It probably makes sense to explain that phenomenon using this analogy but truth be told things won’t play out that way. The numbers simply don’t add up. Sentiments & fear mongering have been at the center of every single election in every single country. Before Syria, ISIS and Paris/Brussels/Orlando/Nice, there was Iraq and Afghanistan and Al-Qaeda and Taliban. NONE of this rhetoric is new. Now to specifics: 1. going by numbers, there are more registered democrats than there are republicans. In spite of this, the election is always decided by those who identify as Independents (people who actually make the real “lesser evil” analysis and choice). Hillary is polling much better with them (and in battleground states) than Trump. You don’t need to convince a Democrat to vote for Hillary today. The vast majority would. Despite a bitter primary, Democrats are significantly more united than Republicans who are in open rebellion. Which means it’s actually Republicans who will sit out the election 3. Democrats typically always turn out in higher numbers in Presidential election years. These are all facts.

So let’s even put aside another fact that decency, candidate/party profile and personal history put Hillary in a much better stead than Trump, and that the demographic Democratic coalitions of 2008 and 2012 are not only still in place but have expanded (even aided by Trump’s constant bashing of entire groups of minorities), Trump is just a fraud and will be defeated in a LANDSLIDE. Even real conservative Republicans are hoping it happens so they can get their party back and get to rebuilding it. Apologies for the long post but your theory will well and truly be debunked come November.