The Damien Lillard trade demand saga has finally come to an end with a three team deal being struck between the Blazers, Bucks and Suns. For the Blazers positions of need have been filled and the path to a Scoot Henderson centric future has been forged, for the Bucks they have shown Giannis that they are committed to putting him in position to win championships, and the Suns have added depth to a roster heavy on high priced scorers but without a the bench players needed to sustain a roster built around two players in their thirties.
BUCKS
The Bucks have unquestionably improved their 2020 championship outlook. This is what Giannis demanded of them when he publicly stated that he was only as committed to the franchise as they were willing to put him in a position to contend for a second ring. By bringing in a player of Lillard’s quality who was playing last season at or near the peak of his powers they have improved the potency of their offense and positioned themselves as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. Boston has taken a step back since they went seven games with the Bucks two seasons ago, Philly is in turmoil with James Harden demanding a trade that the counterpart has no interest in, and by making this move the Bucks prevent the reigning conference champions from adding Lillard themselves.
Jrue Holiday was the Bucks best perimeter defender, and potentially the best defensive guard in the league. Lillard will not be able to replicate this defensive prowess and the burden of making up for the lack of shutdown perimeter defense will fall to Giannis. His already immense responsibility controlling the paint will be increased substantially by the increased penetration ability that opposing guards will have matching up against Dame rather than Jrue. Even if Brook Lopez is able to maintain the level of play that had him in contention for defensive player of the year last year, the entire area inside the three point line and outside of the restricted area is now going to be Giannis’ responsibility. The Bucks have given him the better chance to win a title that Giannis requested but for them to contend he will need to elevate his play on the defensive end beyond where it has ever been before.
The reward for the defensive deficiencies that the losing Jrue creates will be the spacing that Dame is able to create. For the past several seasons the defensive strategy against Giannis has been to pack the paint with defenders and force him to settle for jump shots and three pointers. With a head of steam or in transition keeping Giannis from getting to the rim has been largely impossible, but when teams have had success slowing him down it has been when they have turned him into a jump shooter in the half court. Adding the second best distance shooter in the history of the NBA makes this strategy much more complicated for opposing defenses. Even drawing a single defender away from the paint who has to chase Lillard around screens and keep him from getting open looks will open the lane for Giannis in ways he has not seen since his ascent to superstardom. This will be the first time in Lillard’s career that he is not the focal point of an offense. He should see the most open looks and the clearest paths to the basket that he has had since he was at Weber State. It will be fascinating to see how the two are able to play together and the opportunities their skill sets create offensive end, and that is before considering the ways that the two of them will play off of each other, running pick and rolls, and unlocking Dame as a transition player.
This is not to say that the move by the Bucks is a can’t miss addition. Lillard is 33 and is on the books for $63 million in the 26–27 season. If he and Gianis are unable to click right away the Bucks will have little flexability to adjust or improve their roster. Dame will still be able to contribute as a floor spacer and shooter for the next several years, but his driving and shot creation rely on quickness and athleticism since he does not have the height advantage that may other elite NBA shooters have. If his scoring ability slows down Giannis may ultimately decide that his championship aspirations would still be better served in a different market. The draft capital that they are giving away could become a hugely valuable asset even if everything goes right over the next two seasons in Milwaukee.
The other X factor in this equation is Kris Middleton. Middleton struggled to stay on the court last year after being the second best player on the team that won the championship two years ago, and he was sorely missed. Without Holiday and Allen his minutes and work load, especially on defense, will increase significantly. If he is not able to return to his 2021 form the Bucks will struggle against the talented wing scorers in the eastern conference that have presented challenges to them in the past (Butler in Miami, Tatum and Brown in Boston).
The Bucks have improved their team and taken the necessary steps to provide one of the best players in the NBA with a better chance to win an title and reason to stay. If it goes wrong, however, they could see Giannis leave them with no draft picks and an enormous contract to be paid to an aging smaller guard.
Portland
This trade is an enormous winner for Portland. Just days ago they were looking at a Tyler Herro and Jovic package and instead have potentially improved their team in the short term. Rumors are circulating that they are looking to move Jrue before the season starts but if there is not an overwhelming package for him I am of the opinion that he is a perfect veteran presence to guide their young core, at least for the first half of the season. As good as Scoot and Sharpe project to be together their team will need someone to establish a defensive identity. Jrue can do this all by himself. He is not Dame Lillard and the move makes sense for Milwaukee but Holliday is an incredible talent and will be a great mentor to the young players on this roster if Portland keeps him around.
The addition of Deandre Ayton is a massive upgrade at the center position. Although he will always be marred by being one of the players taken ahead of Luka Ayton is a consistent 15 and 10 center who has played in the NBA finals. He 4 years younger than Jusuf Nurkić aligining him much better with the timetable of Portland’s young core. He is also a absolute physical specimine who does not have Nurkić’s grizly injury history. His contract is large at a position where there is depth and availability, but it is impossible to lose a trade financially when you send out a 33 year old player set to make over $60 million four seasons from now. There have been questions about Ayton’s commitment and chemestry fit (another great reason to keep Holiday around) but he also is someone that desperately needed a change of scenery and should see his offensive involvement increase on his new team. There is a reason that he was the number one overall pick in a draft with a known future superstar in it. I think it is entirely possible that the net addition of Holliday and Ayton is greater than the loss of Lillard and Nurkić not just in the future, but next season.
The contract that the Blazers gave to Jeremi Grant was hard to rationalize, but his is a great rotation player who has had success everywhere he has played. A starting lineup of Henderson, Sharpe, Holliday, Grant and Ayton, with Simmons contributing as a microwave scorer filing in some of the role that Lillard is vacating is not going to contend in the west next year, but I think will be formidable even in the short term.
Suns
The Suns look like the big loser in this trade. It is possible that they felt that Ayton was not going to bring the competitive edge needed to play with Durant, Booker and Beal, and that it was smart to cut ties when they had the chance, but this trade looks to me like Matt Ishbea finally started doing some back of a napkin accounting and realized that he needed to create more financial flexibility for the organization (and how much money he is going to be giving to the other teams in the league in the luxury tax). For a team in win now mode it is hard to rationalize turning a player as consistent and physically gifted as Ayton into this hodgepodge of below average role players. Nurkić is going to be asked to take on a huge role with this team, and if he struggles to hold up it will put a huge rim protection and rebounding burden on an aging Kevin Durant.
Other Teams
The obvious loser here is the Heat who now see their biggest rival in the east add the player they hoped would take them to the next level. Boston also might be regretting their decision to move Marcus Smart who, if he returns to good health next season could have been a great matchup for Dame if the two teams meet in the playoffs.
