The Reason Why No One Trusts Polls Anymore
Mainstream Media Is Still Using Outdated Sampling Data
This new poll, by the ABC and Washington Post, is the very reason why people will forever distrust polls.
As Donald Trump approaches his 100th day in office on April 29th, the Washington Post and ABC News interviewed a random…www.washingtonpost.com
Here is the link to the methodology, something that just about no one will ever read.
Now, the takeaway from that methodology is this image, the party affiliation:
Look at those numbers. Dems have stayed at about the 31–34% range since March 6th of last year. Republicans have stayed about about 23–25%. Independents have been at about 32–36%. How can republicans be that low? What is going on? Below are the exit polling data from CNN and Fox.
As we can see, CNN gave republicans 33% as well as Fox. In fact, they both found the same results. So, how are these exit polls showing something like 33% republican when the polls are sampling only 24%? Literally, just about all of these polls are oversampling democrats and even independents in some respects. You notice how in the ABC/WaPo poll, the percentages surveyed for republicans didn’t go up? That can be directly correlated to Trump’s “low” polling numbers. When you oversample people who hate him, I wonder what their response will be!
Makes you think when the entirety of mainstream media holds onto the same old data that is already proven to be wrong, why do they keep using it? Why are they oversampling democrats in every poll when the exit polls for the primaries and the election did not support those numbers? The only reason someone can think of is to further enforce a false narrative.
The mainstream media (specifically the left) likes to always show Trump’s favorability is in the crapper. If they start taking correct samples, it might destroy that narrative. The problem as I see it, they’ve used this same set of data for the longest time and they might not want to shy away from it. If they do, it means they were wrong the entire time. It means the “experts” on polling were all 100% wrong. I’d honestly be surprised if the mainstream media will accurately sample republicans anytime soon.