If you are involved in the Drip Network, you have probably heard that Drip’s developer, Forex_Sh4rk, is developing a scratch ticket lottery system that is the first of its kind in crypto. While we still don’t know everything about how he will implement this system he has dropped several hints and details, some of which I will go into below. Please note that all the content below makes a lot of assumptions and is extraordinarily speculative, highly opinionated, while also containing some tremendously optimistic and roughly estimated “back of the napkin” math. So please bear with me and of course none of this should be taken as financial advice.
*Article updated August 2022 with new numbers
So just why is this scratch ticket model for the Drip Network BULLISH BEYOND BELIEF?
Well for starters, in 2017 the United States of America spent an average of over US$200 per person annually on lotteries, and according to some sources roughly half of that was spent specifically on scratch tickets. That amounts to around US$33 BILLION dollars spent in one year on scratch tickets nationwide… YES, you read that right: US$33,000,000,000.
The above figures are for an entire country, but here is a hypothetical for you to consider: imagine the entire Drip Network Community as a small city in the US, let’s call it Drip City, with a population of around 110,000 people (i.e. number of Drip players currently in the system). Will Drip scratch tickets do similar sales numbers as the US national average? Anything is possible and it still remains to be seen, but for the sake of speculation let’s also assume our average annual purchase per Drip City citizen is the same as the US national average at US$100/person in scratch tickets, in which case would be equal to $11,000,000 in total annual sales in Drip City.
In a recent AMA, Forex_Sh4rk said 15% of the total Drip scratch ticket sales volume will go to buy Drip. That means this 15% will constitute the buy-side of any trade and will soak up a lot of Drip that is currently being sold on the market. He also said the purchased Drip will either be sent to the tax vault or deposited into the Faucet. Personally, I would like to see most of that purchased Drip go straight to the tax vault and maybe some to the Reservoir, but that’s a matter for Forex_Sh4rk to decide.
Back to the projected $11,000,000 in annual sales revenue, 15% of that is $1,650,00 which would be used to purchase Drip. Therefore, $1,650,000 would be able to purchase 110,000 Drip/year or around 9167 Drip/month at $15 Drip. Of course the Drip price will not stay constant over the year so the amount of Drip that could be purchased will change, but there should still be a good amount of transactions on the buy-side to soak up some of Drip’s sales volume.
Around 9,000 Drip per month in purchases is only considering a national US average spend of $100/person per year on scratch tickets. When the scratch ticket system is fully implemented and working, we will have a better idea of whether or not Drip will meet these averages (or exceed them), but for now let’s have a little fun by being wildly speculative and plug in the numbers for individual US states with the HIGHEST lottery sales revenue and see what it looks like.
Top Five States in Lottery Annual Spending per Person
- Massachusetts, $977.71
- West Virginia, $741.40
- Rhode Island, $643.54
- Delaware, $548.13
- New York, $539.63
Let’s pretend Drip City is in Massachusetts where the annual spend on lotteries was US$977.71 per person in 2017. As before, for the sake of this hypothetical situation we need to assume that roughly half of that US$977.71 goes to scratch ticket purchases and the other half is spent on lotteries like PowerBall. Half of $977.71 roughly equals $488.86 and therefore an average of $488.86 in annual scratch ticket sales revenue for all 110,000 Drip City residents would be equal to ~$53.8 million. 15% of $53.8 million is ~$8 million, and therefore $8 million would be able to buy 533,000 Drip annually with the Drip price at $15, a good chunk of Drip’s total supply. That means ~45K Drip per month could be purchased on Drip’s native DEX, and as we’ve seen from recent price trends, when the DRIP/BNB supply on Drip’s native DEX is lowered, Drip price tends to trend upwards. Here are a couple tables to give you an idea of the revenue potential if we are like a Top 5 state and the number of people involved in the ecosystem grows:
Are you starting to get excited yet? I know I am. The added buying pressure from the Drip purchases through the scratch tickets sales will be hugely supportive for the price of Drip regardless of whether Drip City’s average sales are similar to a state like Massachusetts at $488.86/person or similar to the US national average of $100/person, or possibly even less. With the amount of players in the Drip system growing daily, imagine when the population of Drip City doubles, triples, quadruples, and so on. We could have potentially tens of millions of dollars (or more) regularly flowing back into the system to buy up Drip supply and help mitigate selling pressure.
If we achieved a total population of 1 million citizens each spending an average of $100 annually on these tickets and 15% of those sales going to buy Drip at $15, that would be over 1 million Drip that could be purchased over a full year, which just also happens a large portion of the total supply of Drip. Just for clarification, there’s no chance that ALL the supply could ever be purchased at once, but I imagine the purchases would probably be scattered over a period of time to support the Drip price as necessary. I am looking forward to more explanations from Forex_Sh4rk about this, but I hope you can start to see the direction we are going — the potential amounts this system could generate are staggering.
As if all that wasn’t already enough, Forex_Sh4rk says that losing tickets will be NFTs that can be staked as ownership in the protocol, so even if you lose, you can still gain from this system which will further incentivize people all across the system to participate. This sounds amazing as well and I’m looking forward to hearing more details about this soon.
After reading all this maybe you are not BULLISH BEYOND BELIEF like me yet, but I hope you are at least excited. If you aren’t even a little excited, then I have not done a good enough job explaining the massive potential of this system nor have I done justice to this brilliant idea. However, I would recommend doing just a bit of research yourself, play around with some numbers, and perhaps you will start to get an idea of how much potential revenue scratch tickets could bring in. Also, I have been using just one year and the US as the basis for these calculations, but these scratch tickets will be borderless and available worldwide when ready. People around the world who are not even in Drip yet should also be able to buy these tickets and could potentially bring in new investors into Drip’s ecosystem.
Oh yes — I almost forgot to mention that Forex_Sh4rk will do the same for the Animal Farm, but that’s another article for another day.
No one can say for sure if the Drip scratch tickets sales volumes will ever reach the kind of highly optimistic projections shown above, and I am sure I will be proven to be very wrong one way or the other on these numbers. We will just have to wait and see but crazy things can happen in crypto so I believe these kind of numbers could be possible someday. Even a fraction of these numbers will be a huge boost to the Drip Network.
Finally, while it is fun to make projections we don’t really know all the details about the scratch ticket system yet, so keep in mind that the above is pure speculation and should be taken with a grain of salt — and as always this should definitely NOT be considered financial advice. However, it is my opinion that this first of its kind scratch ticket system will be extremely bullish and healthy for the entire Drip ecosystem.
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These articles are primarily written for the current Drip investor, but if you do happen to be new here and want to learn more about how to get started in Drip there is a wealth of information available at this website: https://www.dripplayers.com
This is NOT my website but you will find everything you need to know there along helpful responses to your questions.
Also, you can find everything you need to know about the DRIP NETWORK and the ANIMAL FARM on the official Drip Wiki: https://dripcommunity.wiki/
