The 2024 Seattle Mariners: My Thoughts and Predictions
It’s baseball season. Last offseason, I wrote about how the 2023 Seattle Mariners would be better than the 2022 Seattle Mariners and while the team ERA+ improved and their OPS+ stayed the same, the 2023 Mariners failed to be better where it mattered: the standings. My thoughts regarding the 2023 Mariners proved to be a mess, to say the least. If at first you don’t succeed, try again.
My predictions and thoughts are going to be done differently than last years, breaking down each position group starting with catchers and ending with relief pitching. Each player will also feature their projections as long as my own individual predictions for their statlines and possible accolades. I will also cover a few depth options, hot takes, trade deadline predictions, etc. Hope you all enjoy.
Catchers
Mitch Garver
The highest paid position player free agent in the Jerry Dipoto era is now Mitch Garver. Odds are he won’t catch often, but I’m including him in the catchers group anyway simply because I won’t have a designated hitters group. I mostly covered my thoughts regarding Mitch Garver when we first signed him, so I won’t reiterate everything that I’ve already said before.
The question with Mitch Garver is can he stay healthy? He’s been unable to for most of his career and his production has been inconsistent with it. He had a fantastic 2023 season with the Rangers and while the projections don’t believe he’ll sustain that, they do believe he will still be a solid contributor, settling in with a wRC+ around 110–120, which would be great. His OPS has been a rollercoaster since 2018, being as low as .511 (in 2020) to as high as .995 (in 2019). It’s tough to predict which Mitch Garver the Mariners are going to get, but I think he’ll be solid in the end.
My Prediction: 110 Games, .245/.345/.430 (.775 OPS), 24.5 K%, 12.5 BB%, 117 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR, 18 HR.
Cal Raleigh
Last season I wrote that Raleigh probably didn’t have too much room to improve and it was fairly accurate. His AVG, OBP, K%, and BB% all improved from 2022, but his slugging took a considerable stepback. That didn’t stop Raleigh from clubbing 30 homers and leading all catchers in home runs for the second consecutive season, though. The biggest step that Raleigh took was actually on the defensive side, vastly improving on throwing runners out from behind the plate.
On the offensive side, it took Raleigh quite awhile to get going. Sure, he had the two homer games in Toronto and Boston, but through July 20th he had an OPS just .698, a far cry from his .774 OPS the year before. His ground ball rate was up, his barrel rate was lower, his hard hit rate was lower. It just wasn’t the same Cal Raleigh we were accustomed to seeing in 2022.
The entirety of the 2022 Season: .211/.284/.489 (.774 OPS), .330 wOBA, 120 wRC+, 29.4 K%, 9.2 BB%, 15.4 Barrel%, 43.5 Hard Hit%, 47.8 Pull%, 28.5 GB%, 55.7 FB%, 15.8 LD%, 19.1 HR/FB%, 36.0 O-Swing%, 78.4 Z-Swing%
March 30th, 2023 — July 20th, 2023: .217/.299/.399 (.698 OPS), .303 wOBA, 96 wRC+, 25.5 K%, 10.2 BB%, 11.4 Barrel%, 38.8 Hard Hit%, 48.8 Pull%, 35.3 GB%, 46.8 FB%, 17.9 LD%, 12.8 HR/FB%, 33.6 O-Swing%, 74.1 Z-Swing%
July 22nd, 2023 — End of Season: .250/.314/.526 (.840 OPS), .354 wOBA, 131 wRC+, 30.6 K%, 8.6 BB%, 14.2 Barrel%, 43.2 Hard Hit%, 54.2 Pull%, 26.5 GB%, 51.0 FB%, 22.6 LD%, 22.8 HR/FB%, 35.5 O-Swing%, 70.5 Z-Swing%
Do I think Raleigh will replicate that last stretch of success into a full 162 game season? Of course not. The improvements are clear, though. While he did chase more and was less aggressive in the zone, he was elevating and pulling the ball, which is what a hitter like Raleigh should be doing. A huge part in Cal’s turnaround was his performance against four seamers. Through July 20th, Cal had a .288 wOBA and .189 AVG on four seamers, which is obviously very bad. After July 20th, Cal had a .365 wOBA and .241 AVG. He saw his hard hit and barrel rates go from 39.7% and 10.3%, respectively, to 56.4% and 18.2%, respectively. If Cal can consistently hit the fastball, he should be just fine.
My Prediction: 135 Games, .237/.311/.465 (.776 OPS), 29.3 K%, 8.5 BB%, 117 wRC+, 5.2 fWAR, 31 HR, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove
Seby Zavala
Out goes Tom Murphy, in comes Seby Zavala. Zavala was acquired from the Diamondbacks in the trade that sent Eugenio Suarez to Arizona. Zavala has no minor league options left, so there’s a very good chance that his spot on the Opening Day roster is secure. When it comes to his bat, there’s really not much to say about it. He doesn’t walk much, he strikes out way too much, and he doesn’t really hit for power at all. Even in his 2022 season, a season in which he had a .729 OPS and 110 wRC+, he overperformed his expected numbers. He’s a very bad hitter, no way around it.
What Zavala does offer is defense. He’s been a good defender the past two seasons, especially with blocking and framing. He took a step back throwing out runners in 2023, but still blocked and framed really well. Even with his defensive skills, I don’t expect Zavala to last very long in Seattle. The bat is just horrendous and I believe he gets DFA’d before the calendar hits June.
My Prediction: 21 Games, .152/.205/.220 (.425 OPS), 39.3 K%, 7.5 BB%, 40 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR, 1 HR
Depth Options
The Mariners catching depth is… not great. Up first will be Blake Hunt, acquired from the Rays at the beginning of the offseason. Hunt had a solid season in the minors in 2023 and is the only catcher in the system who is even close to making the bigs right now. Hunt is who I believe will replace Zavala early on in the season.
Other options include Jake Anchia, who’s an awful hitter, and of course Harry Ford. Ford will probably spend the entirety of 2024 in Double-A, but if he crushes it there then who knows? I also believe Ford will be seeing extended time away from the catcher spot.
Infielders
Ty France
It’s a make or break season for Ty France. After becoming an All-Star in 2022, France struggled mightily in 2023 and was nearly non-tendered. The projections believe Ty will have a bounceback season, but even those projections are far from his production in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. With France only having two seasons left on his contract, this season will be do or die for his future with the Mariners.
