Election Outlook — Issue 5 (84 days until Election Day)

PRESIDENTIAL

News from the Front Lines — Post-Convention Analysis

Both parties’ presidential nominating conventions were held back-to-back during the last weeks of July. Polls conducted during and after the conventions typically show increased support for the nominees immediately following their respective conventions. This year, while Donald Trump pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the days immediately after the Republican convention, Clinton’s post-convention lead over Trump remains in place and grew both nationally and in key states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Over the next several weeks, polling numbers will stabilize, and the next likely opportunity for a significant bump in either candidates’ numbers is the presidential debate on September 26.

Despite Trump’s temporary four-point polling bump following Cleveland, the convention overall negatively impacted the number of voters inclined to vote for him. In Gallup polling, more voters identified themselves as “less likely” to vote for the party’s nominee after the convention than “more likely” for the first time since Gallup began asking the question in 1984. Hillary Clinton’s “more likely” voters are in line with historical averages.

Sprint to the General Election

Republicans: Donald Trump’s choice of Indiana Governor Mike Pence was seen as a way to balance Trump’s outsider status and improvisational style with a seasoned politician. Pence has ties to establishment Republicans on Capitol Hill and support from conservatives aligned with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) who view Trump with some skepticism. His role on the campaign trail is becoming increasingly focused on being a bridge between Trump and Republican voters and leaders wary of the presidential candidate’s brash rhetoric.

After months of being unwilling or unable to raise substantial cash, the Trump campaign announced it raised $80 million in July between his campaign and joint fundraising activities with the Republican National Committee (RNC), giving him $58 million cash on hand. In August, Trump is struggling to reset his campaign narrative after several weeks of non-stop controversy and diminishing support among establishment Republicans. Defections among high-profile Republicans picked up, including Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) and 50 national security professionals who worked for Republican presidents. Trump’s poll numbers nationally and in battleground states are sinking below Hillary Clinton’s, in some cases by double digits, even in traditionally Republican states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. While Clinton is using the Olympics as an opportunity to reach millions of voters with TV ads, Trump’s continued exclusive reliance on free news coverage and aversion to data analytics gives him little control over his message or audience.

Democrats: The Clinton campaign signaled its intentions to deploy resources and staff to Arizona and Georgia, indicating increased confidence it can put red states in play this fall. Clinton and her vice-presidential pick, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), made explicit appeals to disaffected Republicans during the Democratic National Convention and on the campaign trail. Recent polling suggests that message is making inroads as Clinton leads Trump among college-educated whites, a demographic typically won by Republicans. Clinton is running ads in key battleground states such as Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The campaign paused advertising in Colorado and Virginia, potentially a sign that those states may be in Clinton’s column. Priorities USA, a Super PAC backing Clinton, is also continuing to air ads across key states, hitting Trump for his comments mocking a disabled reporter and his spat with the Gold Star Khan family.

Clinton is maintaining a torrid fundraising pace, pulling in $90 million in July. However, her campaign is warning that Trump’s surging fundraising numbers could pose significant challenges and noted that Clinton remains behind President Barack Obama’s 2012 fundraising pace.

Independents: The presidential candidate field grew by one independent when Evan McMullin announced his candidacy on August 8. McMullin is a former CIA officer and current foreign policy advisor for the House Republican Conference but is largely unknown outside of those circles. Although he was very critical of Trump during the primaries, McMullin billed his candidacy as an alternative to both major party candidates. He has support from a Super PAC called Stand Up America, founded by two Republican strategists, but his late entry into the race leaves him few opportunities to compete as most state filing deadlines are passed.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is polling around 10 percent in national polls, but it is unclear whether his candidacy hurts or benefits either of the major party candidates. Polls that include Johnson show no significant difference in the Clinton-Trump margin than polls that do not. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is polling in the low single-digits nationally and only has ballot access in about half of states.

General Election Preview

Battleground States

The race for the White House will likely have a significant impact on down-ballot races and may ultimately determine which party wins control of the Senate. Trump’s struggling poll numbers give Clinton an opening to compete and boost Democratic Senate challengers in states that are traditionally Republican strongholds.

· Florida: Over the past six elections, every winning presidential candidate won the Sunshine State, with the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992. This year, a lack of support for Trump among influential Hispanic Republicans in the state is complicating his efforts to keep the upper hand. Clinton leads by three to six points in most Florida polls.

· Georgia: Georgia has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992, but recent polling shows Clinton up between four to seven points. Clinton’s campaign is investing in ground-game resources to capitalize on her advantage among African Americans, Latinos, and women.

