The Establishment Lane Is Clear. Where Is John Kasich?
“I prefer John Kasich, but he has no chance…”
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) isn’t the only Republican who understands that the likes of Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) are sinking the Republican ship yet lacks confidence that the USS Kasich has the buoyancy to win the Republican primary. Many Republicans, particularly the so-called establishment and elected GOP officials, have eschewed the two frontrunners of the GOP presidential primary until recently. Republican after Republican lined up to announce that the pair (especially Donald Trump) does not represent the party. The problem with that is that voters are choosing them as the “best” representatives of the party. The schism erupting within the GOP is often discussed and has been analyzed from various angles. One perspective that seems to be used more sparingly than others is the lens of political representation.
“[Trump] doesn’t represent the Republican Party or its values.” — Former Floridian Governor Jeb Bush
Political representation is a principal-agent relationship. The interests of a principal entity is translated into reality within a given political context. In a representative democracy, elected representatives translate the will of the people into public policy. That definition presupposes that (1) the will of the people is communicated, (2) elections decide who translates that will, and (3) representatives act as loyal agents rather than rogue ersatz principals (this is not to be confused with the separate context of whether officials are representatives or trustees). The purpose of elections, then, is to choose which representatives the people trust to execute public policy that most closely matches their will. Further, reports of a potentially brokered Republican convention reflect the people’s inability to clearly, cohesively communicate their will.
For months, establishment Republicans complained that the “establishment lane” was too crowded for the party to rally around one of the moderate candidates in order to euthanize Donald Trump’s campaign. Now that Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, George Pataki, and Marco Rubio (who never belonged in the establishment lane to begin with) have all fallen, the road seems clear. Still, Governor John Kasich (R-OH) is cruising alone. The concept of political representation described above should result in all those moderate/establishment Republicans consolidating behind their last standing standard bearer. Especially with Trump and Sen. Cruz splitting the racist, xenophobic, sexist, and otherwise chauvinistic demographics, one would expect Gov. Kasich to perform well…or at least avoid trailing in a dismal third place out of three. Instead, Trump continues to top national polls and win most state contests. Cruz wins the others. After winning his home state of Ohio, Gov. Kasich has all but disappeared. Establishment Republicans, who have typically succeeded in choosing a relatively moderate nominee for their party, are without representation. Their interests (social, political, and electoral) are being undermined by the very system they developed to protect them.
Gov. Kasich’s dilemma can be viewed several ways. The first is to recognize that modern Republicans are far right of crazy and that what is happening in the GOP primary is in fact representative of Republican political desires. That is, Republican voters are voting more sincerely than they have in past elections. Another way is to look at Republican voters as voting strategically, as American voters tend to do, but without the ability to strategize. Alternatively, perhaps the conservative mantra that Republicans keep losing (wherever that idea came from) because the GOP keeps nominating moderate candidates instead of conservative firebrands has set in, and Republican voters are giving that hypothesis a try. The establishment lane is finally clear…just the way conservatives want it. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and company weren’t waiting their turn or taking advantage of an opportunity with establishment moderates. They weren’t rallying the Trump/Cruz opposition. They were in the way. Governor John Kasich simply hasn’t been pulled over by the conservative police yet.
