IRI’s Steve Nix to the Helsinki Commission:

It’s in America’s strategic interest to support the citizens of Belarus as they fight for a democratic future.

Written testimony by Stephen Nix, Eurasia Director

Due to its economic dependence and military cooperation with Russia and its proximity to three EU and NATO countries, Belarus is of great strategic and security interest to the United States — especially now as the U.S. has increased its military presence in Central Europe and the Baltics. It is the last dictatorship in Europe and cannot continue in its current form. Because of that, this Commission’s continued focus on Belarus is more important than ever.

I am the Eurasia Director for the International Republican Institute (IRI), a nonprofit, nonpartisan democracy assistance organization that is active in more than 80 countries around the world. We trace our roots back to President Reagan and his unshakable belief that,

Liberty is not the sole prerogative of a lucky few, but the inalienable right of all mankind.

There are not many places around the world that this message applies more than Belarus.

While we applaud Belarus’ expressed interest in engagement, we have seen little concrete action taken on the issues the United States has offered in terms of engagement. These issues include amending the election code, registering political parties and halting the practice of arresting citizens for political activities. In reality, democratic reforms in Belarus — including economic freedoms — remain stagnant and rarely move beyond the level of roundtables or diplomatic conversations. As evidenced most recently, raids of human rights defenders’ offices and mass detention of opposition activists like we saw in March and February of this year, still occur.

The democratic record in Belarus is dark and closed. If we look at the level of freedoms enjoyed by the citizens of Belarus, very little has changed in the last few years.

The OSCE has consistently noted elections are undemocratic and neither free nor fair. Both parliamentarians and local officials are controlled by Lukashenka’s government. The judiciary is not independent and heavily relies on government dictates for decisions. The most recent Freedom House Freedom in the World Report classifies Belarus as “Not Free”, largely due to human rights violations and incursions upon media freedoms.

The government owns Belarus’ single internet service provider and often blocks independent media sites, as it did during tax protests on March 25 of this year.

Seventy percent of the economy is state-owned and centrally planned. Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index of 2016 puts Belarus at a distant rating of 79.

However, citizens finding themselves left behind by Lukashenka’s rule have begun to organize and act. This citizen participation, which has included high profile protests as well as more locally-focused activism, gives hope for progress as citizens find small successes by working together.

Current Context

At the beginning of this year, those Belarusian citizens unable to secure jobs began receiving notices that they owed the equivalent of $250 in taxes for being unemployed. This “unemployment tax,” also referred to as the “Tax on Social Parasites,” was designed to penalize those who consume social services but do not contribute to government coffers through taxes. Onerous taxation on those worst off in society spread discontent throughout the nation and small pockets of protesting communities began to form. They eventually developed into large citizen-led protests in five major cities throughout February and March.

Actions were taken to deter these demonstrations. In advance of the largest protest — organized on March 25 — authorities preemptively detained many leaders of the pro-democracy opposition. Also, in an effort to further deter participation on March 25, schools and universities held classes and state employees were required to report to work despite it being a Saturday.

Police and security forces also aggressively attacked these protests, causing injuries to hundreds. More than 1,000 opposition demonstrators, political and civil society activists and community leaders were arrested.

Following the protests and the subsequent security crackdown, the official rhetoric of Lukashenka shifted. In previous years, he had ridiculed the opposition, claiming they were bankrupt of ideas — framing their work not as dangerous, but as laughable. However, with the recent crackdown and arrests, he has returned to portraying them as a “fifth column,” manipulated by Western funding with the aim of destabilizing Belarus. He further claimed that funding and even weapons were being provided by Lithuania and Poland to the enemies of stability inside Belarus. Over a dozen political opposition and civil society activists were arrested and held for belonging to the “White Legion” — an organization police alleged to exist to overthrow the state. No evidence of this existed, and those detained were held until just before the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly held in Minsk this July, then released due to lack of evidence.

The nationwide protests showed a fracturing in society. Average citizens, not associated with the opposition or politics, marched against what they saw as a step too far by the state in shifting responsibility for bad decisions onto the public. Many of the protesters — middle-aged working class residents of regional cities — are the very people that independent polling shows have in the past supported Lukashenka.

Their participation in these protests is indicative of a growing feeling of betrayal and economic desperation

Members of pro-democracy parties had been warning of the unemployment tax for over a year. In addition, they have been advocating local authorities to be more transparent in decision-making and budget allocation, and mobilizing communities over better services. By the time community residents were faced with an unemployment tax early this year, the opposition activists were proven correct and gained credibility as activists loyal to the community — not a “fifth column”, or Western puppets or any other moniker thrown by Lukashenka. Since the protests, community activists have built on the level of citizen engagement and have driven successful initiatives on everything from road repair to rights awareness for small business owners to municipal budget transparency.

