According to St. Google, the population of India is 1.252B. I understand the figures are a bit older but TRAI data more than IAMAI figures. At least in the US, industry trade organizations tend to show off data in the most favorable light. I’d prefer more current data but will wait for TRAI to come out with its next report. When all is said and done, let’s suppose there are 450M Internet users in India giving us an even 800M unconnected (about 2/3rds of the population). Looking again at TRAI’s numbers its highly likely Internet growth occurred in the urban rather than rural areas given SES and infrastructure issues. I’ve seen many Indian Internet advocates excitedly claiming that Internet adoption will continue to accelerate. That’s true up to a point. Bridging the last mile, even in India will always be harder. Growth is occurring among the “low hanging fruit” of potential users. It will get much harder and the adoption rate will slow down dramatically barring interventions to address the situation. It does everywhere.

As for Facebook’s data, OK. Let’s throw it out. Now TRAI has no data to base its policy recommendation on. To be sure, TRAI has voiced many fears about what might happen with the introduction of zero-rate services in India, but their final ruling doesn’t include any empirical data about its effect. It’s essential all potential detrimental effects. The fact is there is a paucity of data regarding the real effects of zero rating on the Indian Internet ecosystem. That’s an unsound basis for policy.

A better solution by far would have been for TRAI to grant Facebook a 18–24 month experimental license for Free Basics. During the that period TRAI as the regulator would compel Facebook under the terms the experimental license to share data regarding people adopting Free Basics. Face book would have no guarantee that the license would be renewed. At the end of that period TRAI could then make sound, data-based policy on zero rating/differential pricing, which could result in it being banned, allowed conditionally, allowed unconditionally, or extending the experimental term for more data.

The “picking and choosing” of data is a consequence of the absence of reliable relevant data or even the non existence of data at all. As it stands, we can’t know what effects Free Basics has on the Indian Internet Ecosystem because we really have no data so policy about its effects is based upon so much fearful rhetoric borne out of faith and belief; a lousy way to make public policy.