The big story with France this offseason was that he went to Driveline. Is Driveline the Lord and Savior of resurrecting hitters? Of course… not. After helping J.P. Crawford last offseason, many M’s fans, myself included, are always intrigued when a player goes to Driveline. It’s obviously not as simple as “go to driveline, get better, end of story.” There’s a reason why I’m excited that Ty France went to Driveline as opposed to being excited about other Mariners players such as Taylor Trammell or Canaan Smith-Njigba (when he was in the organization): France isn’t a dead-red hitter. Trammell is the prototypical AAAA player; rake in the minor leagues, but get exposed by breaking and offspeed pitches at the big league level. France has a history of being successful against pitches like curveballs, sliders, changeups, and sweepers. The problem with France is that his production against four seamers plummeted. The expected numbers on four seamers would indicate he got a tad unlucky, which is a common theme for France in 2023, but even those numbers were nowhere near his 2021 and 2022 numbers against fastballs.
When you look at some of the raw numbers from France’s 2023, it looks like he improved from 2022. The barrel rate, hard hit rate, walk rate, sweet spot rate, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, xwOBACON, and max exit velocity were all improved upon. The ground ball rate went down, the fly ball rate went up, the line drive rate went up, the pull rate was up. Even his numbers against offspeed pitches were significantly better than they were in 2022. So what happened? He simply didn’t have the power in his bat. He also chased at career high amount and his whiff rate was the highest it’s been since 2020. His bat speed looked super sluggish all season and he really struggled to hit fastballs on the inner third of the plate, which is something he had success against in 2022. My belief in France this year stems from the same thing that helped J.P.; increased bat speed. Maybe I’m putting too much trust into an offseason program, but I think France has a solid bounceback season.
My Prediction: 145 Games, .275/.350/.440 (.790 OPS), 15.5 K%, 7.0 BB%, 121 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR, 22 HR
Josh Rojas
The projections do not like Josh Rojas. It’s not hard to see why considering that Rojas placed in the 10th percentile or worse in xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% in 2023. After two solid seasons with Arizona, 2023 was a nightmare for Rojas in the desert, finishing with a 62 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR. Following the trade to Seattle, Rojas was much better, finishing with a 104 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR over 46 games with the Mariners. His ground ball rate went down, his flyball rate shot up to a career high, and he drastically changed his pull rate, going from 34.7% with Arizona to 50.5% with Seattle. He also chased less and attacked more pitches in the zone, but he whiffed a lot more in the zone too.
Rojas was in line to get the lions share of playing time at second base for the Mariners, but the acquisition of Jorge Polanco all but rules that out now. He’ll be pushed to 3rd base, where he mostly played for Arizona, and no one is quite sure of how his playing time looks right now. Will Luis Urias play full time? Will they platoon? We don’t really know yet. While I do think Rojas was overperforming, there are some things to look at in a positive light despite having a noodle bat. Rojas suddenly becoming a hitter who pulls fly balls was a treat to see. It’s really the only time that Rojas has done that, though, so we’ll have to see if it’s a permanent adjustment for Rojas. If it is, I think he’ll be an average contributor at the bottom of the lineup.
My Prediction: 84 Games, .250/.305/.380 (.685 OPS), 23.0 K%, 8.0 BB%, 95 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR, 7 HR
Jorge Polanco
The carousel of Mariners second baseman since Robinson Cano continues with the acquisition of Jorge Polanco. Like a few others from this off-seasons acquisitions, Polanco has dealt with the injury bug the past couple of seasons, only playing 104 games in 2022 then 80 in 2023. When healthy, Polanco has consistently put up solid numbers, posting a wRC+ above 110 in every full season since 2018. While he probably isn’t the player he was during his 2019 and 2021 seasons, Polanco still offers a solid bat at the second base position, posting the 8th highest wRC+ among second basemen with at least 750 plate appearances since 2022.
Polanco set career-highs in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, max exit velocity, and flyball rate in 2023, but it came with a career-high strikeout rate as well. Polanco isn’t a dead-pull hitter, but he pulls his flyballs at a good rate. He’s always been a good fastball hitter and while he had great results against changeups, he drastically overperformed his expected numbers on it. There lies Polanco’s biggest flaw: he struggles with non-fastballs. It’s not egregiously bad, he has had prior success against them, but he struggled against them in 2023. It’s something to keep an eye on.
Polanco suffered through three separate injured list stints in 2023, so that definitely didn’t help his season. He began the year on the IL then went on it twice in the summer. Here are his numbers broken down:
April 21st, 2023 — May 17th, 2023: .284/.327/.484 (.811 OPS), 123 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 5.9 BB%, 14.1 Barrel%, 23 Games Played, went on IL after this.
June 1st, 2023 — June 8th, 2023: .120/.154/.320 (.474 OPS), 21 wRC+, 19.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 15.0 Barrel%, 7 Games, went back on IL after this.
July 28th, 2023 — August 10th, 2023: .182/.321/.318 (.639 OPS), 86 wRC+, 28.3 K%, 15.1 BB%, 10.3 Barrel%, 13 Games.
August 11th, 2023 — October 1st, 2023: .283/.374/.500 (.874 OPS), 141 wRC+, 27.0 K%, 12.9 BB%, 14.4 Barrel%, 37 Games.
When he was healthy, he was producing. Obviously, health is the big question mark with Polanco, just like it is with Haniger, Garver, Urias, etc., but there’s reason to be optimistic about Polanco being the one to end the second base curse for the Mariners. One can hope, anyway.
My Prediction: 135 Games, .255/.345/.435 (.780 OPS), 24.5 K%, 11.5 BB%, 118 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR, 21 HR
Luis Urias
Despite an awful season in 2023, the projections believe Luis Urias will enjoy a bounceback to his 2021–22 self. Urias did suffer through injuries in 2023 and it’s probably a major factor in the production falling off, but even then I think the projections are being fairly generous. A big positive to Urias’ game is that, even during the injury season, he excels at drawing walks. It gives him a decent enough floor if the bat can’t rebound.
Urias has never been a guy that stings the ball, with his career-highs in barrel rate and hard-hit rate being 6.1% and 40.5%, respectively. Both of those were set in 2021 when Urias had a .790 OPS over 150 games. Even in 2022, Urias saw his AVG, SLG, OPS, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, xwOBACON, Hard-Hit%, Barrel%, K%, BB%, and max exit velocity all regress from 2021. While 2023 was definitely hampered by injuries to a degree, there’s a trend of regression from Urias. He’s only 26, so maybe there’s still something left in the tank, but there’s definitely reason for concern with Luis Urias being the Seattle Mariners third baseman. Like I said with Rojas, we’re not sure what the playing time looks like for Urias just yet, but it’s risky either way. Urias at least had solid defensive numbers at the hot corner in 2023 with 1 DRS, 2 OAA, and 18.6 UZR/150. I don’t expect much from Luis Urias.
