I’m Not Sold on Victor Wembanyama

Introduction

Victor Wembanyana is one of the highest rated prospects in basketball history. The 18 year old from France has been garnering national attention since the basketball world caught wind of him last year, and the hype has only grown since then. Most people have him going number one in the 2023 NBA Draft, and people are even saying that Wembanyama is the greatest NBA prospect ever, even over Lebron James. Now, while I think he is going to be a spectacle to watch for the rest of his time playing in the Euro and G League, today I wanted to talk about why I do not think he is going to be as great as people think he will be in the NBA.

His Size

Stephen A. Smith brought this up around a week ago on First Take, and was meant with staunch criticism. However, I do not think he was wrong to bring this up. Wembanyama is listed at 7’2”, but the eye test (and the photo with the 7’2” Rudy Gobert) prove that he is more than likely 7’5”-7 ‘7”. Along with being almost 8 feet, Victor Wembanyama is listed at 209 bounds. Assuming they got his weight wrong (google) like his height, I can give Wembanyama an extra 10–20 pounds of weight to him. That is not a good sign. I could reference Yao Ming to prove my point, but it would be much easier for me to highlight a much more recent player to prove my point. Chet Hologram, the number two pick in the NBA Draft this year, is currently injured due to a ligament tear in his foot. Hologram is listed as 7’2”, and as of now weighs between 190–200 pounds. I remember the memes of people joking about “wait until he takes a charge from Lebron” that we would all laugh at in anticipation of his league debut. Unfortunately for Chet, he ended up taking that charge from Lebron ; the charge ended up costing Chet Hologram his entire rookie season. Do I think Victor Wembanyama will tear something in his foot if he takes a charge from Giannis? No, and I certainly hope that will not be the case. However, that is a reasonable concern to have for a player built like Wembanyama. His skinny build makes him much more injury prone out of the gate, which is something that may come to bite him in the NBA. Now, he has not had any injuries as of now, but that is because of how he is played. In France, Wembanyama gets the leisure to play as a PF & SG hybrid, so he does not need to be in the paint unless he happens to grab a rebound or block. The thing is, in the NBA, he most definitely will be in the paint. Wembanyama will be tasked to go against Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Anthony Davis. These are all players who are much more muscle heavy than Wembanyama, and will give him something he will have never experienced before : no fear. What I mean by that, is in the NBA, players will not be afraid of Victor’s size. In the many highlights I’ve seen, most players playing against Victor have some sort of fear in going to the paint and taking it to him due to the fear of becoming the next victim of his highlight reel. The thing is, the players I mentioned will not care about that in the slightest. Victor may get a few blocks on players, but eventually his lack of muscle and size will catch up to him.

Lack of Competition

Speaking of the NBA, the competition Victor will be facing night in and night out will be completely different from the competition he has currently faced. Do I think Victor has been playing cans? Not necessarily, but I am certain he has not played NBA Level talent on a consistent basis. You could argue that the best player he has played against so far is Scoot Henderson, who is elite in his own right, is only a 6’2” point guard. Wembanyama has a slight problem with the speed of Scoot, and I feel that will only be exposed to a worser degree in the NBA. After a pick & roll, Wembanyama will be put on an island to guard elite guards like Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Darius Garland, Damian Lillard, and Donavan Mitchell just to name a few. Unless Victor shows me he can guard elite guards on a consistent basis before draft night, I see him getting crossed almost every other night in the NBA. Victor’s hand length is talked about as a testament to his defense potential, but hand size means nothing if you can never actually keep up with the ball. Even elite forwards like Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, and Kawhi Leonard will more than likely not have a field day with Victor because he has not played against players with more skill set (ball handling wise) and more speed on top of that. The problem is not just his size with centers, but the elevated jump in competition in general. I can say the same defensively as well, because most NBA players will actually put their bodies on Victor Wembanyama. I mentioned the fear aspect earlier, but in most of Victor’s shots I’ve seen so far have little to know defensive presence. Half of that is probably because his competition has no method of stopping him, but another part of that is of course they would rather not try to stop him and get embarrassed in the process. I’m speculating here, but this could potentially lead to Wembanyama having a false sense of security entering the league, which will quickly get shut down the moment teams play defense on him.

