NBA 2018–2019 Season Preview

After months and months of waiting, the NBA season is finally upon us. This Tuesday, the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics kick off the first game of the year, followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder taking on the reigning champions (boo! hiss!), the Golden State Warriors. 2K and tweets about Jimmy Butler have held me over well enough, but it’s about time the Real Thing started.

Unlike my NHL preview, I’m going to rank the Conference standings (seriously, who really cares about the Miami Heat winning their division when they’re gonna be, like, the 7 seed probably?) before getting into playoff predictions. Unlike various other NBA previews, I’m just gonna keep it simple. Because I care so much about all of you reading. Yeah.

East

*playoff team

1. Boston Celtics*: Boston’s stupid deep when you look at their roster. This team returns pretty much everyone from last year, and it’s basically like they’re adding Gordon Hayward after that gruesome leg injury ended his first year with the Celtics six minutes in. Kyrie Irving is obviously the focal point here. His health has always been an issue, but my god is he sensational when he’s on the court. Similarly to Golden State, the regular season is just a formality for the Celtics. It’s all about getting to the playoffs with their key players intact.
2. Philadelphia 76ers*: My spiciest hot take is that Ben Simmons is just Tall Rajon Rondo, and I don’t truly believe that. This team’s 11th man is Zhaire Smith, so they aren’t longing for depth. I love the Wilson Chandler signing as well, he’ll be a steady veteran presence along with Amir Johnson and the returning JJ Redick. Right now it’s Boston, Philly and then everyone else. A guy to watch will be Robert Covington, who was a liability in the playoffs last year but is capable of being a top-40 player.
3. Indiana Pacers*: All they did was lose Lance Stephenson (already addition by subtraction) and add Tyreke Evans, Kyle O’Quinn and Doug McDermot. And draft Aaron Holiday. And watch Victor Oladipo become even more muscular. This team is wildly underrated, and with the Central division wide open they could make some serious noise. I have them over Toronto because Toronto’s rookie coach has a tall task of balancing team chemistry. Nate McMillan is as steady of a coach as there is. Look for Myles Turner to break out and be a potential all-star this year.
4. Toronto Raptors*: The talent is obvious, it’s just a matter of how it’s all going to work. It’s silly to say that DeMar DeRozan is a better player than Kawhi Leonard, but I’ll tentatively buy DeRozan being more of a sure thing. You know what you’re getting with DeMar, whereas Kawhi’s new chapter with the Raptors has a hundred different possibilities. Kawhi doesn’t really want to play for Toronto, I think that’s plain. Kyle Lowry isn’t happy about how things went down with DeRozan, I think that’s VERY plain. Throw in Nick Nurse as a first year head coach, and I get Billy-Donovan-in-over-his-head vibes immediately. Also, how is Serge Ibaka still starting in the NBA? Toronto’s definitely a playoff team, but I’m predicting another early exit and Kawhi being a one-and-done. What happens next?
5. Miami Heat*: Okay, so this is kind of under the pretense that Jimmy Butler might be coming to town. But even if that doesn’t happen, Miami has a quality team. Detroit and Milwaukee are the sexier picks because they have considerably more star power, and I totally get that. Milwaukee I think is actually a better team than Miami. But the Southeast division might be historically bad this year. The Heat can feast on inferior opponents 16 times (compared to Milwaukee’s 14 times against Atlanta/Washington/Orlando/Charlotte) and stuff the win column by doing so. If they can somehow, some way get Hassan Whiteside back to his old self, Miami becomes formidable again down low. Dwyane Wade won’t get a championship in his final year, but a playoff series win isn’t out of the question.
6. Milwaukee Bucks*: They’ve looked great in the pre-season, they made a major coaching upgrade with Mike Budenholzer, and they have a fucking cheat code as their best player. After Giannis depth remains an issue, however. Eric Bledsoe is a middling starting point guard, and if Khris Middleton’s shot isn’t falling then points might be hard to come by outside of Giannis. Brook Lopez/John Henson are okay-ish at center, but unless the Bucks get a breakout from someone like Thon Maker or rookie Donte DiVincenzo, they’re going to need Giannis to carry the team on his back. Again. Like always. Which sucks for them, but could result in an MVP season from the Greek Freak, which is great for us.