My Prediction: 72 Games, .205/.305/.340 (.645 OPS), 22.0 K%, 10.5 BB%, 83 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR, 5 HR
J.P. Crawford
The Mariners unofficial team captain. After a breakout offensive campaign in 2023, the projections like J.P. to remain an above average contributor, but nowhere near his 2023 numbers. Even with the fantastic numbers, J.P.’s season didn’t begin very well. Through June 9th, he still looked like 2022 J.P., which was not a good thing. After that, though? He erupted.
March 30th, 2023 — June 9th, 2023: .235/.342/.333 (.675 OPS), 98 wRC+, .307 wOBA, 19.3 K%, 13.4 BB%, 39.6 Hard-Hit%, 2.5 Barrel%, 37.8 FB%, 38.5 GB%, 23.7 LD%, 36.5 Pull%, 24.3 O-Swing%, 59.1 Z-Swing%
June 10th, 2023 — October 1st, 2023: .285/.402/.503 (.905 OPS), 156 wRC+, .390 wOBA, 19.8 K%, 15.5 BB%, 34.1 Hard-Hit%, 6.3 Barrel%, 37.5 FB%, 39.5 GB%, 22.9 LD%, 47.1 Pull%, 20.5 O-Swing%, 61.1 Z-Swing%
Two drastically different samples. He really didn’t change much about his style, either. Still struck out around the same, walked considerably more, chased considerably less, but his batted ball events remained relatively the same. So, what’s the big difference? You already know the answer. He pulled the ball a lot more. Even his production against four seamers, a key difference between 2023 and previous years, was good during the sample where he struggled. Speaking of production against four seamers, J.P. has struggled to slug fastballs for his entire career. He’s always had an average or even slightly above average wOBA against four seamers, but the slugging wasn’t there. That changed in 2023. He slugged .519 on four seamers with a .434 wOBA, both well above the league average. He did struggle with sliders, but he performed well against sinkers, changeups, curveballs, and even splitters. After a slow start, everything clicked for J.P. Crawford.
On the defensive side, it’s still messy. The former Gold Glove winner hasn’t come near his 2020 or even his 2021 defensive numbers the past two seasons. Crawford has -7 DRS and -19 OAA at short since 2022, compared to 14 DRS and 7 OAA from 2020 to 2021. While he still has his flashy plays, his range has become an issue. From 7.6 UZR/150 in 2020 to -8.3 UZR/150 in 2023, it’s only getting worse for Crawford.
Do I think J.P. Crawford will replicate his .280/.400/.500 stretch in 2024? No. I do think the projections are being fairly light on him, though. It’s tough to predict how Crawford will do in 2024, honestly. Does he continue his style of pulling the ball after having an entire career of being an all-fields slap hitter? We will have to see, I do think he will do better than what the projections think, but I also think he takes a step back from his 2023 numbers.
My Prediction: 155 Games, .260/.365/.425 (.790 OPS), 19.0 K%, 13.5 BB%, 120 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR, 20 HR
Dylan Moore
At face value, Dylan Moore had a good season for his role. Unfortunately, D-Mo had a hellish rollercoaster ride towards that final statline. He began the season on the injured list and missed two months before coming back.
First 36 Plate Appearances: .063/.167/.188 (.355 OPS), 1 wRC+, .168 wOBA, 47.2 K%, 11.1 BB%, 40.0 Hard-Hit%, 33.3 Barrel%, 35.5 O-Swing%.
Next 63 Plate Appearances: .364/.444/.800 (1.244 OPS), 239 wRC+, .511 wOBA, 28.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 48.6 Hard-Hit%, 21.6 Barrel%, 35.8 O-Swing%.
Final 66 Plate Appearances: .138/.242/.207 (.449 OPS), 33 wRC+, .214 wOBA, 31.8 K%, 10.6 BB%, 40.5 Hard-Hit%, 5.4 Barrel%, 26.7 O-Swing%.
Despite posting career-highs in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, sweet spot rate, and pull rate, he posted career worsts in strikeout rate, pop-up rate, and production against sliders. Moore has never been a good hitter against sliders, never hitting above .155 against sliders in a single season, but in 2023 he hit .059 with a 48.7 whiff rate and 62.9 strikeout rate. That’s bad. His struggles continued against right handed pitching as well, posting a .647 OPS in 2023 and hasn’t surpassed a .715 OPS vs RHP since 2020. When everyone is healthy, Moore is a platoon utility guy at most. He’s good when he’s in that role. We’ve seen him be good in that role. Let’s hope everyone does their part so Dylan Moore can stay in this role.
My Prediction: 80 Games, .215/.305/.375 (.680 OPS), 31.0 K%, 10.0 BB%, 92 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR, 5 HR
Depth Options
There’s a handful of depth options around the infield this season. Starting with Sam Haggerty, who is a very solid option to have in Triple-A. Hags has posted a 111 wRC+ over 309 plate appearances since 2022. Ryan Bliss, acquired from the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline last season, is nearing major league ready status. After struggling to begin his Mariners organization tenure, Bliss popped off in September and even played in the Arizona Fall League. Samad Taylor, scooped up from Kansas City during the winter, is a new face in the organization. Taylor is very fast and had success at Triple-A in 2023, but struggled over 69 plate appearances at the major league level. Last but not least for the middle infielders group is Cole Young, one of Seattle’s top prospects. Young made it up to High-A in 2023 and posted a 142 wRC+ while nearly walking more than he struck out. Young should start in Double-A Arkansas and if he hits well enough, he could get a call-up later in the season, if needed.
Over to the corners and unfortunately, there’s not much depth here. It’s mostly featured by non-roster invitees who may not even be around once Spring Training ends. Rangel Ravelo and Michael Papierski have the most experience over at first base, while Michael Chavis and Brian Anderson are over at third base. Not a lot of promise here. The one guy with promise, however, is Tyler Locklear.
If not for an injury in the 2023 season, there’s a chance Locklear would be competing for an Opening Day roster spot this spring. Locklear has done nothing but hit since being drafted in 2022 and he did just that in 2023, posting a 162 wRC+ in High-A and 114 wRC+ in Double-A. He hit 3 solo shots in the Double-A playoffs, although that isn’t shown in the final numbers. Like Bliss, Locklear played in the Arizona Fall League and he slashed .284/.415/.473 with an .888 OPS in 94 plate appearances. He has his warts, like expanding the zone. We shall see how he does in 2024.
Outfielders
Luke Raley
Luke Raley was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Jose Caballero in January and looks to be the starting left fielder right now. He can play first base and center field if needed, so the versatility is nice, but I’m not sure how to feel about the bat. At face value, Raley had a fantastic season, but as I wrote at the time of the trade, Raley had a tough second half. There were some injuries that plagued him, but there was a lot of signs that Raley just had a good first few months before the league figured him out.
