Funny thing about “learning” from history is that it is created in one instance and revised the next. We want to believe things happen for a reason, when just as likely things happen for unintended reasons. Once we understand that the past is but one of numerous potential outcomes, then we are better able to learn from it.
That said, we can often trace events back to a couple of critical factors that had the greatest influence on the outcome. Even then luck and accident could well have been the deciding factor. But we don’t want to believe this is the case, as we want some assurance or certainty about our own futures.