If someone can predict the stock market better than a hedge fund (hell, better than an index fund), why should they be interested in working for the mere chance of winning a prize on this scale? Seems they would do better on their own — or, at the very least, would be able to sell their service at a better price.
I guess you’ve provided one reason: anonymous payment in bitcoin. I guess that has an appeal for AI devs … or other people … who are banned from doing this sort of thing or are heavily scrutinized by regulators.
Here’s a question to you, Numerai. What if all those anonymous AI experts aren’t really AI experts at all, but people using standard models supplemented by insider information? Or people illegally manipulating the market? Frankly, this seems more likely to me, since the kind of AI expert that could do this wouldn’t need you to make money.