Raley is 29, turning 30 in September, and only has half a season of success to fall back on. He has massive strikeout and whiff problems, finishing in the 7th percentile and 1st percentile, respectively. He mostly platooned in Tampa Bay, so he wasn’t overexposed to lefties. He performed better away from Tropicana Field in 2023 and even homered at T-Mobile Park last July. Personally, I’m not very high on Luke Raley. Whatever happens, I don’t regret that the trade happened, Jose Caballero was a man without a spot and faded down the stretch just like Raley did. I think by the time the trade deadline rolls around, Luke Raley will be relegated to bench depth and might even be DFA’d or traded since he has no minor league options. This is probably my biggest hot take regarding the current roster and I hope I’m proven wrong, but I’m just not high on Luke Raley at all.
My Prediction: 95 Games, .210/.270/.360 (.630 OPS), 32.5 K%, 6.5 BB%, 78 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR, 8 HR
Mitch Haniger
It was another season riddled with injuries for Mitch Haniger, a common occurrence for him. 2023 was the worst season of his career, setting career-lows in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, wRC+, fWAR, wOBA, K%, BB%, and max exit velocity. His 38.8% pull rate was his lowest since the 2017 season, his 10.9% barrel rate was his lowest since the 2018 season, and his .412 xwOBACON was his lowest since the 2017 season. His wOBA on fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches have all regressed each season since 2021 as well. On the brightside, his whiff and chase rates were his lowest since the 2019 season, he had the lowest ground ball rate of his career, highest fly ball rate of his career, highest line drive rate since 2017, and still had solid barrel and hard-hit numbers. He had a confusing season.
April 24th, 2023 — May 25th, 2023: .193/.226/.295 (.521 OPS), 41 wRC+, .227 wOBA, 29.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 48.4 Hard-Hit%, 8.1 Barrel%, .303 xwOBA, .710 xOPS.
May 26th, 2023 — June 13th, 2023: .283/.358/.483 (.842 OPS), 132 wRC+, .363 wOBA, 22.4 K%, 7.5 BB%, 44.4 Hard-Hit%, 15.6 Barrel%, .379 xwOBA, .885 xOPS.
August 29th, 2023 — September 25th, 2023: .159/.232/.349 (.581 OPS), 58 wRC+, .252 wOBA, 33.3 K%, 8.7 BB%, 47.5 Hard-Hit%, 10.0 Barrel%, .274 xwOBA, .634 xOPS.
There’s a lot of space between each date and the reason for that is because those missing time periods are from when Mitch Haniger was on the injured list. It was a tough season full of injuries, rehab assignments, getting acclimated with a new team in a different league for the first time since 2017, and everything that could’ve gone wrong went wrong. Hopefully with Haniger back in a familiar place, along with his still promising barrel and hard-hit rates, Mitch can have a bounceback season.
My Prediction: 115 Games, .245/.305/.430 (.735 OPS), 25.5 K%, 7.5 BB%, 105 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR, 16 HR
Dominic Canzone
There’s a chance that Canzone doesn’t make the big league team out of camp, but it’s only because Taylor Trammell has no minor league options remaining. I believe that Canzone will begin the year in Tacoma, getting everyday at-bats, while Trammell spends the first month or so in the majors trying to prove he belongs, but will get DFA’d and lead to Canzone returning to the big leagues.
Canzone had a tale of two halves with the Mariners. He started on fire, silencing all of the doubters that arose from the Paul Sewald trade. Unfortunately, he flamed out in September and the doubters became even louder. Excluding the first four games of Canzone’s M’s tenure:
August 8th, 2023 — September 3rd, 2023: .278/.316/.528 (.844 OPS), 132 wRC+, .356 wOBA, 15.8 K%, 5.3 BB%, 43.3 Hard-Hit%, 10.0 Barrel%, 43.3 O-Swing%, 36.7 GB%, 40.0 FB%, 23.3 LD%, 0.92 GB/FB
September 4th, 2023 — October 1st, 2023: .146/.163/.292 (.455 OPS), 19 wRC+, .193 wOBA, 18.4 K%, 2.0 BB%, 41.0 Hard-Hit%, 15.4 Barrel%, 47.4 O-Swing%, 53.8 GB%, 38.5 FB%, 7.7 LD%, 1.40 GB/FB
It’s not unusual to see a rookie falter towards the end of their rookie season, but Canzone fell off a cliff down the stretch. For as important as he was to getting Seattle back into the race, he was a factor in what kept Seattle out in the end. To put it simply, Canzone is a dead-red hitter. His performance against breaking and offspeed pitches were abysmal, slashing .163/.183/.250 (.433 OPS) with a .188 wOBA with the Mariners. 55.2% of the pitches Canzone saw after August 7th were non-fastballs, a clear sign that MLB pitchers knew how to attack him. His bat to ball skills are evident, but he’s chasing way too much and rolling over many pitches, shown by his 53.8 GB% down the stretch. I wanted Canzone while he was still in Arizona and I believe he can be good, but it’s hard to predict success when Canzone has no track record against non-fastballs. Like with Raley, I’m hoping to be proven wrong, but an outfielder will be a drastic need at the deadline.
My Prediction: 65 Games, .210/.240/.350 (.590 OPS), 18.0 K%, 4.5 BB%, 66 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR, 4 HR
Julio Rodriguez
Is it crazy to say a 30–30 season with nearly 6 fWAR felt underwhelming? It’s harsh, but Julio’s season, like many others on here, was a tale of two halves. Julio entered the 2023 season with high expectations while the end result numbers show that he lived up to it, he struggled early on, just like Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford did.
March 30th, 2023 — July 24th, 2023: .244/.311/.398 (.709 OPS), 100 wRC+, .309 wOBA, 25.9 K%, 7.5 BB%, 51.0 Hard-Hit%, 10.1 Barrel%, 38.2 O-Swing%.
July 25th, 2023 — October 1st, 2023: .325/.370/.623 (.993 OPS), 170 wRC+, .410 wOBA, 22.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, 53.4 Hard-Hit%, 14.5 Barrel%, 45.6 O-Swing%.
Something clicked for Julio when the Mariners traveled to Minnesota, and he went ballistic. Anyone remember when I tweeted that Julio needed to start pulling inside pitches more? In 2022, Julio had 14 extra base hits on pulled inside pitches, 6 of them being on fastballs. At the time of my tweet, August 15th, 2023, Julio had only 1 XBH on an inside pitch that he pulled and it was on an elevated changeup. Following that tweet, Julio pulled 6 XBH on inside pitches, 5 of them being on fastballs. That was in less than 2 months. Just a coincidence, but a fun one nonetheless.
