Watch out for US elections 2020
OK lets go out on a not very big limb here. Hillary will win the 2016 election.
Trump winning would be a disaster but Hillary winning will not be much better.
At his point we don’t know the final results, but the polls are much closer than they should be, considering all of the groups Trump has alienated. You can’t help thinking that if the Republicans had managed to muster anyone half human Hillary would have been flattened.
However, what this will mean is four more years of a consensus nobody wants. One which is hurting many people. By 2020 the resentment in the status quo will be many times worse.
The last 50 years or so of globalization and free trade has reached it’s zenith. The insatiable greed of those at the top has changed a system that could benefit everyone to one that impoverishes many.
So given that many people are worse off, they will look for someone to blame. In essence they could go left or go right. The centrist consensus has broken down.
We see the rise of more right and left wing parties in many countries that we would have thought were more stable. The UK voted for brexit. The mood of the voters has changed.
Why is this worrying for 2020?
Hillary will not budge any further left, she has no socialist tendencies, and it seems no humility. After a reasonably close race with Sanders, she did not soften any of her positions or choose a compromise running mate. She took for granted that democratic voters would vote for her.
Because of Trump, many of them will. However Trump is not the problem, he is merely the symptom of a much deeper malaise. This will not go away after the election, it will only fester and grow. Hillary seems to not even recognize it is there, let alone do anything to address it.
In 2020 there will be even more discontent. However Hillary will be sticking to the center ground that nobody wants. American voters will not have a viable left wing party to turn to. If they want change, they will only have one choice it will not be Trump, but it will very likely share a great many of his policies.
If whoever it is appears remotely human the people who are only voting for Hillary this time round to keep Trump out, will stay home. Many republicans who could not stomach Trump will vote for them.
I am calling it four years out. 2020 will be a Republican landslide.