7. Detroit Pistons*: Seventh might be a little low for Detroit, but I think Pistons fans will take it after the disastrous Van Gundy experiment. They haven’t finished higher than 8th in the East since 07–08 when they made the Conference Finals. Last year’s hot start was reason for optimism, but a rash of injuries kept them out of the playoffs once again, even with the addition of Blake Griffin. New coach Dwane Casey will need heavy production from Griffin and Andre Drummond to hide the sus backcourt of Reggies Jackson and Bullock.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers*: I KNOW, I KNOW. The narrative surrounding the Cavs last year was LeBron dragging a bunch of corpses to the NBA Finals, and that’s not necessarily incorrect. The team looked bad, and would I be shocked if this outfit finished in the bottom-five of the league this year? No! No, I wouldn’t. But Kevin Love is still an all-star player when healthy, Tristan Thompson can be an everyday starter (don’t laugh), and Collin Sexton is going to be a problem in between the inevitable intermittent rookie hiccups. Ty Lue’s in for a very interesting year. We saw Erik Spoelstra establish himself as an honest-to-god coach after LeBron left Miami, let’s see if Lue can shake off the perception of just being LeBron’s straw man in Cleveland.
9. Orlando Magic: LeBron leaving the Cavs was said to have seismic consequences, so how about this one? Orlando tanked their asses off last year and saw superfreak Mohamed Bamba fall into their laps in the draft. Add him to a mix of equally freaky Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and the steady Nikola Vucevic, and suddenly the Magic have a pretty solid frontcourt. Granted, their point guards are still D.J. Augustin and Jerian Grant, so catapulting this team into playoff contention is still pretty lofty. But they have genuine untapped talent (especially in Gordon and Isaac) that has a better chance of being, uhh, tapped(?) by Steve Clifford than it did by that knob Frank Vogel.
10. Brooklyn Nets: What to make of the Nets? Their roster on paper is honestly not that bad. Spencer Dinwiddie is my Sixth Man favorite, and D’Angelo Russell can score in flurries when healthy. I like RHJ as a versatile forward, and I love Jarrett Allen’s tenacity and hair. Even their coach, Kenny Atkinson, is decent. So why 10th behind sad-sacks like the Cavs and Magic? The Nets were 1–15 against their division last year, including 0–4 against the Knicks. They also play at Indiana, at New Orleans, Golden State, Houston, Philadelphia, and Detroit twice within their first ten games of the season. They could be off to a rocky start, and for a team so used to losing it may be difficult to turn things around.
11. Washington Wizards: Washington could go 82–0 and things will still be delightfully chaotic. Swap Marcin for Gortat for Dwight Howard and this is essentially the same team as last year, which finished 8th in the conference. I think the wheels finally fall off this year. Someone important gets traded or badly injured in a locker room fight started by Austin Rivers, either or, and Scotty Brooks gets canned and the team starts over. EMBRACE THE DISCOURSE.
12. Chicago Bulls: The Bulls were actually a playoff team for me before Lauri Markkanen’s injury. It’s weird how Chicago went from a heralded defensive powerhouse under Tom Thibodeau to a team employing Jabari Parker and Zach LaVine. Wendell Carter Jr. could/should be special alongside Markkanen, but that’s looking too far into the future. The best thing the Bulls can do is play competitively for a few months before quasi-tanking again and getting Fred Hoiberg fired.
13. Atlanta Hawks: I’m glacially warming up to Trae Young as an NBA player (he’s entertaining, if anything). Having said that, the Hawks are still going to be a bad team this year, which I think they’re perfectly okay with. Kevin Huerter is an intriguing rookie that will get to work on his game without any spotlight on him, and John Collins will make leaps and bounds this year I think. Unless they go full on tank mode from Day 1 and/or have injury problems, I don’t think the Hawks are a bottom-3 NBA team. Definitely bottom-7 though.
14. New York Knicks: The Knicks do this thing where they flirt with playoff contention until around Christmastime, then literally everything goes wrong and they finish near the bottom of the standings. This year, I think they skip the decent start altogether and decide to shut down any attempt of a Kristaps Porzingis comeback. When he’s on the court, Porzingis has superstar potential. The problem is he’s always struggling with stamina and overall health problems. Kevin Knox is fun and exciting, and Enes Kanter playing in a David Fizdale system sounds wildly entertaining. I hope I’m wrong, because the league is better when the Knicks are good, but I just don’t see it happening.
15. Charlotte Hornets: From a talent standpoint, Charlotte isn’t that terrible. I’m putting them in last place thinking that Kemba Walker FINALLY gets traded this year, and well before the trade deadline at that. Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller are the least impressive big men pairing in the league. Miles Bridges won’t get enough minutes, somehow. Frank Kaminsky will tweet“#HimToo” or some shit and get cold-cocked by Reggie Bullock in a meaningless game in December and miss time. Malik Monk’s arms are gonna fall off. I don’t have much factual data to prove my hypothesis that Charlotte will finish dead last in the East, but that’s what I think happens.

