Delegate-Counting: It Will Take Two To Stop Trump
A few weeks ago I published “Why you want a 3-man race, for now” and we saw exactly why that is the case on Super Tuesday.
Trump was, again, held to about 34% of the vote. He was expected to win 9–10 states, but won 7, and almost lost 3 more. His delegate haul is now under the 50% threshold. He also both states that were open only to Republican voters. He looks strong in the deep south and vulnerable in caucus states, closed primaries, and the midwest. All good for Team #NeverTrump
Cruz had a good night in terms of wins - and thanks to Texas - but a less good night in terms of where things go from here. He won Texas by a larger-than-expected margin which gave him a nice delegate haul, and added wins in Oklahoma and Alaska, which led to split delegates. The less good news is he lost by 22 in Georgia and 15 each in both Alabama and Tennessee, where Trump continues to over-perform with Evangelicals and conservative voters. He did hit the delegate thresholds in all three. He also finished with under 10% in VT and MA, which shows some June problems.
Rubio also had a mixed night. He won Minnesota and was very close to pulling off an upset in Virgina. He finished 2nd in Georgia and met the delegate threshold in Tennessee. But the gut punch was just missing the thresholds in Texas, Alabama, and Vermont, so his delegate haul came in lower than anticipated.
After reviewing the map, it seems the only two options are an outright victory by Trump, or a brokered convention that results in Cruz-Rubio or Rubio-Cruz. And wouldn’t that be a fitting end to the primary race of all time?
Now, TO THE MAP. Where we go from here:
March 5:
Kansas has 40 proportional delegates with a 10% threshold (by CD and Statewide). Cruz, Rubio, and Trump will likely all clear that with ease and any can win. Look for a very evenly split delegate haul of 10–15 each.
Kentucky has 46 delegates, all statewide proportional with just a 5% threshold. The only recent poll (2/22–2/26 WKU) had it Trump 35%, Rubio 22%, Cruz 15%. It’s a closed primary and a caucus. ANything can happen, but everyone will get a good chunk of delegates again, none likely a majority.
Louisiana is a closed primary with proportional allocation by CD and Statewide (20% required). This could be an Alabama-like finish, which would be good for Trump.
Maine only has 23 delegates and they are handed out proportionally with a 10% minimum. It becomes winner-take-all at 50%, but Rubio and Kasich should be able to keep him below that number.
Takeaway: 3 caucuses, all closed primaries. Trump will remain delegate-limited coming out of here.
March 6
Puerto Rico has 23 delegates that are proportional at 20% and winner-take-all at 50%. It seems like a good opportunity for Rubio given the proximity of Florida and his Spanish fluency. Again, who knows.
March 8
Hawaii has just 19 delegates, all proportional.
Idaho has 32 delegates proportional at 20%, WTA at 50%.
Michigan has 59 delegates, handed out proportionally at 15% threshold. It would be winner-take-all at 50%, so having Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich all in will likely stop Trump from hitting that, though he has led in the polls there.
Mississippi has 40 delegates that offer a winner-take-most scenario like Alabama, by CD and statewide. Threshold is at 15%. This is the end of voting for the South.
March 12
Washington D.C. has 19 delegates proportional statewide with 15% minimum.
End of Proportional Requirement
That’s the end of mandatory proportional rules. All of the candidates will likely pick up a number of delegates, and Trump will likely be stuck below 50% of the total handed out. That’s the good news. The bad news is, coming in 2nd and 3rd in many states is no longer good enough.
March 15
This is probably the most important day of the primary. It’s one where Trump is on the fence between sweeping up around 260 delegates and likely positioning himself for the win, or losing almost all of the delegates and making a brokered convention highly likely.
Florida is make-or-break for Rubio, and possibly the entire #NeverTrump effort. At this point, Florida can probably only be won by either Rubio or Trump. Too many votes are already being cast, and Cruz would be unable to catapult past Trump even if Rubio dropped out, which he will not. The 99 delegate haul is given to the winner of the state. If Rubio gets that 99, it’s a huge blow to Trump’s chances for 1237 delegates. He has a number of advantages. Rubio has a pre-existing organization and has likely been turning out voters during the early voting stages, a benefit that Cruz successfully took advantage of in Texas. Florida is also a closed-primary state - a situation where Trump has tended to perform poorly - and registration changes had to be made weeks ago to vote. The large Cuban population could also prove beneficial. The only poll using GOP-registration rolls had it a close 34–27% race. I am now officially a #TeamCruz AND #TeamRubio guy. Realize that a Trump win in Florida will likely give Trump the nomination as the dominoes would completely collapse in his favor.
Ohio has 66 votes that home-stater John Kasich is also trying to swing. A win by Kasich is another boost for team #NeverTrump but means a 4-man race will go on. A loss by Kasich wouldn’t be devastating so long as Rubio wins Florida.
Missouri has 52 delegates that hands out 5 delegates for the winner of each of 8 congressional districts, and another 12 delegates for statewide winner.
