The Kyrie-IT trade is bad news for the Toronto Raptors

Last week, Kyrie Irving, the 25-year-old point guard who hit the game winning shot in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals, was traded for Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic and an unprotected Brooklyn 1st. Rarely do teams receive proper value in return for their superstars, just ask the Kings, but Cleveland somehow managed to pull it off. In trading Kyrie, they get one the NBA’s best and most-clutch scorers in Thomas, while also bolstering their aging bench and preparing for the post-LeBron future. The Cavs remain contenders this season and place themselves in a good position to land a blue-chip prospect in what should be a loaded 2018 lottery. Considering the lottery luck Cleveland has had since the turn of the century, that’s a great position for the team to be in.
Meanwhile in New England, the Celtics improve measurably. Losing Isaiah might be emotional for Boston’s fans, but it will make for a markedly better product on the court. Kyrie Irving is arguably better than IT, with superior scoring skills and the tools to be a plus defender if motivated (granted, that’s a BIG if). Throw in the coaching genius of Brad Stevens and a compliant and competent supporting cast made up of fringe All-Stars (Horford, Hayward), reliable grinders (Smart, Morris) and hungry up-and-comers (Brown, Tatum) and, suddenly, the Celtics are a good bet to repeat as the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference.
At the very least, it’s going to at least make for an incredible season opener.
So, what does all this mean for the Raptors? In short, it’s bad. Very, very bad.
During the 2016–17 NBA season the Raptors beat the Celtics in three out of their four meetings, and there’s a pretty compelling argument to be made that they would have made it back to the Eastern Conference Finals had LeBron and Co. pulled their finger out and kept the one-seed out of Boston’s grasp. That regular season dominance came, in large part, from their exploiting IT’s lack of defensive ability. Take the Raptors’ 114–106 win over the Celtics on January 10. DeRozan and Lowry took over that game, with DeMar putting up a 41-point double-double and Kyle matching with 24 on 83% shooting from three. But Toronto’s dynamic duo, and the rest of the team, did a lot of their damage by taking advantage of the largest (smallest?) chink in Boston’s defensive armour: Isaiah Thomas.
Have a look at the clip below. Kyle Lowry jumps the pass and initiates the fast break, driving up the court against his diminutive counterpart and Raptors hero Amir Johnson. Then, upon seeing Johnson and IT standing in his way, he flicks the ball over his shoulder to a trailing DeMarre Carrol, who drills the transition three in Isaiah’s face. He makes a good recovery on the closeout by managing to fight past the always savvy Lowry, but his height means that even Carrol, who’s vertical is a good 3 inches, can shoot over him, unimpeded. That’s the sad story of Isaiah Thomas; a hard-worker whose physical restrictions just won’t let him be great. It’s the reason he’s been traded off every team he’s ever been on, no matter how much he exceeds expectations.
Later in the game the Raptors go back to targeting Thomas, this time choosing DeRozan to do the damage. DeMar brings the ball up the court and initiates the set, a post-up isolation, against Thomas while the rest of the team clears out around the perimeter and baseline. DeRozan hits the smaller defender in the chest, before pulling up and hitting the elbow jimmy. You almost feel bad for IT when you see DeMar pull up over him, since he just can’t get up there to contest that shot. Watch the clip below and you’ll see what I’m talking about.
The advanced stats back up the eye-test. When Isaiah faced up against the Raps he posted a defensive rating of 121, per basketball-reference, 7 points worse than his already bad 114 rating for the season. With Isaiah now out of the picture, the Celtics suddenly gain a guy who not only posts a 6-point improvement in d-rating against the Raptors, but whose scoring ability improves against the team. In 3 meetings against the Raps, Kyrie posted a defensive rating of 115 while upping both his FG% and 3FG%. Not only that, but we witnessed first-hand four games in which Kyrie eviscerated the Raptors on the way to a EC Semi’s sweep.
Of course, Kyrie’s splits drop markedly when LeBron is on the floor and detractors will be quick to say that the four-time MVP was always key to Kyrie’s success. But don’t discount the wingman Kyrie will be receiving in Boston: Brad Stevens. Stevens made a Celtics team whose best player was Isaiah Thomas one of the stingiest defensive squads in the NBA, and now has exchanged his biggest defensive liability for Kyrie Irving to go along with free-agent addition Gordon Hayward and rookie Jayson Tatum. The Raptors lose their hole though which to attack the Celtics while also having to worry about a new and improved scoring roster that will feast on guys like DeMar, JV and even Ibaka if they go small.
And the Cavs? LeBron is still LeBron, and they fix their chemistry issues while adding dynamic scoring and bench depth to their roster. We didn’t stand a chance against the Cavs team of yesteryear, and it stands to reason that a deeper, better rested one will cause us even more headaches this year.
I had high hopes following the sweep last year that we would be able to claw our way back into the Conference Finals. “If we had just played the Celtics”, I kept telling myself. I’d convinced myself that the gap between us and them was bridgeable, that the Eastern Conference was winnable with blood, sweat and a bit of luck. But after this trade? That gap has become a chasm.