The only real blemish that Julio had during his scorcher was that he expanded the zone a lot. For the season, Julio finished in the 8th percentile of chase rate and finished in the 33rd percentile or worse in strikeout rate, walk rate, and whiff rate as well. This is a massive reason why Julio (and many other 2023 Mariners) struggled in high leverage. They faced relievers with elite stuff and were exposed with their tendency to expand the zone, which is why it felt like J.P. Crawford, who rarely chases or whiffs, always came through. There’s no WBC this spring for Julio and he will experience a normal non-lockout-shortened-COVID-filled spring in major league camp for the first time. I expect Julio to have a fantastic season in 2024.
My Prediction: 155 Games, .290/.340/.550 (.890 OPS), 23.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 150 wRC+, 7.0 fWAR, 38 HR, 42 SB, All-Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, MVP Finalist
Depth Options
The outfield depth isn’t super strong, but there’s a few players here. Zach DeLoach was slated to be one of the players at the front of the line, but he was traded to Chicago. A complicated depth player is Taylor Trammell, who I mentioned earlier. Trammell has no options remaining so if he doesn’t make the team out of camp, he must be designated for assignment. If it got to that, I’d imagine a bottom dwelling team takes a chance on him. I project him to make the Opening Day roster solely because he has no options. Like I said earlier, I believe he will continue to struggle and be DFA’d by mid-May.
The rest of the options are headlined by Cade Marlowe, who had a cup of coffee with the Mariners in 2023. Marlowe’s bat has issues, but he was an elite defender in left field. Marlowe had 7 DRS, 1 OAA, and 37.0 UZR/150 in just 183 innings in left. He can play center at a pretty solid level as well. Other depth pieces are mostly non-roster invitees such as Cole Tucker and Nick Solak. Both could be gone by the time Opening Day rolls around. Prospects with a chance to debut include Spencer Packard, Isiah Gilliam, and Jonatan Clase. Clase has elite speed and stole over 70 bases in 2023 between High-A and Double-A. He’s still just 21 and has already played 108 games in Double-A, albeit with some struggles. It’s a long shot for Clase to get called up in 2023, but he’s got the most upside in this group.
Starting Pitching
Luis Castillo
It was a good season for Luis Castillo, finishing 5th in AL Cy Young voting, but it came with some drawbacks. Castillo took a step back in 2023 compared to his stint with Seattle in 2022, regressing in ERA, FIP, xFIP, K%, BB%, K-BB%, Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, SIERA, HR/9, WHIP, GB%, HR/FB, and even velocity on all of his pitches. Again, it was a good season, but still concerning that a pitcher in his 30’s took a considerable stepback. He struggled in the final two months.
Through July: 2.88 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.54 SIERA, 28.3 K%, 6.3 BB%, 22.1 K-BB%
After July: 4.25 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 4.13 SIERA, 25.4 K%, 8.3 BB%, 17.0 K-BB%
Castillo struggled with the long ball in both samples, 1.30 HR/9 through July and 1.23 HR/9 after July, but the walks went up and strikeouts went down. It all came to a head when Castillo allowed 9 ER in 8.2 IP in the final week of the season, ending the Mariners season with losses to Houston and Texas. The four seam velocity dropped from 97.1 to 96.3, the sinker velocity dropped from 96.9 to 95.9, and the slider velocity dropped from 86.5 to 85.7 from 2022 to 2023. He got more chases and whiffs, but hitters were hitting him harder than they ever have. You just have to hope Castillo can get back to his 2022 Mariners form, but I’m not sure he will. Despite the rather harsh assessment, Castillo is a great pitcher and if he’s able to replicate his 2023 numbers while being consistent, we’ll obviously be very happy.
My Prediction: 32 Starts, 189.0 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 26.5 K%, 7.5 BB%, 19.0 K-BB%, 1.15 WHIP, 1.20 HR/9, 3.0 fWAR
George Kirby
George Kirby had a great first full season. Kirby finished 8th in AL Cy Young voting in 2023 and looks to build on that in 2024. Across his first 23 starts, Kirby allowed 2 or less earned runs in 15 starts, quietly becoming a dark horse for the AL Cy Young award. Unfortunately, Kirby allowed 3 or more earned runs in his next 6 straight starts, tossing 34 innings of 5.56 ERA ball before throwing 12 scoreless against the Astros and Rangers to end the season. The home run ball bit him during this stretch as he had a 1.85 HR/9 whereas he only had a 0.93 HR/9 in his first 23 starts. Outside of a couple small improvements and small regressions, along with a new pitch, it was a relatively similar season to his rookie year stretched over 190 innings.
Kirby just turned 26 and I expect another year of progression. His velocity improved throughout his arsenal and he will now have a full year of his splitter (and maybe the occasional knuckleball). It’s a basic assessment of Kirby, but he’s the pitcher I have the most confidence in in giving the Mariners a good and consistent 2024 season, even if it’s not coming with a Cy Young award at the end.
My Prediction: 32 Starts, 195.0 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 24.0 K%, 2.0 BB%, 22.0 K-BB%, 1.00 WHIP, 0.95 HR/9, 5.0 fWAR, All-Star
Logan Gilbert
Entering year 4, Logan Gilbert has really become a workhorse. Gilbert is one of only 7 pitchers to throw at least 185 innings in both 2022 and 2023, accompanied by Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Miles Mikolas, Aaron Nola, Framber Valdez, and Logan Webb. Like most of those names, Gilbert has had good production in both of those seasons as well. While his ERA regressed from 2022, Gilbert looked much better than his 2022 self. His strikeout numbers went up, the walks went down, and he started throwing a fantastic splitter, dominating both lefties and righties with it.
The only real blemish with Logan Gilbert entering 2024 is something that used to be a strength: his fastball. His fastball has gotten worse each season since being called up in 2021 with his fastball resulting in a run value of 0 in 2023 after having 19 and 12 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. He still throws it hard with good extension, but everything about it has gotten worse. Less spin, more drop, and worse results. Hitters hit .280 against his fastball with a .491 slugging in 2023 whereas hitters slugged .401 in 2021. He’s thrown it much less over the years as the rest of his arsenal gets better, but Gilbert really needs to find his fastball again. It’s the difference between him being a good pitcher and a great pitcher. Here’s to hoping he becomes great.
My Prediction: 32 Starts, 186.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 25.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 20.0 K-BB%, 1.10 WHIP, 1.10 HR/9, 3.5 fWAR
Bryce Miller
Every time Spring Training rolls around, there’s a player on the Mariners that everyone gets excited about and thinks big things are in store. 2023 was Jarred Kelenic, 2022 was Julio Rodriguez, and so on. For me, Bryce Miller takes the cake in 2024. In 2023, Miller excelled at something that is very crucial for all pitchers: limiting walks. Miller had a 8.5% walk rate in the minors in 2022 before posting a 4.8% walk rate at the major league level in 2023, so we’ll have to see if that was a fluke, but he limited the walks in his small amount of time in Spring Training and Double-A as well in 2023.
