Silicon Valley’s Top 10 Tech Trends 2015
Churchill Club’ s annual event featured a Panel of venture capitalists making forecasts on “emerging, non-obvious technology trends with the potential for explosive growth in the next 5 years.”
Mixed in with many “predictions” of trends already underway were one or two breakthrough ideas that were really exciting!
Panel included Steve Jurvetson of DFJ, Shervin Pishevar of Sherpa Ventures, Bill Gurley of Benchmark, Jenny Lee of GGV Capital and Rebecca Lynn of Canvas Venture Fund.
Each offered 2 predictions. Jurvetson and Gurley offered the most thought-provoking forecasts. And Steve Jurvetson won the most votes for vision — as he has before.
Which Top 10 predictions most excite you?
Trend #1 — On Demand Ambient Computing — Shervin Pishevar / Sherpa
On demand ambient computing will explode, “being driven by artificial intelligence to predict human intent at the speed of human thought.”
Processes will be linked end-to-end in an automated way. For example, if your flight gets delayed, your Uber pickup will be automatically updated. This was one of the few trends with which VCs and the audience all agreed.
Trend #2 — End of Traditional Banks and Bitcoin — Rebecca Lynn / Canvas
As a follow-on to one of Rebecca’s predictions last year, banks will dis-intermediate to become service platforms for fintech startups, delivering regulatory compliance, infrastructure and custodial relations. However, services innovation will be delivered by startups on the platform. And Bitcoin will fade in relevance.
Not all VCs agreed, pointing out that banks are heavily protected by U.S. Federal government, which limits re-invention. And millennials are driving adoption of startup solutions at the expense of traditional banks. Lastly, Bitcoin has a strong support faction and might be a useful model for China.
Trend #3 — “The Virtual Me” — Jenny Lee / GGV
With 50 billion devices on the Internet by 2020, creating 44 tectrabytes (that’s 1 million Gb) for data processing, at 5200 Gb of data per person, our every move will be tracked and built into detailed digital profiles that personalize all apps.
But Forbes moderators were quick to point out that this “prediction” re-appears every 2 years with a slightly different twist. And some VCs argued that people do not want to be tracked so extensively. However, a “smarter personal assistant” could take advantage of the Internet of Things in a more accepted way.
Trend #4 — Skynet Economy: Broadband for Unconnected Billions
Steve Jurvetson / DFJ
Today, low-altitude satellites have better latency than fiber. Every part of the earth can be covered equally with technology via the OneWeb Ltd program for satellite constellations. Virgin and Qualcomm have already invested in the program. SpaceX, Google and Iridium are competing — each with $1B invested.
But can end-to-end global connectivity really be reached by 2020? Not all VCs agreed, due to the Herculean effort required. But it’s coming!
Trend #5 — End of the Auto Nation — Bill Gurley / Benchmark
For most of this century, cities have been designed around car ownership. The 240 million cars in U.S. are idle 96% of the time, while the 1.6 billion cars globally are idle 80% of the time. Do we really need so many cars?
Uber is partnering with San Francisco residences to provide ridesharing in lieu of parking spaces, so the city can build more living space with greater quality of urban life.
Not all Panelists agreed that car ownership would decline so dramatically in the next 5 years, because the car provides freedom and is a status symbol in U.S. and developing nations.
But Bill Gurley sees millennials as redefining the car as utilitarian, while smartphones are now the center of freedom.
Hoverboard anyone? That’s coming too.
Trend #6–5th Mode of Transportation — Shervin Pishevar / Sherpa
Technologies like Hyperloop will leapfrog traditional transportation modes the way wireless leapfrogged land-based connectivity in developing nations. And cities/urban sprawl will become villages again.
Pishevar spoke of Hyperloop Technologies’ first model that runs at 700 mph. A first track is expected in 24 months. Other technologies to revolutionize mass transportation include a) vertical take-off supersonic jets, and b) amphibious massive drones that carry cargo from China to U.S. at half the current cost, in international waters outside of regulatory limitations.
Nonetheless, Panelists anticipate that regulatory hurdles and infrastructure, especially for Hyperloop, will prevent explosive growth by 2020.
But many agreed these are the pioneering startups. It’s not just about “140 characters” anymore.
Trend #7 — Re-emergence of Women In High Tech — Rebecca Lynn / Canvas
In the next 5 years, half of all computer science/IT graduates will be women. Up until 1984, there were many prominent women tech founders and developer graduates. But post-1984 saw a serious decline as PCs entered the home, presumably because most apps were for gaming, like War Games. Rebecca Lynn suggested that women lost interest in being developers because it was no longer fashionable.
But women’s mentoring and code academies like Girls Who Code will bring the number of women back to half of all CS graduates.
Steve Jurvetson cited a Google study of 1600 women who majored in computer science as the best way to “have a meaningful impact.”
Panelists and audience applauded a resurgence of women in tech. With the explosion of the on demand world, where we manage our lives from our mobile devices, the voice of both genders is required to meet all service needs. This one’s a no-brainer.
Trend #8 — “The Economy of Me” — Jenny Lee / GGV
By 2020, 4 billion people will be online. The concept of location-based retail will disappear. Brick and mortar stores will be obsolete, as everything will be available online and delivered to our homes. And BRIC countries will drive the explosive growth.
This was another “prediction” Panelists thought was “keenly obvious” because the online world is already exploding. Steve Jurvetson also cited reasons why the online economy will double but not exceed the offline economy.
I too struggled with this expectation, as human beings are social creatures and need to be with other people to survive. It’s that simple.
So for as many innovations that keep us at home for convenience’s sake, we will invent other reasons to connect with other people in person.
The “Economy of Me” also seems U.S.-centric, as other nations do not have nearly the supply chain infrastructure we have, for home delivery of everything.
Trend #9 — Rise of Robocars; Machine-Driven Autonomous Vehicles — Steve Jurvetson / DFJ
By 2020 there will no longer be debate on the value of robocars. U.S. spends $2 billion on oil daily. With sensor costs coming down and safety performance rising, self-driving vehicles offer greater efficiency and cost-effectiveness, especially in urban areas. And teen driving will decline enormously — a safety benefit for all!
Uber found that 35% of consumers use Uber so they can drink and not drive. Must be San Francisco consumers!
While Panelists did not all agree, most expect autonomous vehicles to be adopted for commercial driving first.
Trend #10 — Mobile Web (HTML + deep search of mobile environment) — Bill Gurley / Benchmark
The browser/search Internet platform is maturing. The next wave will be the mobile web — apps developed explicitly for mobile devices, which will be the center of our access to everything.
For example, programming your Dish TV will become easier on your mobile app than on your browser.
I just downloaded a CVS Pharmacy app. Who would have thought I could interact with my local drugstore via its own app!
China’s access will be mostly mobile web. And search leaders like Google will move up the stack, making it risky for startups in that space … or will it lead to more acquisition exits?
The Panel mostly agreed on mobile web, although this trend is well underway. In fact, smartphones will consume 90% of all broadband access by 2020!
What do you think about 2015's Top 10 Tech Trends? Any surprises? Anything missing?
What struck me most was that it’s a good thing cloud-based infrastructure is commoditizing so we can simply afford to manage the enormous data and connectivity needed for our mobile-on demand world.