Actual Skill Set

I want you to ask yourself, what has Victor Wembanyama actually shown us? His biggest comparison he has gotten is “a taller Kevin Durant”, but to me, his skillset is not close to Kevin Durant’s. He does not have the ball handling Durant does, nor has he proven to me he can hit the shots Durant has hit over high level defenders. Victor has not shown me any real inside skills either, with most of his paint points coming from dunks in transition, or easy layups due to no one on the floor daring to contest him. I think Wembanyama’s defense is solid, but as I mentioned, he will get killed on the perimeter by guards, and will have trouble dealing with bigs that have more size and athleticism than him. I am not saying he has no skills, but I doubt he will run the NBA as soon as he gets into the league. In fact, I am not sure if I will ever run the league like people say he will. He seems to use his size to his advantage (rightfully so), but outside of hitting some tough jump-shots, I have not seen anything that makes him “elite”. His dribble bag is not that deep, his inside game has not been tested, and half the shots he hits are wide open. I Will give him credit for having a consistent jump shot, but Wembanyama needs to show a lot more before I put all my faith in his success in his skillset making up for the physical and competition deficits working against him.

Being the First Round Pick

Everybody talks about the accomplishment of being the first round pick, but nobody talks about the downside of being the first round pick. Outside of hooping, it is fair to say that everyone who is a professional basketball player cares about winning. The problem with being the first round pick is that you will almost always be going to the worst team in the NBA. There are rare occasions like James Wiseman who went to the Golden State Warriors as the second pick, but the Warriors had a horrible season the year they won the 2022 NBA Championship. More than Likely not, Victor Wembanyama will end up on a team like the Thunder, the Blazers, or the Pacers. At least for the first few years of his career, Victor Wembanyama will do nothing but stack of highlights for himself and get to play with a couple of other high first-round draft picks if he is not able to carry his team. On top of that, Victor does not have any leverage to demand a trade to a high profile team, and any team that will tank for him will have no plans of trading him anytime soon. Along with all of the other concerns I listed for Victor, this could be his downfall. If Victory gets a bad team and on top of that gets exposed/injury ridden (which I strongly hope against), his stock will plummet by the time he gets to request a trade. Though they are completely different players, this almost reminds me of Yao Ming. Yao was a great player when he was healthy, but because of injuries, he was never ever really able to make a deep run, nor could he force his way out of Houston because most teams did not want to take a chance on him and his injuries. Depending on how drafts him, he may not even get a chance to fully develop into the talent he could be in the league if the NBA system he ends up playing for is not great for development. For example, say the Portland Trailblazers draft him. Wembanyana would end up getting paired with Damian Lillard, and while that could be a good duo, could also end up stunting his own growth as a player due to the fact he would take a backseat to Damian Lillard. I think he would still be fine seeing what skills he has, but due to his height they could easily throw him in the paint due to Portland’s lack of a big. I already mentioned how I see that turning out, and Victor playing in the post every night would be the easiest way to get him injured. Being the first round pick is a huge honor, but few number one picks can do what Lebron James did. Not only do you have to be good enough to carry your team to deep playoff runs multiple times, but your roster has to be so bad that your team feels bad enough to put you on a championship contending team.

Conclusion

For the record, I want to see Victor Wembanyama do great things in the NBA. I just do not think that he will be as good as people are saying the moment he gets into the NBA. If Victor surprises me, then I will gladly eat my words about how I thought he would perform in the NFL. However, I just think there are too many things pointing to me being right about Wembanyama. If I am, I think he can still be elite, but it will take quite a few years in the NBA to really reach his potential. Until then, I hope you enjoyed the article, and I will see you guys in the next one.