The Bulls enter the 2023/24 season with no expectations and appear to be at a crossroads, trapped in the worst place to be in the NBA: the middle. They are considered to have no shot at the title (150–1 FauDuel odds) and are projected to miss the playoffs in an Eastern Conference that added Damien Lillard without losing an All Star to the West. Lonzo Ball was ruled out for the season before it began, the Bulls doubled down on their underachieving center as their primary off season move (their other maneuvers coming on the fringes), and did not add a rookie from the first round with their pick having been sent to Orlando. They are in conversations about whether they should sell off their best players for future assets and begin a rebuild, and they have an owner who is unwilling to go into the luxury tax to help the team win.
And yet; I am confident that the Bulls will significantly exceed their expectations, and optimistic that they can be in the mix with any team in the East other than the Bucks and Celtics.
LaVine is Ready
Last season Zach LaVine came into the year still recovering from off season knee surgery and struggled to get going. He was clunky in the offense, appeared out of shape (relatively speaking of course), was consistently out of position on defense, and did not have the athletic edge that makes him an elite scorer. His early season struggles culminated when he was benched in the fourth quarter in a loss to Orlando in late November. But LaVine bounced back in the second half of the season. He had huge improvements in his scoring, efficiency, and three point shooting after he was able to get back into rhythm and was playing consistently. He was an elite offensive player after the All Star Break, and as a catch-and-shoot three point shooter he was among the best in the league.
In the preseason this year Lavine has looked to have the quickness and bounce that eluded him at the beginning of last season. If he picks up where he left off he should be in contention to return to the All Star Game even with Lillard likely taking one of the guard spots. LaVine is the key to the Bulls team, and needs to play like one of the league’s best for the Bulls to avoid the Play-In Tournament. He looks ready to go.
A Trio of Young Players is Ready to Take a Leap
While the Bulls big three of Lavine, DeRosan and Vucevic are all in or past their primes, they have a trio of young players who will see increased minutes and opportunities this season. Coby White, Patrick Williams, and Ayo Dosumnu are all either 22 or 23 years old, and should be ready to take their games to the next level. The time is now for them to show if they can be contributing pieces for the franchise going forward.
Coby White made huge improvements on the defensive end last year, utilizing his height as a point guard, improved strength, and natural quickness to fill a hole in his game during his first few years in the NBA. He now needs to show that he can run the Bulls offense and take the reins as the team’s primary point guard. If he can create a first level of attack bringing the ball up it will do wonders opening up slashing and catch-and-shoot opportunities for Lavine and Williams on the second level. The Bulls thrived in transition last year and were stagnant when their 3 point averse team settled into ball-stopping half court offense. White has the opportunity to be the engine that keeps the Bulls playing at the fast pace that suits them best. White has only averaged more than 3 assists per game once in his career. If that number can jump up and he can push his 3 point percentage a little bit closer to the 40% mark it will pay huge dividens for the entire Bulls offense.
Patrick Williams was a project when the Bulls drafted him at number 4 overall in the 2020 draft. He has all the pieces to be an elite 3-and-D wing; at 6'8" he has the size and athleticism to match up with any wing scorer in the Eastern Conference, and he shot over 41% from three last year while doubling his attempts per game from the season before. Billy Donovan needs make sure that number of attempts continues to increase. Williams can help himself in that regard by improving as a threat to drive and slash if he starts finishing better around the basket. He has the athletic ability to incorporate much more of an at-and-above-the-rim game inside and the touch to be a consistent finisher. Establishing that inside threat will create more space for him beyond the arc. Williams is a restricted free agent at the end of this season and stands to make himself a ton of money if he can increase his offensive aggressiveness and emerge as one of the premiere wing defenders in the league. He has the potential to do both.
Ayo Dosunmu also has the opportunity to make the leap from second round steal/feel good story to significant contributor. Over his first two seasons he has been a player who does everything well, but he lacks an elite skill. I don’t know what that should be for Dosunmu, whether he has the touch to become a three point threat, the size to be a shut down defender who is not a point guard, or the poise to run an offense. But I have seen how hard he plays, that he does all of the little things on the court, that he is a ball mover in an offense that hsa lacked that quality, and most importantly that he seems to love basketball. I think he will figure out what it takes to be a great NBA role player.
Depth
On top of the Big 3 and the Young 3 the Bulls bring back an elite defender in Alex Caruso, and one of the most competent back up centers in the league in Andre Drummond.
While the changes that the Bulls made to their roster occurred at the fringes, they have upgraded in key areas. New point guard Jevon Carter will be an improvement on the minutes he inherits from Patrick Beverly. He will expand their floor spacing having shot 44% last season and 55% over 20 games the season before from three, and he will provide more stability running the offense; never having averaged more than one turnover per game in his career. Someone, though, is going to have to replace Pat Bev as the alpha dog for this team. His attitude and confidence were palpable and crucial for the Bulls last season.
Torrey Craig provides size and athleticism off the bench to fill in when Williams or DeRozan sit, and has the pedigree of stints with Denver, Phoenix, and Milwaukee over his career.
The Bulls are legitimately at 10 deep and could also see contributions from second year player Dalen Terry and veteran Derrick Favors. This depth will be an advantage in making it through the long regular season, but just as importantly gives the Bulls a lot of flexibility to make moves during the season. If they start hot and think they could be in the mix for the top tier in the conference they have the young players, salaries, and all of their draft picks other than a top 10 protected 2025 pick to work with. Alternatively if they decide to move one of their key players for future assets they likely would be better positioned to continue to compete than most teams who do so.
Conference Dynamics
There is no denying that there are two juggernauts at the top of the Eastern Conference in Boston and Milwaukee. Both were incredibly talented teams last year, and both made significant improvements during the off season. The rest of the East, however, looks much more vulnerable. Miami lost key players from their Finals roster, they put a lot of playoff miles on Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowery, and Kevin Love, and they missed out on Dame as an off season acquisition. Philly is in turmoil with the James Harden/Daryl Morey dispute, and there does not appear to be an imminent resolution on the horizon. Embiid got his MVP and will now be entirely focused on the part of his legacy that remains to be built; sustained success during a playoff run. At the beginning of last year both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were on the Nets, now they are retooling around Mikal Bridges. Cleveland had weaknesses exposed during the playoffs and still appears to be a piece away. Atlanta and Toronto have a lot of fit and chemistry issues it’s not clear that they can resolve. The Knicks are still the Knicks.
The Bulls were the 1 seed in the East in January 2022 when Lonzo Ball played his last game. They were unable to find their footing during the rest of that season, and last year they struggled to beat bad teams but regularly hung with and beat the good ones. If they can take care of business against the young and scrappy teams in the league, get back to the middle of the pack in 3 point attempts and percent, and get the buy in needed from their best players on defense, they could make some noise.
To quote the great Hanif Abdurraqib; There’s Always This Year.