· North Carolina: President Barack Obama’s win in North Carolina in 2008 was an outlier in the past nine presidential election cycles, but an increasing number of younger, highly-educated voters moving to the Tar Heel State make it more competitive now. The state is considered a must-win on the most plausible route to 270 electoral votes for Trump, but Clinton is currently running even, or slightly ahead of him, in the polls.

· Ohio: The last time anyone won the White House without Ohio was in 1960. Clinton pulled ahead of Trump in Ohio polling in August. The state’s large union presence gives Clinton a base of support, but Trump could turn out large numbers of white, working-class voters who are receptive to his promises to fix trade deals and restore manufacturing.

· Pennsylvania: No Republican has won the Keystone State since 1988, and recent polls show Clinton leading Trump by low double-digit margins. Trump’s economic message plays well with blue-collar workers in the western part of the state, but Clinton enjoys heavy support among more highly-educated voters in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Polling Analysis

The three months between now and Election Day will be full of polling numbers, from nationwide horserace numbers to state-specific contests. FiveThirtyEight recently updated its Pollster Ratings that analyzes individual pollsters’ historical accuracy and methodology to assign each a grade from A to F. While nationally-recognized pollsters such as Monmouth University, Washington Post/ABC News, and Selzer & Company all receive A+ grades, more partisan pollsters such as Rassmussen Reports (traditionally Republican-leaning) and Global Strategy Group (traditionally Democratic-leaning) receive C+ grades.

SENATE

Senate Republicans continue to distance themselves from Donald Trump in hopes of preserving their majority this fall. Recent polling shows their efforts may be paying off with Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) both running ahead of Trump in recent polling. However, Democrats are aggressively working to expand the map of competitive races as they seek to pick up five seats to flip the chamber. Races in states such as Arizona, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, and Missouri are moving onto the target list as strong Democratic recruits, coupled with Trump’s increasingly erratic candidacy, could push these races into battlegrounds.

News from the Front Lines

· Arizona: Ahead of the August 30 primary, incumbent Republican Senator John McCain continues his awkward embrace of Trump, who decisively won Arizona’s presidential primary but remains deeply unpopular with the state’s Latino population. Conservatives are hopeful that State Senator Kelli Ward can knock off McCain in the primary, but polls show her with a large deficit.

· California: President Barack Obama and California Governor Jerry Brown endorsed California Attorney General Kamala Harris in her bid to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. Harris faces fellow Democrat Representative Loretta Sanchez in the November election after the two garnered the most votes in the state’s spring top-two primary. Sanchez harshly criticized Obama’s decision, calling him part of the nation’s “political establishment.” Polls show Harris with a sizable lead over Sanchez.

· Florida: Democratic Representative Alan Grayson is facing increasing pressure to withdraw ahead of the August 30 primary after POLITICO revealed two decades of domestic abuse claims from his ex-wife. Two prominent progressive organizations withdrew their endorsements of Grayson, four of his senior campaign staffers quit, and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) both called on Grayson to withdraw. Grayson is strongly denying the accusations and refusing to quit the race against fellow Democratic Representative Patrick Murphy. Polling shows both candidates with strong deficits against incumbent Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who faces a primary challenge from businessman Carlos Beruff. Rubio and Murphy are expected to face off in the November election.

· Georgia: Despite signs Georgia could shift into a battleground state in the fall, incumbent Republican Senator Johnny Isakson is receiving support from several of the state’s prominent Democrats, including Democratic U.S. Representative David Scott, who calls Isakson his friend and partner. Other Democrats, such as former Governor Roy Barnes and former Senator Sam Nunn, donated money to Isakson’s re-election bid. A recent poll shows Isakson up only six points on Democrat Jim Barksdale at 48 percent to 42 percent with Libertarian Allen Buckley pulling five percent.

· Indiana: Former Democratic Senator Evan Bayh made a surprise announcement last month that he would seek the Senate seat he vacated six years ago, giving Democrats a top-level recruit in what now becomes a key battleground state. In addition to his state-wide name recognition, Bayh also brings his massive $10 million campaign war chest. The DSCC released a poll alongside Bayh’s announcement showing that he holds a double-digit lead over Republican Representative Todd Young with 54 percent of voters backing Bayh and 33 percent backing Young. Republican Super PACs are already on the airwaves with Freedom Partners Action Fund and Senate Leadership Fund both dropping $1 million in ads targeting Bayh. Prior to Bayh’s announcement, Young was widely expected to win the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Dan Coats. Republicans are hoping that current Governor Mike Pence’s presence as Trump’s running mate will help drive up voter turnout to boost Young.