Another thing that Miller was great at was shutting down right handed hitters. The league average OPS for right handed hitters against right handed starting pitchers was .728 in 2023, Miller limited righties to a .549 OPS while having a 22.0 K-BB% with the league average being 16.3%. His main weapon was his fastball, posting a 30.3 K-BB% and .533 OPS with it to righties. The league average for right handed starting pitching four seam fastballs against right handed hitters was a 15.3 K-BB% and .804 OPS in 2023. Bryce Miller quietly had a great slider as well, shutting down righties even further with righty hitters only managing a .167 wOBA against it. He’s got this part of the gig down.
The weak side of Miller’s 2023 was his handling of left handed hitters. While Miller dominated righties better than the trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert did, lefties absolutely hammered Miller while the trio managed to be solidly above average against lefties. Left handed hitters slashed .303/.358/.558 (.916 OPS) with a .387 wOBA against Bryce Miller in 2021. His fastball got demolished, his slider got crushed, his sweeper got blasted, lefties destroyed everything that Miller had. This is where Miller’s offseason improvements come in.
Is it as simple as “I worked on this and now I will improve,” of course not. Despite that, I am a huge believer. Bryce Miller has joined George Kirby and Logan Gilbert in adding a splitter to his repertoire, but that’s not all he’s done. Throughout the 2023 season, Bryce Miller would have different arm slots for some of his pitches, mainly the changeup and sweeper. That appears to be fixed, along with the sweeper itself. It’s said that Miller is tweaking his sweeper to be the right handed version of Cole Ragans’ curveball. Ragans’ curveball (as a Royal) to righties was a dominant pitch, registering a 31.8 K% and .231 wOBA as hitters hit just .150 and slugged .300 against it. Obviously, it’s not as cut and dry as that, but it’s a good pitch to mimic for Bryce Miller as he retools his arsenal. His slider looks faster now too, appearing as more of a cutter than a slider, similar to what Bryan Woo started doing down the stretch of the 2023 season.
At the beginning of the offseason I was on board with trading Bryce Miller for a big bat. I wasn’t as high on him as I was during this time last offseason (when I wanted him traded in a package for Bryan Reynolds), but I am very high on him now after learning about the changes he’s made and even seeing some of it in action. Am I setting myself up for disappointment? Possibly, but I think Bryce Miller takes a big leap in 2024.
My Prediction: 29 Starts, 165.0 IP, 3.35 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 26.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 21.0 K-BB%, 1.10 WHIP, 1.05 HR/9, 3.2 fWAR, All-Star
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo was excellent in his rookie season. While the ERA doesn’t scream “excellent,” the rest of the numbers do. I won’t dive too much into it again, as I already did in a thread of tweets earlier in the offseason, but I’ll revisit some of the issues he had throughout the 2023 season.
Much like Bryce Miller, Woo absolutely dominated right handed hitters only to struggle against left handed hitters. Woo was actually the best member of the Mariners rotation when it came to getting righties out. On the other side of the coin, he was the worst at getting lefties out. Unlike Miller, who normally gave up a lot of loud contact, Woo couldn’t contain the walks, walking 12.4% of lefties that he faced. As mentioned in the tweet thread, that problem only worsened even with his arsenal tweaks.
For as dominant as his trio of fastballs were, Woo doesn’t have an offspeed or breaking pitch that he can use effectively. He practically cut out his slider usage down the stretch and he only used his changeup 3.6% of the time in 2023 and hitters had a wOBA of .360 against it. As far as we know, Woo is entering the spring without any additional pitches, as opposed to Miller and his splitter and revamped sweeper. Woo was fantastic at limiting hard contact and his fastballs are a huge reason for it, but without any viable offspeed or breaking pitches, I don’t envision Woo taking that big sophomore leap we were all hoping for, but he’ll still be a quality backend starter with good stuff.
My Prediction: 27 Starts, 152.0 IP, 3.90 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 25.5 K%, 8.0 BB%, 17.5 K-BB%, 1.20 WHIP, 1.20 HR/9, 2.2 fWAR
Depth Options
It’s a new era of Mariners baseball. The M’s are entering a season without Tommy Milone as a depth option. They do have other options, however, led by Austin Voth and Emerson Hancock. Voth will open the season in the Mariners bullpen and fulfill a role similar to what Chris Flexen and Luke Weaver had last season. Emerson Hancock, who started 3 games last season in the majors, will more than likely begin the season in Tacoma. Hancock looked fairly decent in the short time he was in the majors, but will probably never live up to his prospect pedigree.
Other options include Levi Stoudt, who was recently claimed off waivers from the Reds after being traded there in 2022, Jimmy Joyce, Cory Abbott, Casey Lawrence, and Jhonathan Diaz. Abbott and Lawrence have no minor league options so they may not make it to Opening Day in the organization. Diaz has dealt with injuries the past few seasons, but he has options and will eat up innings in Tacoma. Joyce is a prospect who hasn’t pitched much in Double-A, but he’s probably got more upside than Diaz, Abbott, and Lawrence. It’s not a sexy group, but if you’re digging this deep into the starting pitching depth then something went horribly wrong.
Relief Pitching
Andres Munoz
Munoz was so dominant in 2022 that many consider 2023 a down year for him. In that “down year” Munoz still ranked in the 84th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and ground ball rate. He was excellent. He wasn’t invincible though, as it felt like he was down the stretch of 2022.
The only real blemish Munoz had in 2023 was that he struggled with the walks. After walking only 6% of hitters in 2022, it rose to 10.4% in 2023. Munoz dealt with a couple of injuries in 2023, missing around two months in the first half of the season. He had a hip issue down the stretch as well, which could be why his velocity was down on his fastball a bit, but he looked much better in his last handful of games after getting some rest to take care of the hip issue.
Even with Munoz taking a step back in 2023, he still managed to strikeout nearly 32% of hitters which ranked 22nd out of 198 relievers to throw at least 40 relief innings. With Munoz using his sinker more often and getting a lot of soft contact, I doubt we’ll ever see Munoz approach a 40% strikeout rate going forward, but I think Munoz will have a dominant 2024 season.
My Prediction: 65 Games, 66.0 IP, 2.35 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 34.5 K%, 6.0 BB%, 28.5 K-BB%, 0.80 WHIP, 0.40 HR/9, 2.4 fWAR, All-Star
Matt Brash
Remember that brutal start Matt Brash endured in 2023? Through May 5th, Brash was sitting on a 5.28 ERA and .516 BABIP despite having a 2.07 SIERA and 42.9 K%. Baseball is a tough luck sport, but Brash was the unluckiest reliever in the game through May 5th. People wanted him traded, sent down, or even DFA’d to some of the crazier ones. As a shocker to absolutely nobody, Brash dominated the rest of the way. The strikeouts dropped and the walks went up, but his ERA after May 5th was 2.44 with a 32.4 K%.