West

*playoff team

1. Golden State Warriors*: What do you want me to say? Honestly.
2. Houston Rockets*: The Carmelo signing got some push back, but he’s actually a better fit in Houston than he ever was in OKC. In the regular season the Rockets run a breakneck offense, but they stuck with mucky iso-ball in the playoffs against the Warriors and it actually worked pretty well. Now, granted, it’ll probably be either Kevin Durant or Draymond Green that’s guarding Carmelo instead of Derrick Favors in that particular hypothetical, but. Marquese Chriss’ fresh start with Houston after a few volatile years in Phoenix is a story to watch.
3. Utah Jazz*: Utah is every snotty white kid’s favorite team that isn’t already a Warriors fan (myself included), so it’s fitting that they drafted Ted Cruz’s son Grayson Fucking Allen to back up budding superstar Donovan Mitchell. Allen’s jersey is definitely going to outsell Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, I’ll bet my life savings on it. Anyway, Utah’s deep from top to bottom. Thabo Sefalosha is like their 13th best player. As per usual, Gobert’s health will play a major role in how Utah finishes this year. The team is markedly better when the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is on the court.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder*: Paul George’s decision to stay in OKC surprised just about everyone. He’ll have to carry the load at the start of the season while Russell Westbrook recovers from knee surgery. Dennis Schroder will get big minutes at point in Russ’ place, but the Thunder will need to ratchet up defensively with Andre Roberson set to miss at least another two months after recovering from his own knee surgery. The team is talented enough to win in spite of Billy Donovan, but Utah has officially usurped them as top dog in the Northwest.
5. Los Angeles Lakers*: When LeBron first left Cleveland for Miami, you may remember the growing pains that elite Heat squad experienced at the beginning of the season. Keep in mind that was in 2010, so LeBron was 25, title-starved, and playing with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh also in their primes. Bron’s now 33, has three rings, and his best teammates can barely drink legally, and they play in a much tougher Western Conference. This team has all the tools to be great, but it’ll take time for chemistry to build.
6. Denver Nuggets*: The inverse to the Jazz, Denver scores at will while letting their opponents do the same. Nikola Jokic is probably the most gifted offensive big man in the league, but he plays defense like a sieve. They also gave up their two best defenders Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler, opening up minutes for guys like Trey Lyles, Torrey Craig, Tyler Lydon and Juan Hernangomez. I think Denver’s offensive firepower is enough to take them to the playoffs at the very least, but it’s difficult to see them winning a series.
7. Dallas Mavericks*: Dallas and Memphis had dismal seasons last year, but the silver lining was that both teams were riddled with injuries to several starters. Unlike Memphis, Dallas has a youth movement with Dennis Smith Jr., Luka Doncic and Harrison Barnes (still just 26-years-old, by the way). Dirk Nowitzki coming off the bench for a cool 15 points a game seems like the perfect role for the Hall of Famer at this point in his career, and a small-ball lineup of DSJ, Luka, Wes Matthews and Barnes complemented by DeAndre Jordan at center is actually pretty nasty. I give the Mavs much better odds to bounce back than the Grizz.
8. Los Angeles Clippers*: Getting rid of Jordan officially closed the door on Lob City. They obviously have their sights set on next year with the allure of signing Kawhi Leonard, but the Clips’ current roster might be a lot better than people think. Some combination of Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley, Milos Teodosic, Lou Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will work; Doc Rivers will figure out which one. Speaking of Doc, there will be no more nepotism at the guard spot with his dumbass kid being sent off to D.C. Tobias Harris is the best player you’ve never heard of, and Boban Marjanovic is the best per-36 minutes player ever. The West is wild, but I like the Clippers sneaking in this year.
9. New Orleans Pelicans: Losing DeMarcus Cousins to the despicable Warriors hurts, but Julius Randle is a capable replacement, and one that can actually play before mid-season. What concerns me is the Pels’ complete lack of effort to bolster their guard depth after not re-signing Rajon Rondo. Elfrid Payton couldn’t even hack it on the Suns, and that’s your backup point guard? Jrue’s great, but he can’t play 48 minutes. Hell, E’Twaun Moore is barely an NBA starter. This is a conference with Steph-Klay, Lillard-C.J., Rubio-Mitchell, Paul-Harden backcourts. Anthony Davis can put up 30–15–5 (which he might) and that won’t be enough.
