Super Tuesday Analysis
Finally, after all the hype, Super Tuesday has come to winnow the field… or at least it’s come anyway. The frontrunners got more front, and the challengers have a bigger challenge. Donald Drumpf (a.k.a. ‘Trump’) now looks inevitable, and Bernie is somewhere between ‘on the ropes’ and ‘down for the count’.
On a personal note, I must say it was a joy participating in tonight’s caucus in Colorado. Turnout was extraordinary and in what was an interesting moment, voters in the large auditorium where we gathered were invited to play a piano that was sitting there while we waited for the half-mile line of people outside to file in.
We were treated to a Chopin concerto, some Scott Joplin ragtime, and moving rendition of John Lennon’s ‘Imagine’ which turned into an impromptu sing-a-long. Democracy can be a beautiful thing. People were disagreeing with intense civility and applauding one another for coming out. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. I love Colorado.
Now time to digress and get into the nitty-gritty.
Team Blue:
States that Voted: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado (woo!), Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia
Wins for Hillary: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, plus a narrow upset in Massachusetts
Wins for Bernie: Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Vermont
Hillary Clinton
She beat, but failed to crush and once-and-for-all dispose of Bernie. Hillary scored victories in seven states to Bernie’s four. She dominated the black vote, especially in the South. And she further tightened her grip on the nomination she’s been pursuing for years like Gollum in a pantsuit.
It was a good night for her, but losses in Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Colorado leave Bernie with enough reason to remain the elderly, socialist pebble in her heels. It hasn’t changed the dynamics of the race, but it gives her reason to start tentatively looking past Sanders to the general where Trump and his mighty hoards of imbeciles are ready to be given a lethal dose of serious consideration.
Tonight was a win for Hillary. She expanded her lead in the delegate count and is getting closer and closer to the nomination. The primary is almost over, but it ain’t over yet.
Bernie Sanders
Sanders dropped one in a narrow loss to Clinton in Massachusetts, but won everywhere else he needed to win. Still, this should by no means be mistaken for a winning night for ol’ Bernie. All he got was a reprieve, and one that won’t last long unless he starts winning.
He’s got some friendly territory coming up in the calendar with Nebraska on Saturday and Michigan in a week, but Louisiana and Mississippi are also on the docket and Southern blacks have thusfar been eager to fall in line and submit to another Clinton advance.
Bernie is fading and needs to win big in Michigan to have a real shot. It’s a huge state with a lot of delegates at stake. A win there shows voters (and his donor pool) that he’s still viable. It will be a rough week for him in the meantime.
Team Red:
States that Voted: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia
Wins for Trump: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia
Wins for Cruz: Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska
Wins for Rubio: Minnesota
Wins for the Electorate: -9
Donald Trump
Trump ran away with six states and it’s going to be very difficult for anyone to have an argument that Trump is still not inevitable. Marco has his head buried in the sand until Florida, and Cruz’s home-state win in Texas is only bound to encourage him. So in other words, Rubio and Cruz have switched places of second and third, and Trump has only solidified his place at number one.
Even once-rational Republicans are now holding their noses and rolling out endorsements of this venemous windbag. Most notable among them is soon-to-be-unemployed governor Chris Christie who has a lot of connections in Trump’s main business sphere in the New York/New Jersey and said he wants to start making “Trump money”. It was a sad display.
Still, not as sad as an actual Drumpf presidency, which is looking more likely as he closes in on the nomination and looks to be facing the less-electable Clinton now that Sanders looks to be in survival-mode.
Ted Cruz
You had one job, Texas. While it’s good you didn’t go full Alabama and pick Trump, you still went full Texas and picked the Texan for being from Texas. Yes, despite sagging support and looking like the test corpse for a mortician makeup class at a community college, Ted Cruz lives on. Why? Because Texas and Texas’ over-eager little brother Oklahoma decided “Hey I know that guy!”. And Alaska decided they were embarrassed enough after Sarah Palin and now want to try a different kind of embarrassment.
Cruz, now emboldened, will no doubt stay in the race and come up with new ways to sound passionate and authentic while making stuff up. This is it for Cruz, that was the end of his strategy. Now he’s relying sheerly on “momentum” to carry him the rest of the way.
Marco Rubio
There was one clear loser tonight and his name was Marco Rubio. After fifteen total states have had their say, he has won exactly one, liberal blue Minnesota. It might have been better for him if Trump had swept the night rather than Cruz taking two.
Still, he needs to win… something, somewhere before Florida. It’s doesn’t look good going forward if he keeps losing and only wins his home state.
John Kasich
Kasich is still in the race and still playing spoiler to Rubio. But he’s not budging from Michigan and Ohio. Much like Rubio now, he’s hoping desperately for one major spark to propel him into a one-on-one race with Trump.
Ben Carson… ‘member him?
Ben Carson is still being referred to as a Republican candidate for president…
That is all.
Summary
Super Tuesday didn’t settle it, but it certainly added some clarity to the narrative. Hillary and Donald just have to not screw this up. The term “Mayweathering” comes to mind. They are ahead far enough that they can just cruise to the conventions and begin looking ahead to their next opponent… although on both sides, there is still a chance…