· North Carolina: Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr says that this race will be his last, and he faces a formidable challenge from Democratic State Representative Deborah Ross. Polls show Burr leading Ross by single digits in a race that both parties are targeting as a top battleground in November. Ross narrowly outraised Burr in the second quarter, pulling in $2.1 million to Burr’s $1.6 million.

· Ohio: Incumbent Republican Senator Rob Portman continues to outperform Trump in statewide polls. While Trump is either tied or losing to Clinton in recent polling, Portman is maintaining his lead over former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Portman also secured endorsements from the Teamsters and Mine Workers, as well as Local 18 of the International Union of Operating Engineers. Both labor groups previously supported Strickland in his gubernatorial bids. Outside organizations are investing heavily on both sides with over $30 million already spent in the state and more to follow.

· Pennsylvania: Recent polling shows Democrat Katie McGinty leading incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey by a small but growing margin. McGinty is receiving heavy support from outside groups such as Senate Majority PAC, EMILY’s List, and Planned Parenthood, among others, who already poured over $11 million into the race collectively. Toomey is receiving support from groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Koch-backed Freedom Partners Action Fund, and the Club for Growth.

· Wisconsin: Former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold won his primary and will face incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson in November in a rematch of their 2010 race. Feingold is building a significant lead in recent polling, and outside groups may be conceding the race as Freedom Partners and the National Republican Senatorial Committee cancelled scheduled advertising buys for August.

Polling Projections
 
 Cook Political Report Projections:

Rothenberg/Gonzales Projections:

RealClearPolitics Projections:

Projections for the 2016 Senate races not yet released.

FiveThirtyEight Projections:

Projections for the 2016 Senate races not yet released.

New York Times Projections:

Projections for the 2016 Senate races not yet released.

HOUSE

Down-ballot candidates in a tumultuous presidential election year face unique challenges in differentiating themselves from an unpopular nominee at the top of the ticket, particularly since Americans are voting straight-party-line ballots at the highest rate in decades. House Republicans are struggling to thread the needle and, while not abandoning Trump, many are making more decisive statements against him as his poll numbers plummet and House races pass the primary season. Democrats have no intention of letting opponents off the hook and continue to tie Republican candidates to Trump’s controversies in ads and on the campaign trail.

News from the Front Lines

· CA-17: California’s top-two primary system resulted in a number of intra-party general election races, including eight-term incumbent Democrat Mike Honda’s Silicon Valley seat. Honda is facing an ethics investigation over use of official resources to benefit his campaign that has gone on for a year, and Democratic opponent Ro Khanna is making it a central theme of his campaign. Khanna beat Honda in the June 7 primary by 2,000 votes and outraised him by a 2-to-1 margin, and the rematch in November is likely to be a close race.

· CA-25: Democratic gains in voter registration in Republican incumbent Steve Knight’s district is making his bid for a second term against Democrat Bryan Caforio difficult. The district is 40 percent Hispanic, and while Knight beat Caforio by almost 20 points in the June primary, Democrats are stepping up support for their candidate in November. Caforio has support from a myriad of outside groups, including local labor organizations, the CA Democratic Party, and the DCCC Red to Blue Program. Knight is not without support, including from the NRCC Patriot Program and the California Fraternal Order of Police, but in the year of Trump, Democrats feel good about their chances to win this seat.

· CO-06: Republican incumbent Mike Coffman represents a district that is 20 percent Latino in a year when rhetoric at the presidential level is driving high Democratic voter registration among that group of voters. While many vulnerable House Republicans are wringing their hands over how to deal with the Trump-effect, Coffman is ahead of the curve in taking decisive action to distance himself from his party’s nominee. In a recent ad, which he also released in Spanish, he states point blank that he will “stand up” to a President Trump. The NRCC supports Coffman through its Patriot Program, and he has outside support from Koch-backed Americans for Progress. His opponent, Democratic State Senator Morgan Carroll, is on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list and has support from EMILY’s List and Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper. The district is rated a Toss-Up.

· FL-23: Democratic Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz continues to lead her primary opponent Tim Canova ahead of their August 30 matchup according to recent polling. Despite negative headlines from the fallout of the DNC hack and Wasserman Schultz’s resignation as chair of the Democratic National Committee, she demonstrated her deep knowledge of her district during a televised debate with Canova. Wasserman Schultz, who is endorsed by President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton, is expected to defeat Canova and sail to re-election in the fall.