North Carolina has a prize of 72 delegates, but they are all handed out proportionally with no minimum threshold. This is a situation in which the more candidates as Trump would be kept to a minimum.
Regardless of the candidate you like, the ideal situation would be a Rubio win in Florida, a Kasich win in Ohio, and perhaps a Missouri win by Cruz, with NC splitting up evenly. If the three candidates make a play in all three states, it increases the likelihood of a Trump runaway.
March 22
Arizona - 55 Delegates winner-take-all. Toss-up
Utah - 40 Delegates, proportional at 15% or winner-take-all at 50%. If Rubio is still active, should be a strong state for him.
Does someone leave now?
By now, there will be a few scenarios. Worst Case: Rubio and Kasich both fail to win their states and Trump now has a fairly healthy delegate lead over Cruz. It’s highly unlikely Cruz could win either, even if they were to drop ahead of time. Even if Cruz performs well in other states, he will probably be well over 200 delegates behind in this scenario given the proportionality rules of the contests, and Trump will likely be well above the 50% threshold. The April Map plays into Trump’s hands nicely if Kasich and Rubio are out.
Best scenario: At least one of Rubio and Kasich win their home state, denying Trump a huge haul. If Rubio wins that 99 delegates and gets the same proportions he has been, he catches up close to Cruz for 2nd (whose delegate lead is thanks to his home state), but Trump is kept in check. We head into April with Trump well below the total % needed.
The April Cruz Problem
If you think a Trump-Cruz two-man race is the way to go, the time for that is not in April. This is where either Kasich or Rubio would, ideally, still be strong. Cruz will likely be behind Trump in delegates at this point in any scenario. With Cruz’s Southern Strategy not playing out as planned, he is still playing catch-up in a brutal month.
April 5
Wisconsin has 42 delegates, winner-take all by CD and statewide. Trump has not polled exceptionally well here, so Cruz/Rubio could win the state.
April 19
New York has 99 delegates. This is Trump’s home state, and 50% or more would mean Trump gets all the delegates. A 2-man race between Cruz and Trump would likely ensure that. Under 50%, delegates are handed out in a 2–1 fashion by congressional district, and a 3 or 4-man race could take away 25–35 delegates from Trump.
April 22 — The Northeast Primary (Cruz’s 3 worst states have been VT and MA — both below 10%, and NH (<12%) It’s hard to imagine these states wouldn’t be runaways in a 2-man race. However, Trump could once again be limited in delegates with Rubio or Kasich.
Connecticut has 28 delegates, winner-take all by CD and 20% statewide threshold or 50% winner-take-all.
Delaware — 16 Delegates winner-take-all
Maryland — 38 Delegates WTA statewide and by CD
Pennsylvania — 54 Delegates overall (loophole) with 17 winner-take-all
Rhode Island — 19 delegates, proportional with 10% threshold
Now What
Two scenarios. If either/both Rubio/Kasich held there own on March 15, Trump doesn’t run away with April. He likely still has a delegate lead, but it’s likely below 50%. If Rubio and Kasich faltered on March 15, Trump likely headed into April with a big lead, and leaves April with a 400+ lead, and probably above the threshold. A 1–1 Cruz race heading into April would likely be a disaster.
However, there is some hope after April. At this point, we could still go strong with a 3-man race.
May 3rd
Indiana has 59 delegates winner take all by Congressional district and statewide, not necessarily a Trumpish state.
May 10th
Nebraska has 36 delegates, winner-take-all by statewide vote. Also not necessarily a pro-Trump state.
West Virginia directly elects 22 delegates, and has 9 CD WTA.
May 17th
Oregon has 28 delegates, proportional by statewide, no threshold.
May 24th
Washington has 44 delegates, proportional at 20% or WTA at 50%.
June 7th — The Big Finale
On June 7th, is when it all comes to a close. If Trump has been kept in check up until now, the stronger of Cruz/Rubio probably needs to be left 1–1 against Trump. You can’t split the vote any longer. A candidate must also win the majority of votes in at least 8 contests to be nominated, so whoever is closest to that threshold would likely need to be the one to go on.
California has 172 delegates, almost all of which are handed out winner-take-all by Congressional district.
Montana has 27 delegates winner-take-all
New Jersey has 51 delegates, winner-take-all
New Mexico has 24 delegates winner-take-all
South Dakota has 29 delegates winner-take all
It realistically looks like there are two options. Either Trump wins the nomination outright, or the combination of Rubio and Cruz (and maybe Kasich) splits off enough of the votes from Trump to keep him around 40% of the total delegates. Unless Cruz shows some incredible strength in the northeast, he will have a hard time ever getting to the 1,237 needed delegates to secure the nomination outright. A lack of victories in his strong states in the south will make that near-impossible. Rubio could win many states 1–1, but he will never get the chance as Cruz will rightly stay in, and Kasich will as well. But again, the combination could stop Trump.
