Human beings often extrapolate the future from the present, or even the past. The assumption is that whatever worked well for us up to now should in some slightly improved shape or form also serve us nicely in the future. Yet the new reality is that because of the increased impact of exponential and combinatorial technological changes (as I will explain throughout this book) the future is actually very unlikely to be an extension of the present. Rather, it is certain to be utterly different — because the framework and the underlying logic has changed.
An excerpt from my new book ‘Technology vs Humanity’
Futurist Gerd Leonhard
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Funny thing about “learning” from history is that it is created in one instance and revised the next. We want to believe things happen for a reason, when just as likely things happen for unintended reasons. Once we understand that the past is but one of numerous potential outcomes, then we are better able to learn from it.

That said, we can often trace events back to a couple of critical factors that had the greatest influence on the outcome. Even then luck and accident could well have been the deciding factor. But we don’t want to believe this is the case, as we want some assurance or certainty about our own futures.

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