· HI-01: Democratic Representative Mark Takai, who was not running for re-election, passed away on July 20 after almost a year battling pancreatic cancer. The special election to fill the seat will be held during the November 8 general election. Former Representative Colleen Hanabusa won the Democratic primary over the weekend and likely will coast to election in November.

· IA-03: Republican Representative Rod Blum is facing an uphill re-election campaign against Democrat Monica Vernon. Until recently, the NRCC left him off of its Patriot Program, which helps vulnerable GOP incumbents. Blum lost favor with his party when he joined the failed attempt to oust John Boehner as Speaker of the House last year. The NRCC is now supporting him, but President Obama carried the district by a 56–43 margin.

· KS-01: Republican Representative Tim Huelskamp became the fourth incumbent to lose a primary election this cycle when physician Roger Marshall defeated him by a solid 57 to 43 percent on August 2. Huelskamp was a member of the House Freedom Caucus, a group of the most conservative lawmakers who often oppose House leadership on policy and tactics, and was removed from the Agriculture Committee in 2012 after breaking with his party on several key votes. Marshall highlighted that incident, as well as Huelskamp’s vote against the Farm Bill in 2014, to gain support in the heavily agriculture-based district. The race was seen as a proxy war between establishment Republicans and hardline conservatives. Heavy outside spending by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Kansas Farm Bureau aided Marshall. Meanwhile, the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity went to bat for Huelskamp. Marshall faces an easy general election in the heavily red district against independent Alan LaPolice.

· MI-01: Republican Dan Benishek is retiring from this Upper Peninsula district, giving Democrats a chance in a district they see as critical to their efforts to take back the House. Demographically, the 1st District is predominately white, rural, and blue-collar, suggesting that Trump’s message could be well received, but local Democrats have a strong organization and their candidate, Lon Johnson, is an effective fundraiser. On the Republican side, retired Marine General Jack Bergman won his party’s nomination over two challengers, one of whom, State Senator Jason Allen, was endorsed by Benishek.

· MN-02: Conservative Republican talk radio host Jason Lewis won his state party’s endorsement earlier in the year and won the primary on August 9. During the primary, concerns over Lewis’ history of brash statements led retiring Republican incumbent John Kline to endorse businesswoman Darlene Miller, but Lewis has high name recognition in the district from his time on the radio. He will face Democrat Angie Craig, who was unchallenged in her primary. While Craig has support from the DCCC and EMILY’s List, the NRCC is not yet offering support for Lewis. Republicans’ reluctance to fully support Lewis prompted a ratings shift from Toss-up to Lean D in the Cook Political Report.

· NY-21: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal between the United States and 12 Asia-Pacific countries, is becoming a hot-button issue in national politics this cycle, and Democratic challenger Mike Derrick made it the focal point of a TV ad against incumbent Republican Representative Elise Stefanik. He claims that Stefanik “sided with her Wall Street donors and fast-tracked” TPP, then cites Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) as rightly opposing the deal. Hillary Clinton is not mentioned even though she is on record opposing TPP. Derrick previously claimed that “Trump is right on TPP” in his first ad of the cycle. Stefanik has not endorsed Trump.

· TN-04: Republican Representative Scott DesJarlais survived his third competitive primary on August 4, defeating 28-year-old Grant Starrett by 51 percent to 44 percent. Starrett outraised and out-organized DesJarlais throughout the primary season but refused to make DesJarlais’ past scandals an issue in the race, instead running to the right of the incumbent. The seat is solidly Republican so DesJarlais faces an easy road in November against Democrat Steven Reynolds.

· WI-01: Speaker of the House Paul Ryan easily defeated his primary challenger, Paul Nehlen, an avid Trump supporter, in the August 9 primary by 85 to 15 percent. The race gained national attention when Donald Trump declined to endorse Ryan in the weeks leading up to the election but reversed course shortly before the primary.

· WI-08: Marine Corps veteran Mike Gallagher is the Republican nominee after the August 9 primary to replace retiring Republican Representative Reid Ribble. Gallagher had Ribble’s endorsement going into the primary, and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan pledged his support shortly after the primary. Democrats view this district as a prime pick-up opportunity and have nearly $1 million in airtime reserved for the fall to support their candidate, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson.

Polling Projections

Cook Political Report Projections:

Rothenberg/Gonzales Projections:

RealClearPolitics Projections:

Projections for the 2016 House elections not yet released.

FiveThirtyEight Projections:

Projections for the 2016 House elections not yet released.

New York Times Projections:

Projections for the 2016 House elections not yet released.