Deal to the Left

The success of the Scottish Conservatives is understandably, dominating the early coverage of the Scottish Parliament elections so far. This coupled with the failure of the SNP to gain an outright majority has led to some instant reaction suggesting that this could be the most right wing Scottish Parliament there has ever been.

The SNP are a minority Government. This means they are going to need votes to pass a budget, in the same way they did during 2007–2011. We need to remember however, that we’re not in Kansas anymore, Toto. This is post indy ref Scottish politics. This is the Scottish politics of polarised Ulsterisation. This is Max Rockatanksy Scottish politics brought to you by George Miller. Theoretically, John Swinney has a multitude of options, in practice minority government is likely to be harder than before.

I’ve seen initial suggestions that the SNP could deal with the Tories on budgets. I cannot see how this is politically feasible. After the SNP crucified Scottish Labour for campaigning with the Tories during the independence referendum, there would be huge political risk in relying on Tory support. The ‘standing shoulder to shoulder’ line of rhetorical attack which has contributed to the evisceration of Scottish Labour would be turned on the SNP. The SNP striking a deal with the Tories on income tax in 2016, just isn’t the same as Annabel Goldie getting some extra police officers in pre indy-ref days.

The SNP leadership surely know this. They’d be harangued by Scottish Labour relentlessly. I can see the ‘Tartan Tories’ photoshops and hasthtags already. I cannot think that the SNP would expose such fertile political territory for the re-growth of Scottish Labour. Furthermore, I think the left leaning parts of the SNP membership can tolerate a centrist administration, I don’t think they could tolerate explicitly centre right dealings on tax with Ruth Davidson.

Moreover, this would be politically difficult from the perspective of the Scottish Conservatives. Tory success has come from three planks that I can see. Brand Ruth, Unionism on steroids, and the assertion that they would provide ‘strong opposition.’ Strong oppositions don’t influence, negotiate on and amend Government budgets. They oppose them. If they appear too cosy with the SNP Government they risk compromising the ‘strong opposition’ message they have worked so hard to develop.

So, can the SNP deal with Labour? Mega lolz. No.

Can they deal with the Lib Dems? I think this is possible, but less likely. The objections to a budget deal do not strike me as readily apparent as with some other parties, but it still means walking on the constitutional hairline fracture of Scottish politics. If there is a deal between the SNP and the Lib Dems, it will be on social democratic, not orange book liberal grounds. The Scottish Liberal Democrats will try and distance themselves from memories of the UK Coalition. Although it didn’t get much coverage, it should be remembered that the Lib Dems actually proposed increasing income tax rates by 1p across all bands to raise more than £500m each year to invest in education.

So, here is what I think will happen. I think the Scottish Greens are going to have a pivotal and hugely influential role in this Parliament. In the first year or two of this Parliament, it will be Scottish Green votes that will pass SNP budgets. The residual dynamics of the Yes movement make this the most obvious route forward. These votes won’t support a drift by the SNP to the right.

The Scottish Greens as a party strike me as an interesting combination of traditional environmentalism, social liberalism, and solidly left leaning socio-economics. Their political capital will be limited however, and in deciding their red lines, we will have a fascinating insight into what they really stand for. My hunch is that we will not be seeing any fracking in Scotland any time soon, and there might be some awkward conversations with some Senior Executives and Scottish Government Ministers soon.

We no longer have a majority SNP Government able to govern from the centre. It is going to have make deals to get its budgets through, and the presence of 31 Scottish Conservative MSPs, doesn’t change the fact that most natural terrain for these next steps are on centre-left political terrain.