Rajon Rondo’s Odd Fit in New Orleans

Rajon Rondo Joins the Pelicans
On Wednesday Rajon Rondo finalized a 1-Year/$3,290,000 to join the New Orleans Pelicans. Head coach Alvin Gentry believes the duo of Rondo and Jrue Holiday can work when paired together. “I like Jrue off the ball to start the game as the scorer. I like Rondo being on the floor as a leader.” Gentry stated on the Dunc and Holder podcast. Later on in the podcast he added in, “Not only is Jrue a ball handler, but we like his scoring, and we like him playing off the ball sometimes”.
Given Gentry’s comments, it appears the New Orleans Pelicans are set on starting Rondo/Holiday/Solomon Hill/Anthony Davis/DeMarcus Cousins in the upcoming season. Before diving into the odd build of that lineup, Rondo’s recent impact on the game should be discussed. The 2017–2018 season will feature Rondo playing for his 5th team in 4 seasons. Dating back to the 2012–2013 season, every team he’s played for has fared better when he’s on the bench.

At this point, there is 5 years of data pointing to Rondo doing more harm than good when he’s on the floor. His skill set isn’t exactly a great fit next to Holiday, Davis and Cousins.
Shorthand Skill Set
- Gifted and willing passer
- Rebounds his position well
- Improved shooter, but still a non-factor for floor spacing
- Passive, and often passes too often, hurting the offensive flow
- Massive defensive liability
Potential Spacing Issues
Coach Gentry has discussed wanting another ball handler next to Holiday, to enable him more as a scorer. Putting him off the ball puts him in scenarios where he’s a catch and shoot player, and also unlocks some secondary pick & roll actions for the offense. Rondo is a more than capable play maker and floor general; however, teams don’t need to defend him off the ball. That is why throwing him into a lineup that features Davis and Cousins is a bit puzzling.
Incorporating two skilled giants like Davis and Cousins is difficult, but the potential payoff of both sharing the floor is huge. Typically, teams don’t have two big men that are capable of having the offense run through them. The difficulty isn’t related to the talent on the floor, it’s related to finding the proper floor balance, and flowing the offense throw both players simultaneously. Ideally, the Pelicans surround Davis and Cousins with players who are comfortable playing off the ball, and players who also excel at burying open jump shots. Placing shooters around the twin towers allows various actions to be executed without facing the same degree of help defense.
High-lows and 4–5 pick & roll plays become more difficult to execute if defenders are comfortable tagging the roll man, or helping around the block. Condensed spacing allows for defenders to be more opportunistic. Rondo has always been a player who needs the ball to have any sort of impact on the game. Defenders can cave in towards the ball when they’re defending him, making every aspect of offense more difficult, from making passes, to driving the lane. The lineup of Rondo/Holiday/Hill/Davis/Cousins doesn’t project as much of a floor spacer, according to Nick Sciria’s Spacing Rating. The lineup posts a spacing rating in just the 23.30th percentile.

Ray of Light
There is a reasonable chance that Rondo doesn’t make a big enough impact to turn the tides for the Pelicans. New Orleans is betting on a player that is both an awkward fit, and on the physical decline. Fear not Pelicans faithful, there’s also a fair chance that this marriage works out. Last season the Pelicans defended well as a unit, posting a defensive rating of 104.9, which ranked 9th across the association. Holiday is one of the better defensive point guards in the league, and Davis is one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. Dell Demps has surrounded them with versatile wing defenders like Hill and E’Twaun Moore. The hope is that a full camp of integrating Cousins will boost a pedestrian offense’s output.
Despite the arms race that is taking place out west, the Pelicans may be content with banking on improved health from core guys like Davis and Holiday. Last season, when they could play their desired lineups, the outcome was generally in their favor.

In most cases, the Pelicans had difficulty scoring last season. Despite the team’s offensive shortcomings, many of the key rotation players defended extremely well. The 4 man lineup of Holiday/Hill/Davis/Cousins posted a net rating of +5.3. That’s 4 starters playing well together. Demps and Gentry appear confident that the core can do more of the same when they add Rondo into the lineup.
Throughout his career, Holiday has done well when paired with another ball handler. Due to his 6'4 and 1/4" height and 6'7" wingspan, he can bump up and play the 2 guard without being completely over matched. A career 36.56% 3-point shooter with his play making bolsters any offensive attack, regardless of the position. Holiday being in attack mode at the 2 can give the offense an edge. During his tenure with the Pelicans he has generally functioned as the point guard; however, once Gentry took over before the 2015–2016 season Holiday has seen an increase in his time logged as an off guard.

Holiday has played in several duel point guard lineups in the past. He has operated as both the lead and off guard, and joined with Tyreke Evans to form an electric duo that helped bring the Pelicans to the playoffs. There were also instances were he played off the ball on the offensive end, and took the bigger guard defensively. Pairings that slid him up to the 2 weren’t as effective as the Holiday/Evans lineups, but they were competitive, and outscored the opponent when they were used.

There are plenty of examples of teams putting multiple ball handlers on the court at the same time. Both the Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers had success doing so this past season. Two point guard lineups can work in the NBA, and New Orleans may be able to make this work Rondo/Holiday backcourt work with Hill/Davis/Cousins. Opposing teams are going to clutter the elbows to lessen the damage that Davis and Cousins cause. At this point in his career it would be unfair to expect Rondo to become an impact shooter, but if he can hover around the 36.96% number that he posted the last 2 seasons from 3, and continue to shoot 44.8% and 43.8% from the corner (The last 2 seasons, respectively), the Pelicans will be in the playoff race.
The twin towers will demand the bulk of the defenses attention; it’s on Rondo to make enough plays off the ball, while maintaining the dangerous passing ability that he has always possessed. Damage can be done if he is able to probe near the basket, and hit the skyscrapers with dump off passes. The 2017 NBA off-season has been a race against time. Teams are swinging for the fences in hopes of catching the Golden State Warriors, while others are bidding their time until Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green reach the end of their prime. Rajon Rondo isn’t an ideal fit on the New Orleans Pelicans, but if he can do his strengths well enough, while minimizing the impact his weaknesses have, the Pelicans might be playing some more basketball come late April.
All statistics via Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