10. San Antonio Spurs: Man, the Spurs sure have had a rough go of it lately. Losing Kawhi sucked, but it was almost liberating when it finally happened. Like ripping off a giant, cornrowed band-aid. Losing Manu Ginobli to retirement and Tony Parker to politics hurt, but that opened the door for young guys like Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker IV. So it seemed, until Walker had to have surgery and Dejounte Murray tore his ACL. Now something called “Bryn Forbes” will split time with Patty Mills at point with DeMar DeRozan adjusting to his new team.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves: Even if JimBut makes it to the start of the season, I didn’t have Minnesota finishing higher than 8th this year. Andrew Wiggins just flat out sucks at basketball. I’m sorry. That guy should be putting up 25–7–7 effortlessly and he doesn’t even come close. Take Butler off the roster, his 18–4–2 line marginally increases. Butler will be gone at some point this season, and Thibodeau’s next. Then probably KAT next year. Jeff Teague sucks too.
12. Sacramento Kings: By 2020 I think the Kings will be a playoff team. To say it’s been a slow rebuild is like saying Kevin Hart is in movies sometimes, but the young core of De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Marvin Bagley III and Harry Giles could be special. That’s especially good news for Bagley, who doesn’t have to be the best player on this team. They just need offense, something the Kings have been starved for since the early 2000s. Best case for them is to find a sucker for Willie Cauley-Stein and Zach Randolph, get some assets back for them and shove Bags and Giles into the starting lineup, similarly to the George Hill move to give Fox minutes thing they did last year.
13. Memphis Grizzlies: Even when healthy, Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are old and slow. I love Jaren Jackson Jr. and can’t wait to see him in action, but beyond that Memphis is unwatchable dreck. Them signing Kyle Anderson (who’s not a bad player at all, to be fair) is a fly landing on a pile of shit. It was so hilariously predictable. Also, J.B. Bickerstaff has not impressed as a head coach, so of course Memphis retains him. It’s like this team wants to move to Seattle.
14. Portland Trail Blazers: My hottest take. Portland got exposed by an inferior New Orleans team in the playoffs last year, and I think there’s a lasting effect to getting your brains squished in for four straight playoff games. This isn’t fair to Terry Stotts, who’s seemingly a fine head coach, but this team will be BAD this year. So bad that either Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum gets traded to a plucky team in the East (Milwaukee, maybe) and the team goes into rebuild mode. Jusuf Nurkic couldn’t stop Philip Seymour Hoffman in Along Came Polly.
15. Phoenix Suns: Oh, the Suns. Despite them being my pick for worst team in the NBA (again), I think they’re better than last year’s 22-win outfit. I’m thinking 25, maybe 26 wins this year. There’s major concern at point guard, where second round pick Elie Okobo is slated to start. Devin Booker is a phenomenal scorer and abominable defender at the same time. First overall pick DeAndre Ayton will put up good numbers that may be hollow. Mikal Bridges would’ve been such a good fit for the Sixers, but now he’s somehow in a timeshare with Trevor Ariza and TJ Warren. Again, definitely think they’ll be better than last year, but only marginally.

Playoff Predictions

East

Boston over Cleveland in 4

Philadelphia over Detroit in 6

Indiana over Milwaukee in 7

Miami over Toronto in 6

Boston over Miami in 5

Philadelphia over Indiana in 7

Boston over Philadelphia in 6

West

Golden State over LA Clippers in 4

Houston over Dallas in 5

Utah over Denver in 5

LA Lakers over Oklahoma City in 7

Golden State over LA Lakers in 6

Utah over Houston in 7

Golden State over Utah in 6

NBA Championship

Boston over Golden State in 7

Whaaaaaaat? Yeah, I mean it. I think Golden State loses, Kevin Durant gets blamed for letting Gordon Hayward hang a 30 on him, gets mad and bolts. Brad Stevens convinces Kyrie to stay, too.

Awards

Most Valuable Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Rookie of the Year: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

Sixth Man of the Year: Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets

Most Improved Player: De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics

Worst Team: Phoenix Suns