Something Has to Give
I have trouble imagining “business as usual” continuing in American politics. The most conservative assumption seems to be either the current duopoly in Washington breaks, or there is mass unrest.
Consider the banal outcomes for the 2024 election. Trump and Biden both have paltry competition in their primaries. Ergo it seems likely one will triumph in November. If Biden wins, do you imagine Trump voters taking the news calmly? If Trump wins, do you imagine Biden voters taking the news calmly?
This is not centrist handwringing about the faults of “both sides.” The right has a documented history of intimidating poll-workers, attempting to steal voting machines, threatening election officials, and, you know, storming the capital with the intent to overthrow the government. The left called Trump illegitimate because he received less votes and had greasy relations with the foreign power trying to throw the election. These are not equivalent.
Regardless, I would expect immense civil unrest if Trump won in 2024. This is the man campaigning on the promise to invade Mexico and publicly wishing death upon his former generals. Were he to win in 2024, it is almost certainly not because he garnered a victory in the popular vote, and this is an intolerable proposition. The likes of Gavin Newsom will certainly try to throw sand in the gears. There will be lawsuits from every blue state attorney general. Perhaps more important would be the role of those on the streets. I’d say I anticipate protests similar to those seen recently in France and Israel, but I believe the antipathy for Trump on the American left dwarfs that for Macron and Netanyahu.
In the case of a Biden victory, we already have a precedent for right-wing violence. Much of the conservative presence in state governments and congress that resisted Trump the last time has been swept away. Extremists have been organizing and acting, as evidenced by the continuing attacks on power infrastructure.
When this violence inevitably fails to enact political change, it is likely the likes of Matt Gaetz will introduce articles of secession. Hell, Marjorie Taylor Greene has already called for this. In 2020, Barton Gellman publicly predicted in The Atlantic1 that Trump would try to overturn the election on the basis that Trump had been saying he would do as much. We know how that prediction aged.
There are 18 Republicans in the House who come from districts that Biden won. Currently, they’re falling in line with the impeachment inquiry into Biden. Are we to expect them to grow a spine? They saw 2020 just as we did; they will not pivot. The Wall Street Journal editorial board will decry Trump… but will ultimately decide they prefer authoritarianism over higher taxes. Mitch McConnell will avoid reporters’ questions while the Rick Scotts and Tommy Tubervilles will support secession loudly. It takes one West Virginia or Mississippi state house speaker or governor to get the ball rolling.
I am not naïve enough to endorse inevitability. My imagination is not sufficient to picture every future scenario, and I think it is highly likely that my predictions don’t play out. You do not need access to an actuarial table to notice the health of either candidate could rapidly decline. Trump could be in prison soon. The current dysfunction in the house could result in a consensus speaker, and the No Labels party could find themselves an electorate. And we can never dismiss the possibility of a black-swan catastrophe.
Regardless, Occam’s razor does not support the maintenance of the status quo. For us to assume the system breaks we simply extrapolate current trends. To assume we return to the halcyon days where the sanctity of elections are respected we have to conjure a scenario in which Republicans turn on Trump. It will take an individual more creative than myself to sketch out how that would happen. Equally laughable is the assumption that Democrats will accept Trump if he loses the popular vote again. There is some long-horizon precedence for parties/coalitions shattering, but that has not happened since the Civil War. I deeply hope history does not rhyme.