Successes and Opportunities within the Pro-Democracy Opposition

Regarding the pro-democratic opposition, recent strides have been made. I want to discuss two groups as examples. The first is the United Civic Party, which succeeded in having one of its members, Anna Konopatskaya, be elected to parliament in 2016. The 2016 elections were neither free nor fair, and the Parliament of Belarus is under heavy executive control. While being the lone opposition voice in a largely symbolic parliament does not carry political influence, Konopatskaya has provided insight into how the state monolith operates. She has also used her position to travel to the regions in an effort to connect citizens to the processes that govern them. A successful businesswoman herself, she has been a critical voice not only on economic development issues, but also electoral reform.

The other example is Govori Pravdu, a citizen action group which translate to Tell the Truth. In 2015, the organization’s leader Tatsiana Karatkevich challenged Lukashenka as the only opposition candidate in the presidential election. While the official election result listed Mrs. Karatkevich as receiving only 4.44 percent, independent polling shows nearly 20 percent of voters supported her candidacy. The same polling shows Lukashenka’s result as only 51 percent — still a mandate, but significantly lower than the Belarus Election Commission asserted. Since the campaign, Karatkevich has utilized her strong name recognition by traveling and advocating for regional small business owners, urging municipal officials and local Ministry officials to meet with citizen groups, and raising awareness of social service problems.

These two women represent change in the opaque, authoritarian Belarus.

Through years of activism they have won small community-level victories, and expanded their influence to nationwide recognition. They continue to utilize opportunities to civically activate citizens and push government authorities to meet citizens and hear their demands. But there are dozens more like them throughout the regions of Belarus. Belarusians have discovered the power of standing together, the power of uniting to drive change. More and more people are finding the courage to stand up for a better life and opposition activists have successfully brought citizens together. Further fostering this growing civic activity in Belarus requires a localized approach — and next year’s municipal elections, preliminarily planned for February 2018, provide an important opportunity for change in Belarus.

Economic Situation

Polls conducted in Belarus show the top five concerns and priorities of the public to be economic in nature: rising prices, decreasing salaries, low standard of living, lack of local economic development and unemployment. This trend has held over the last decade. Despite some changes or positive improvement in indicators like GDP, citizens feel negative, rather than positive trends.

Independent polling shows that over 60 percent of Belarusians have little or no savings, and are living paycheck to paycheck.

Belarus still relies on central planning with heavy state interference in at least 70 percent of the economy. Price controls, minimum production quotas for state-owned industry and collectivized agriculture, and coercive labor regulations which have been classified as forced labor by the U.S. State Department have placed burdens on average citizens and resulted in distorted markets designed to please the head of state rather than customers or workers.

Due to a reform-minded Economy Ministry, Belarus continues to rise in the World Bank’s Doing Business report — ranking 37th in 2017. However, as the majority of decisions, reforms and legislative actions depend on the whims of Lukashenka as head of state, the pace of reforms is likely to be glacial. Average citizens will not feel the benefits of these reforms, but do feel the cut in social services, the burden of additional fees and taxes and the decline in state owned enterprises. A telling example is the factory in Mozyr which can only afford to run its machinery and pay its staff from 8:00 am to 8:45 am every weekday.

IT has become the fastest growing sector of the economy with 20 percent growth annually and recently Lukashenka has announced radical measures for further development of the IT sector. However, recent arrests of IT CEOs and managers, as well as high taxes and regulations, deter investment in this sphere. Conducting business in Belarus almost always involves arrangements with the regime. Many IT entrepreneurs prefer to leave Belarus and register their companies abroad to minimize risk of arrest and intimidation.

Lukashenka has often used economic populism to curry public favor during election periods. As Lukashenka’s government becomes cash-poor, such spikes in social welfare spending will no longer be possible. Thus, he will rely on further disempowering citizens and falsifying elections to maintain power, or using force to keep citizens away from civic or political participation.

The country stands in need of a bailout worth billions of dollars. Belarus must make fundamental, systemic economic reforms if it is to recover from its current situation. The regime now faces a dilemma: to recover economically, the government has to dramatically change its current economic model, which is the foundation of its political control over the country. Economic reform would mean giving up political control.

Dependence on Russia

Because of failures intrinsic in Lukashenka’s central planning and authoritarian control over Belarus’ economy, he has always been dependent on Russian subsidies in order to maintain stability. Russia aids Belarus through low-interest loans and preferential pricing of raw materials and energy.

Due to Russian subsidies, Belarus has the cheapest energy prices in the region besides Russia itself. But this has come at the cost of control over infrastructure. In 2011, Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom assumed full ownership of Beltransgaz, the Belarusian energy provider.

Russia also controls Belarus’s many oil refineries as well as exercises major influence in Belarus’ electricity sector.

Russia further has influence over Belarus through the Eurasian Economic Union and the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). A new and disturbing area of influence is the construction of the Astravets nuclear power facility — with no allowance for international safety observers despite two accidents already during construction.