Despite averaging around 98 miles an hour on his fastball, hitters were all over it in 2023, slugging .481 on the pitch with a wOBA of .423 and 53.4 hard-hit rate. Brash’s slider got even better, though, improving in average against, slugging against, wOBA, whiff rate, strikeout rate, hard-hit rate, and the expected versions of batting average against, slugging against, and wOBA. Brash did expand his arsenal a bit, adding a cutter and sinker to the mix, but he only combined to throw them 7.1% of the time. His curveball usage dropped nearly 20% from 2022 to 2023 as hitters fared much better against the pitch, leaving Brash to basically be a two pitch pitcher.
Even with the limited arsenal and the rough beginning to the season, Brash still placed in the 87th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and barrel rate. Since moving to the bullpen in 2022, Brash carries a 2.88 ERA over 97 innings with a 2.84 SIERA and 34.8% strikeout rate. His 2.8 fWAR since July 19th, 2022 is the 4th most for a qualified reliever, trailing Felix Bautista, Emmanuel Clase, and Tanner Scott. I expect another great season from the soon-to-be 26 year old Canadian.
My Prediction: 64 Games, 63.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 33.0 K%, 9.5 BB%, 23.5 K-BB%, 1.15 WHIP, 0.50 HR/9, 1.7 fWAR
Gregory Santos
The newest addition to the late inning group of the Mariners: Gregory Santos. Santos had one of the quieter great reliever seasons in 2023 with the White Sox and apparently that’s all the White Sox needed to see before flipping him for a couple of prospects and a draft pick. With Justin Topa being shipped to Minnesota, Santos should fill the role of ground ball specialist that Topa had last season.
The Mariners love their sliders and Santos comes to the Mariners with one of the best in the game. His 17 run value on the slider in 2023 was the highest among all relievers. Hitters hit just .196 with a .202 wOBA and 30.8% strikeout rate against it. His slider had a 1% barrel rate, allowing only one barrel (to the Mariners, coincidentally) all season. The sinker was far from being dominant as hitters hit .339 against the pitch in 2023. Santos is practically a two pitch pitcher as he throws the sinker and slider a combined 96.4% of the time. With the Mariners pitching development, it’s not crazy to think that Santos can get even better in 2024.
A concern with Santos at the moment are his nagging injuries, mainly the lat and shoulder. Santos ended the 2023 season on the injured list after a career-high workload, tossing 66.1 innings after never tossing more than 50 innings in a season prior. His previous career-high was 49.2 innings back in 2018 when he was an 18 year old starting pitcher in the minor leagues. The Mariners may try to slow him into the season out of caution like they did with Andres Munoz back in 2022. If Santos can stay healthy then the Mariners may have the best backend trio in all of baseball.
My Prediction: 55 Games, 58.0 IP, 2.75 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 25.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 17.5 K-BB%, 1.10 WHIP, 0.20 HR/9, 1.4 fWAR
The Rest of the Bullpen / The Steckenrider Bucket
Watching the Mariners bullpen is (mostly) a fun time. The M’s have taken guys like Casey Sadler, Drew Steckenrider, Kendall Graveman, Paul Sewald, Penn Murfee, Erik Swanson, Justin Topa, and Gabe Speier and made them great high-leverage arms over the years. Who will join that this year?
Starting off with the lone player from that group that remains in the organization: Gabe Speier. With the Mariners not having any left handed relievers in 2022, the M’s picked up Speier off waivers from the Royals and turned him into the left-on-left weapon they needed. Lefties hit just .218 off Speier with a 32.4 K% and microscopic 1.9 BB% in 2023. While he still managed to punch out 27% of the right handed hitters he faced, righties managed a .780 OPS off Speier and slugged .465 against him. After May 14th, Speier had a 4.91 ERA over 40.1 innings. Despite this, he generated a 41.4 O-Swing%, 31.3 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 2.66 SIERA. Speier got barreled more than you’d like during this stretch, but his ability to miss bats while having an unsustainably high 25.9 HR/FB% gives me confidence that Speier could be even better in 2024.
Another lefty the Mariners brought in for 2023 was Tayler Saucedo. Saucedo, much like Speier, dominated lefties as they only managed to put up a .516 OPS against him. While righties didn’t slug nearly as high as they did against Speier, they still had a .384 OBP as Sauce struggled with a 13.7 BB% against right handed hitters. Sauce’s sinker and changeup combo were great against righties while his sinker and slider duo were great against lefties. While Sauce did struggle with the walks to righties with his sinker, right handers crushed his slider, posting a .476 wOBA against it. Saucedo is probably best used as a lefty specialist, which is a bit trickier to do with the 3 batter minimum, but we’ve seen Saucedo come through in clutch moments before.
The three returning right handed pitchers are Ty Adcock, Trent Thornton, and Eduard Bazardo. Adcock was banished back to the minor leagues after a brief stint in the majors and will probably be towards the back of the line in terms of reinforcements. Bazardo had a 2.63 ERA with the Mariners in 13.2 innings after being traded at the deadline and will probably start in the minor leagues as well, but towards the front of the line for reinforcements.
That leaves Trent Thornton, who will need to make the Opening Day roster due to having no minor league options. Odds are good that will happen as the organization seems to like his stuff. It was an odd two months with Seattle for Thornton, posting a 2.08 ERA despite having a 4.01 SIERA and 14.7 HR/FB%. On the other hand, Thornton had a very solid 29.9% hard-hit rate, 5.2% barrel rate, and 4.9% walk rate. While Thornton’s four seamer and curveball both weren’t good by expected numbers, he had a very good slider, sinker, and sweeper. The sweeper got incredibly unlucky by expected numbers with hitters posting a .374 wOBA on it despite a .243 xwOBA, 19.2% hard-hit rate, and 3.8% barrel rate. His slider had a .193 wOBA and .111 xwOBA while his sinker had a .176 wOBA and .200 xwOBA. It’s easy to see why the Mariners have faith in Thornton as a backend guy but with no minor league options left, Thornton will need to take his role and run with it.
