Nevada GOP Primary Analysis

It’s beginning to get desperate for the Republicans. With tonight’s win, Donald Trump is further solidified as frontrunner. If you are a Democrat, you have to be salivating at the idea of facing Trump. The man has almost 40% of the Republican vote, mostly from desperate, gullible people who don’t seem to grasp what the possible consequences are.

However, it looks like ~60% of GOP voters still have at least some of their faculties. The problem is there are three viable candidates left fighting over them. The establishment desperately needs one to emerge and start winning.

At this point, the focus is going to be keeping Trump from getting the delegates needed to be the unquestioned nominee. For now, delegates are still being awarded proportionally, but there are some winner-take-all states coming up that will make wins mean way more.

The favorite to avert the apocalypse is one Marco Rubio, a fresh-faced freshman senator from Florida with a young-sounding voice and conservative credentials with a history of at least pretending to work with Democrats.

Standing in his way is one Ted Cruz, a potato-faced freshman senator from Canada with a wife who works at Goldman Sachs and a history of alienating everyone with whom he’s ever worked.

Also John Kasich in case Rubio goes down with a torn ACL or something.

Let’s break it down by candidate:

Trump

Much like his fellow reality TV stars, the Kardashians, Trump started off as a vague joke that got way bigger than it should have and now we kind of want to see how it plays out. For some poor, misguided souls, he is the lone savior of America and regardless of any of his policies, the strength of his character will overcome.

In their media-addled minds, he will right the ship and restore us to a simpler time, when America was the world’s “good guys” and no one questioned it. “He can get things done!” is something you hear at his rallies over and over again… just don’t you dare ask “how?”… that’s commie talk.

Let’s take a step back and stop listening to anxious baby boomers who have seen one too many Bill O’Riley specials on the evils of hip-hop in the suburbs. This is a man who has insulted just about every major voting bloc you need to win. Women, Hispanics, Muslims, the list goes on. He may have 40% of Republicans, but that’s hardly 40% of Americans.

I too have been concerned about the nastiness his candidacy has brought out. The mix of ignorance and confidence is proving to be contagious, but much like George Wallace before him who ran on a similar platform of segregation, I think we will look back on Trump as a national ankle tattoo of a band logo: something that seemed like a good idea at the time, but we’ll start to want to cover up as our kids begin asking about it.

Nevertheless, he’s looking closer and closer to ‘inevitable’. The pack behind him needs to birth a challenger and coalesce before it’s too late.

Cruz

Tonight’s third place finish (at least if current reporting holds) puts Cruz in a tough spot. He’s losing support to Rubio as people increasingly see Marco as the better candidate everyone can agree on. It’s chickens coming home to roost in many ways as Ted’s senate colleagues are endorsing Rubio left and right, leaving poor potato-face out in the cold to fend for himself.

This goes double now that Jeb Bush finally mercy-killed his campaign. That money, support, and infrastructure is stampeding to Rubio. But ol’ Ted’s not done yet. If there’s one thing this smarmy Harvard-educated political science student is good at, it’s tricking Southern evangelicals into voting for him. And one week from tonight, a whole lot of states in the South get their say.

Cruz was always looking to Super Tuesday as his ace-in-the-hole. If he finishes the night with fewer delegates than Marco though, that’ll be crippling. But he’s looking good in many of those states. A Southern sweep for him over Marco may tilt the race to Cruz as the anti-Trump. But if Marco wins the night, it’s hard to imagine Ted sticking around for much longer afterwards.

Rubio

A solid second is good news for Marco. Now he needs to capitalize and win on Super Tuesday. Ending the night with more delegates than Ted could be the knockout blow that kills off Cruz and turns it into a two man race between him and that sun-damaged duck face with a wig made from the corpse of a red-haired civil war re-enactor.

But seriously, Rubio represents the last stand for the GOP establishment who have seen just about every one of their candidates try and fail miserably. The pressure on him could not be higher. There has to be legitimate concern as to whether he can stand up to it, but there’s just no one else to turn to.

The next debate will be interesting to watch. If Trump and Cruz set their sights on him, Rubio may again have a cringe-inducing performance or a worse gaffe that hobbles him. More than the usual travel-junket, I’d be concerned with upcoming debate prep if I’m Marco’s campaign manager.

Kasich

Give it up for John Kasich, he outlasted Bush! However, he is now facing calls to exit the race and get out of Marco Rubio’s way. It’s tough for him to make the case he’s not a spoiler. He has very little to look forward to on Super Tuesday and is instead focusing efforts on Michigan which isn’t until a week afterwards, and Ohio which is a week after that. In other words, of over thirty remaining states, he’s focused on two.

Granted, those are an important two states, but I just don’t see that turning the tide. The party is right. He needs to bow out and let Marco focus on taking down Trump.

Carson — still.

Ben Carson continues to not give up. Why? I’m legitimately starting to question whether this guy is as smart as everyone says he is. I’m certain his medical acumen is second to none, but his political insight is definitely questionable at this point.

There is no path to victory for him. I said it months ago. I was yelled at in the comments for it, but I was right. Ben Carson needs to stop. He is now only damaging his reputation by continuing with this charade. The only way he becomes president is as VP being sworn in after the untimely demise of president Ted Cruz.

Summary

Trump is tightening his grip.

Marco has emerged as the right’s only hope.

Cruz has an ambush coming up.

Kasich is playing spoiler.

Carson needs to call time of death (surgery joke, please laugh (Bush joke)).

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