This September, Belarus will host the joint Russian-Belarusian ZAPAD military exercises. Thousands of troops — as well as twenty-five Russian aircraft — will work to, “maintain security of the Union State, its preparedness for repulsing acts of aggression and to advance command and control organizations’ actions compatibility and units’ training standards.” These troops will be just miles from the borders of the EU and NATO. Belarus already hosts Russian communications and radar stations.

There are signs that Belarus wishes to maintain its sovereignty in the face of Russian influence.

Lukashenka has repeatedly dismissed Russia’s proposal for a base on Belarusian soil. When Russia began to increase pressure for military exercises during the Ukraine crisis, Belarus engaged in military exercises with China instead. When Russia began using energy prices to pressure Lukashenka, Belarus struck energy deals with Venezuela and Azerbaijan.

One view is that Russia is taking advantage of Belarus’ poor economic model, and swallowing Belarus’ strategic assets while encouraging more dependency. For Belarus, this results in a creeping loss of sovereignty. Another view is that Belarus is simply maneuvering between two great powers (Russia and the West) and trying to find the best deal. However, the level of economic dependence, the current level of military cooperation and integration and the high level of social sympathy with the Kremlin position due to years of propaganda and pro-Russian media make change unlikely. Russia will continue to curtail Belarusian sovereignty as the price for economic bailouts. Only swift economic and democratic reforms will spur growth, attract investment and decentralize power to the point where Russia’s influence is curbed.

Next Steps

The parliamentary and reform work of Anna Konopatskaya, the national and regional outreach by Tatsiana Karatkevich and the community-level work of hundreds of activists shows that the citizens of Belarus, whether previously active or not, are looking for ways to improve their lives and neighborhoods. Segments of the entire population have become active and have protested, not merely the political opposition.

In a 2016 poll, 90 percent of respondents stated they had not participated in any social activity aimed at solving local problems. Their reasons? They don’t believe it would make a difference, they had never been invited to do so and they did not know how. Future change depends on addressing these concerns.

The recent protest wave, which was widely covered in the media and discussed among the population, drew different sectors of society to the street, and which led to Lukashenka’s suspending the unpopular unemployment tax, demonstrates that citizens have begun to change their minds and have discovered the power of standing together, the power in uniting to drive change. Belarusians’ participation in change-oriented social activity is currently trending up as more and more people are finding the courage to stand up for a better life.

The upcoming municipal elections in early 2018 provide an important opportunity for further change in Belarus.

Local governments deal with everyday issues which directly impact citizens and are charged with delivering basic services citizens rely on. A free and fair local election would result in local concerns receiving attention from citizens demanding solutions. However, the current patronage-driven system rewards candidates for political loyalty, not innovation. Elected leaders become defenders of the system, rather than demanding results and serving their constituents.

Should the government in Belarus allow free and fair elections in 2018, we would see a number of victories by the political opposition.

We would also see a number of concerned citizens able to access resources to improve their communities. Perhaps most importantly, residents would see the reality of the system and what reforms need to be made to allow them liberty and prosperity.

The question remains: What is the United States’ position with regard to the Lukashenka regime and toward the Belarusian pro-democracy opposition?

The answer lies with the people of Belarus — who deserve to be the true decision-makers and power holders. U.S. assistance should be directed toward increasing the effectiveness and capacity of democratic political parties and activists inside the country first and foremost. Particularly, at community-level initiatives and developments. These grassroots activists are the ones who provide a decentralized and democratic alternative to Lukashenka and his authoritarian rule. Freedom and democracy should be the common cause uniting the European Union and U.S. with those inside Belarus who are fighting for a more prosperous future and a more democratic country.

IRI in Belarus

IRI has assisted pro-democratic forces in Belarus in their struggle for democratic change since 1997 through political party strengthening, coalition building and youth leadership development programming. These programs are the foundation of IRI’s mission to support democratic organizations and help their leaders and activists prepare for public policy roles in a future democratic Belarus.

Responding to developing trends in the country and nationwide discontent over the dismal economy, IRI shifted its programmatic focus in the last few years to fostering community-level activism. IRI firmly believes that the future development of Belarus depends on unleashing the potential of its citizens — allowing people to speak, assemble and earn a living in the way they see fit.

For this reason, IRI continues to provide communication training, campaign training, project management consultation and community mobilization training in order to assist grassroots activists in their work with colleagues and neighbors to improve their lives at every level.

IRI also works to support increased political participation of youth in Belarus, which represent the future of the country. Many in this generation, born after the fall of the Soviet Union and during Lukashenka’s over two-decade long hold on power, see their country falling behind regional neighbors who have made great strides in development. Exposure to ideas and practices in democracy is a key step in providing context for these future leaders.

IRI will continue to monitor the limited democratic space in Belarus and work with the opposition to find ways to continue their struggle for democratic change in Belarus.

International Republican Institute

Written by

The International Republican Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization committed to advancing freedom and democracy worldwide.

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