Would it matter if the 6S outsells the iPhone 7 over the next year?

Or: Why 2017's “last years model” might not just be the iPhone 7

While the release of new iPhones is all over the media the closer it gets, last years model is, in my opinion, the thing to watch this year. Will customers who demand a headphone jack switch to Android, will they buy a 6S or maybe even an SE?

With the maturation of smartphones in general, matching features can usually also be found on Android phones. But I think people interested in iPhones usually tend to stay with their platform. Not even the price point, usually a major driver when it comes to the buying decision, seems to change that. Apple customers expect to pay more. And they are willingly doing so, be it for quality, iOS user experience, privacy concerns or that mysterious Apple.. appeal(?).

The 6S brought with it 3D Touch, a new, distinguishing feature to be sure. But I have met iPhone users who did not know they had it and there are many articles out there questioning the (current) usefulness. Before buying my iPhone SE, the lack of 3D Touch was a concern as I love new technology and want to play with it. But in the end the screen size was just more important to me.

The SE seems to be doing better than expected for Apple and I bet the iPhone 6 is also faring well. It lacks new features and yes, the A8 chip is slower than the A9. I just think we have reached a point where processor improvements (in smartphones) are less appreciable and new tech like 3D Touch not (yet?) essential enough.

Which brings us to the upcoming iPhone 7 and the removal of an essential technology: the headphone jack. Whether it should stay forever is debatable and I have no clear answer/opinion on that. But if somebody cares for it, get the soon-to-be previous generation 6S. It will be just as fine a smartphone as it was a year ago. Only.. cheaper.

To my knowledge, newer iPhones always outsold their predecessors while being offered at the same time. It is a guess, though, as sales specifics were, as far as I know, not disclosed. The drop in average sales price for iPhones in Q3 2016 was attributed to the high demand for the SE. Maybe it was a popular iPhone 6. If the 6S outsells the iPhone 7 over the next year.. now that would be an interesting situation.

I think profit-wise, it could be a wash. Yes, the phone is 100 bucks cheaper. But why not use those savings on more storage or as a down payment for an Apple Watch? In my case I decided to spend the savings on more iCloud storage. Be it services, an upgrade or new hardware, I think there is a good chance that customers will still spend their money with Apple. Plus, production prices certainly also shrunk for the older tech.

But would it be a clear sign that customers are not willing to give up the headphone jack, if the 6S keeps being popular? What sales ratio would turn it into a warning sign? I expect the design for the 2017 iPhone is probably already finalized. Without a headphone jack. But what about a future last years model?

To my luck, Apple did not abandon the 4 inch form factor. The SE even received a spec bump over the 5S with the current A9 and more RAM. If enough people choose the 6S over the next year, I think 2017's last years model might not just be the iPhone 7 but rather a mash-up of the 6S and the 7.