Again, none of these points matter.
Patrick T. Maloney
1

You’re looking at politics in a deterministic way. You’re suggesting that demographic voting blocs can be assumed prior to a vote taking place. Why not just decide the election now, why have a vote at all? You’re taking victory for granted, and you’re assuming that minds can’t possibly change.

Here’s why you’re wrong.

There are a number of states in which a severe Clinton lead has diminished and given a lead to Sanders. In Wisconsin, there was a 20% swing in about three weeks.

The differential factor was time on the ground in a state spent by the Sanders campaign. If Sanders can effect a 20% swing, he can win any state that’s left on the board, and by the wide margin required by the delegate tally. Polls indicate that Clinton’s lead with Hispanic voters has been eliminated entirely, which is important in California. Unthinkable a month ago, which is why I use it as an example to illustrate how wrong you are about determinism.

I look at numbers too you know, except, unlike you, I understand the concept of dynamism. You look at static snapshots instead of looking at the way numbers movd over time.

I’ll say it again. Sanders takes 57% of the remaining pledged delegates, THAT’S the ball game. He’s won by margins at least as high as that in all the states in the last month except for AZ (where there were 100s of k of disenfranchised voters whose registration as Dems wasn’t properly processed and who likely would have swung the state to Sanders).

All this is to show that numbers move. The Sanders campaign has done it time and time again. He’s still not the favourite, but his odds have shortened significantly over the past month, to the point where the Clinton campaign is willing to risk going negative at this point. They wouldn’t do that if the contest was as foregone a conclusion as you say.

I’ll give you an example to prove my point. The 1992 UK election was considered such a lock for the Labour Party that the leader, Neil Kinnock, held a victory rally a few days in advance. Guess what happened? The Tories not only beat Labour, they took a Parliamentary majority.

The polling done in advance is not what matters. It’s the votes in the ballot box. Hillary ain’t got what she needs yet. She’s going to need to fight like a tiger to maintain her lead, and it’s not certain she’ll succeed by any stretch of the imagination.

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