Of course you are at least partially right, especially when you to stupidity of mission planners, and lack of criticism from the pilots. Why do I get the impression they are trained to shut up and obey ? The same “shut up and obey” occured when the F-22 had major security issues.
I however see overconfidence in a technique that had reached its limits. Knowing when a fighter takes off, how fast it flies, what route it usually takes should not matter if stealth were really stealth. It is not, unfortunately. This was and still is guilty arrogance.