A Tale of Two Primaries: The Fifty State Campaign

In a rare off-week in the primary season, candidates from both parties have been barnstorming Wisconsin and looking farther to New York. For political pundits and reporters, declaring this year’s primary campaigns to be anomalous would be an immense understatement. Outsider candidates, dark money from PACs, populist support, and large primary fields along with the close delegate counts in both contests make this year’s primaries the most unusual contests since World War 2. Candidates are still furiously campaigning at a point in many prior campaigns when the party’s nominee would already be a foregone conclusion.

In 2008, Barack Obama’s primary campaign success over Hillary Clinton was based on a fifty state strategy of gaining primary delegates in caucus states where the enthusiasm of his supporters could be converted into lopsided delegate wins. By the time the Clinton campaign realized what was happening, it was already too late. He nursed a lead into the national convention and persuaded enough super delegates to support his nomination.

This year, both parties are engaged in fifty state campaigns and have employed a variety of strategies. On the Democratic side, the Clinton campaign seems to have learned its lesson from 2008 and is holding on to a small but significant delegate lead created by an aggressive national ground campaign. The Sanders campaign has the enthusiasm of the Obama campaign but so far has lacked the clear analytical strategy which was the latter’s hallmark.

On the Republican side, the picture is more complex. What was once a seventeen candidate field has been whittled down to three. The Trump campaign has successfully leveraged mass media to reach out and engage with Republican voters whose defining characteristic seems to be a dislike and anger with establishment candidates. The Cruz campaign has tried to replicate the Obama campaign’s analytical focus but without the broad excitement that characterized it. The Kasich campaign at this point is simply trying to hold on hoping for a contested convention where he can present himself as a compromise on a second ballot.

These two fifty state campaigns offer voters in every state the rare opportunity to meet and even speak with candidates. This offers voters a rare opportunity and the evidence so far is that the two parties differ significantly. Democrats are more content with their primary choices than are Republicans. This bodes poorly for the GOP as it looks toward the 2016 general elections as it will have to work hard to convince unhappy supporters to vote for a candidate they already voted against. Moreover, the specter of a third party run by a disgruntled losing candidate hangs over contest.

In the end however, both parties despite the current rhetoric will unify around their nominated candidate. The question is how many voters heed their parties’ call? At this point, it seems that more voters with a Democratic-leaning will rally in November.