Background:
The logic of violence determines how violence is used. There are four elements that inform the logic of violence: cost, ease of use, reward, and opportunity. Generally calculated by a SWOT analysis. If violence becomes cheaper, large rewards and there are lots of opportunities; violence will increase exponentially. Likewise, if violence becomes more costly, its ease of use becomes more complicated and since there are less opportunities, less violence will occur.
However, the logic of violence is applied on three levels. The individual level, the regional level, and the nation-state level. (Note there is actually several more however for the sake of time they are not mentioned.) Given the state and future of technology, the logic of violence will dictate the future use of violence.
The Current State of Violence: the Modernization of 3rd Generation Warfare.
Currently, due to the advent of nuclear weapons and the mutually assured destruction (MAD) that comes with them, the costs are too high for violence on a nation-state level. With marginal rewards in comparison. The cost to create and maintain armies, satellites, nuclear weapons, missiles, rail-guns and limited to the most advanced countries. Countries now commit economic warfare or fight proxy wars through smaller actors.
The second level is regional level. You likely know them as civil wars, terrorism, uprisings, rebellions etc. The costs are much lower and to the groups involved the rewards are worth the risks. These are more common now as MAD creates unfathomable costs for nation-state actors with marginal rewards in comparison. In the future, regionalism violence will increase especially if we return to the city-state model. This is due to the increasing amount of actors and the lack of nuclear weapons by all parties. Rivalries and alliances will form compound this problem, World War One being the prime example of this.
The third and final level is the individual level. You know this as crime. From organized crime to local thugs trying to make a quick buck. This can also take the form of bullying, the ruining of reputations etc. The costs are extremely low, the barriers are low, and the rewards are high given the stakes. Opportunity is quite high especially because nation-states have a monopoly on violence; with the propensity to disarm their populations. While nonviolent methods of removing people with social media have now become the norm. Appropriating its own term online “Scalping”.
With technology, the costs of violence are going down. What is the cost of opening a social media account, zero. Social media “scalping” is just the beginning. With the advent of technologies such as 3D printing and drones cost will continue to plummet. While the immediate jump will be into printing firearms which is currently happening. Many do not see further down the path. 3D printing chemicals, compounds even biology is possible. Anyone with a future 3D printer could print a new heart and their medication. Or they could print the black plague and bomb parts.
Drones are lowering the cost of reconnaissance and violence. The most well known are the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and the Predator-style drones. However, both of these are still expensive. Civilian drones are now becoming more capable and can be easily modified into weapons. Adding explosives or a bioweapon to a drone is already in its early stages. Yet this is not the most radical shift in the logic of violence.
The Logic of Violence: 4th Generation Warfare, and the Cyber War.
The cost and access to violence are now becoming so low terrorism will skyrocket, this is the logic of violence. Terrorism is a major issue for countries because there is nothing physical to retaliate against. Its warriors wear no uniform because terrorism is a weaponized idea. It can lurk dormant for years regenerating after all of its hosts have been destroyed. Yet even this futuristic view of the world does not even factor in the cyber war and the logic of violence.
Memetics is the new front of the cyber war and it follows the same logic of violence. Memes will be the new weapons of war, weaponizing propaganda into unfathomable levels. This is the future of the war on social media. Memetics has the ability to shape hearts and minds. Reputation and legacy is everything. It doesn’t need to be true people just need to believe it. This is the power of memetics, the ability to make people believe and disbelieve anything.
If you don’t believe this possible think about social media now. It has become an echo chamber for your beliefs unless you actively curate your experience. An actor large or small could hijack this chamber and tailor any message specifically to you, products, politics, the environment, religion, technology etc. The list goes on.
The individual level will be the culmination of all of forces with the logic of violence. As it has and will continue to be the easiest, convenient and cost-effective way to wage war. Would you rather attack an institution or the individual leading that institution? Multiple this across every group, company, organization and government and you can see why this is so effective.
An individual with some malevolence, a laptop and 3D printer can now do unfathomable damage. The untold power and destruction will forever change the nature of war.
The Individual and the Future:
The individual in this new era will be the target and the operative. A person could single-handedly wage war upon an entire system, government or group if competent enough. In fact, a “group” could rise that could be a mask for a single individual. The recent attacks of “Lone Wolves” is just the beginning.
Research is just a click away with social media. Single individual assassinations will be the norm. As violence becomes cheaper and more accessible. If one does want to be so blunt the individual can be targeted with a memetic campaign forcing them to perform tasks, change beliefs, indoctrinate them or commit suicide.
As Scott Adam’s suggested in his book: The Religion War, large public events, and gatherings will be banned. As security will become so nonexistent it will force it’s disbanding. While defensive measures for weapons, such as jamming, holograms, doubles, etc. exist; they are woefully inadequate. Weapons have always progressed faster than defensive technology. This is no different.
Now, what happens if we combine all three? Social media, 3D printing, and drones? Well, you get a zero cost way of gathering and spreading information. A low-cost way of making weapons and materials, and a low-cost way of distributing them. You could even get plans off of social media 3D print them and your drone to distribute them. The result is dramatized below:
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
If you liked this post be sure to rate it, and continue the conversation by following me on Twitter.