Next up: The Steckenrider Bucket. There are a lot of options here this season. Jackson Kowar and Carlos Vargas were brought in from trades that sent out Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White, and Eugenio Suarez so those two are probably expected to do more amongst the fanbase, especially Vargas. The non-roster invite and waivers group is pretty deep compared to past years. Mauricio Llovera (no options), Cody Bolton, Collin Snider, Joey Krehbiel, Kirby Snead (no options), Trevor Kelley (no options), Tyson Miller (no options), Heath Hembree (no options), Ty Buttrey, Travis Kuhn, Sean Poppen (no options), and Holden Laws are in camp this year fighting to prove they belong in the Mariners bullpen. The problem with that is that there’s only one spot available in the bullpen currently, two if they decide to send down Saucedo for whatever reason. Obviously injuries and bad performances are bound to happen so if I had to pick two players from this group that I believe can be contributors this season, I’d pick Joey Krehbiel and Carlos Vargas. Krehbiel had a great changeup in 2022 with the Orioles and pitched sparingly in the majors in 2023, but I believe the Mariners can further unlock whatever’s there. Vargas is simple, he has electric stuff. He really struggles with the walks, though, but like with Krehbiel, I believe the Mariners can harness his stuff just enough to make him a good arm to have.
The Mariners entered 2021 with Rafael Montero, Kendall Graveman, Keynan Middleton, Anthony Misiewicz, Casey Sadler, Will Vest, Drew Steckenrider, and Nick Margevicius. Only Steckenrider, Sadler, and Misiewicz were there to watch Kyle Seager walk off the T-Mobile Park infield for the final time. The Mariners entered 2022 with Paul Sewald, Steckenrider, Diego Castillo, Erik Swanson, Andres Munoz, Misiewicz, Justus Sheffield, Sergio Romo, Yohan Ramirez, and Matt Festa in their bullpen. Only Sewald, Castillo, Swanson, Munoz, and Festa made it to the playoffs. The Mariners entered 2023 with Sewald, Munoz, Castillo, Matt Brash, Chris Flexen, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa, and Trevor Gott. Only Munoz and Brash were left standing in Game 162. Players regressed and some broke out. Who will that be in 2024? It’s always fun to see it play out because the Mariners have figured it out over the past few seasons.
The Trade Deadline
I believe that the 2024 Seattle Mariners will enter the trade deadline season in position to add. Whether that’s as a division leader, Wild Card holder, or contender on the outside looking in is yet to be seen, but I think we’ll add nonetheless. With the rumor that Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander are in the final season of their contracts, it sets up a potentially aggressive deadline for the Mariners. I predict that the Mariners will be shopping for a few things such as corner outfielders, an infielder, a bullpen arm, and a backup catcher. I have a few trades that I believe we’ll make.
The Seattle Mariners will acquire Gary Sanchez from the Brewers
Starting off with the lighter of the three trades I am predicting, the M’s will swing a deal for Gary Sanchez. With Zavala gone and Hunt not producing, the M’s will need a catcher to backup Cal Raleigh without asking Mitch Garver to do it. With the Brewers all but out of the playoff race and with Sanchez being a rental, a deal makes sense. Sanchez crushes lefties and has been a better defender lately, filling in perfectly behind Raleigh. The cost wouldn’t be expensive either. The Mariners could probably get a deal done for a prospect that isn’t even on their Top 30 list, such as Milkar Perez.
The Seattle Mariners will acquire Mark Canha from the Tigers
Mark Canha has felt like a Mariner for a few years now. Canha has put up a 110 wRC+ or better in every season since 2018. He’s a free agent at the end of the season and while I do think the Tigers will take another step forward in their rebuild, I don’t think it’ll be enough to contend in the American League in 2024. Canha is mostly a left fielder, which the Mariners will need in this scenario with Raley and Canzone not panning out, but can also play first base and center field if you really need someone out there. He gives you the versatility you’re hoping for in Luke Raley but with a better bat despite being in his mid-30's.
The cost, like Gary Sanchez, would be relatively cheap. The Brewers acquired Canha from the Mets in exchange for a lottery prospect and now that Canha is a year older with less team control, the cost should be just as cheap. It wouldn’t surprise me if a guy like Shaddon Peavyhouse or Michael Limoncelli were sent to Detroit in this deal.
The Seattle Mariners will complete a blockbuster trade with the Marlins, acquiring Luis Arraez and Tanner Scott in exchange for Harry Ford +
Is Luis Arraez not the perfect definition of what type of hitters this Mariners regime looks for? While batting average isn’t thought of as it once was, it’s still important. Using the numbers I’m predicting this Mariners team for, only two players (France and Julio) will hit above .260 in 2024. Again, batting average isn’t what it once was in terms of importance, but the Mariners pride themselves on bat to ball skills. Arraez is the king of contact right now. The Mariners will trade for Arraez to play second base while moving Jorge Polanco to third base. Is this a good defensive team? Other than Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, no, it’s definitely a weak spot. Arraez will probably be the best hitter available at the deadline, assuming Juan Soto and Pete Alonso aren’t available, and the M’s need to pounce. He’s not a rental either, he’s a free agent after 2025. He’s the perfect Mariner bat.
Tanner Scott was one of the best relievers in all of baseball in 2023. Relievers are unpredictable most of the time, but I have no reason to believe 2023 was a fluke for Scott. I don’t know if he’ll be able to replicate his 2.31 ERA and 33.9 K%, but he should still be good nonetheless. Scott, unlike Arraez, is a free agent after 2024 and is probably getting dealt. The Mariners creating a superpen with Munoz, Brash, Speier, Santos, and Scott would be lethal heading into the later part of the season.
This deal hinges on Miami not being able to replicate their success in 2023, which I don’t think they will. The cost is going to be extremely expensive. I won’t try and predict an entire package, but it’s probably going to be just as big, if not bigger, than the Luis Castillo trade. It starts with Harry Ford and Jonatan Clase at the very least and it wouldn’t be surprising if it included Cole Young as well. It would be a package that stings to see, but it’ll be worth it, just like the Luis Castillo deal was.
Postseason?
This team is relying on some bounce back and injury luck to go their way in 2024. I like the risk, the team needed a shakeup around its core. If my predictions come true, then I fully believe this team makes the playoffs and probably even wins the American League West for the first time since 2001. What happens in the playoffs is a crapshoot, but the Mariners have the formula of great pitching and a solid enough lineup to make a run.
Will my predictions come true? Probably not, they rarely do when it comes to the Mariners. Injuries could decimate this team, which can be said about any team, but the Mariners are taking a risk by investing in guys like Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, Luis Urias, and Jorge Polanco with their injury history. They could also all stay healthy and perform to their career norms. Maybe I’m being too confident, maybe I think our deadline is too aggressive, maybe I’m underestimating some players while overestimating some others. Predictions are fun, but they can easily make you look bad. The important thing is that I believe this team is good enough and that they can be great, they just need a piece or two more. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see.
If you made it this far, thank you for reading, this took a long time. What do you agree with? What do you disagree with? Let me know in the comments.
