To count or not to count? Defence for counting superdelegates in the Democratic primaries

I’ve had a number of people mention to me that I should not be including superdelegates when I report the delegate estimates in the Democratic party race. However, I believe that doing so would only mislead my readers and leave them with a false impression of the race.

Before I get into my reasons for this, let’s remind ourselves how the primary system works on the Democratic side. 4765 delegates will attend the National Convention at the end of July. 4051 (85%) of those are pledged delegates, decided in the primary contests across the 50 states, 6 territories and the expat community. The remaining 714 (15%) are superdelegates, made up of senior party leaders in each state and territory who are free to vote however they wish. Currently, they are siding towards Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by a margin of 488–41 out of those who have declared their intention.

Many have told me it is undemocratic to include the superdelegates when reporting the state of the race, as they are not elected by the voters and have the ability to change their minds. While both of these are true, this does not mean that they should be excluded. Given that the sizeable share that the superdelegates make up can be potentially enough to tip the balance in this race, I believe it is important to understand how they intend to vote in order to get a true sense of what to expect on the convention floor.

Compare the two graphics above. The second graphic, showing just the pledged delegates, suggests that the vote on the floor of the convention is set to be very close. It gives the impression that Hillary Clinton is still a long way away from winning the nomination, and that decent showings from Bernie Sanders will be enough for him to clinch the nomination. We know that both of these untrue, because we know how lopsided the superdelegates are.

There is certainly an argument to be made that the whole idea of superdelegates is undemocratic, and that’s a debate that the Democratic party may come under pressure to consider. But as long as they are part of the system, to not report on how they intend to vote to the extent that this is known would only serve to mislead the American people.