Tired: Ethereum in 2015. Wired: Smart contracts in 1994

Market Report: 30th July 2018 — Subscribe here

CRYPTO NOTE

The daily view from our desk

If there’s two surprises to reveal today, the bullish news is that the famous Harry Potter heroine, Hermione Granger, loves hockey, and even more bullish is Sir Mike Novogratz scored a slam dunk £102M ($134M) loss in Q1 2018. What a beautiful Monday indeed. On that note — were bullish on meditation. Shout out to CR for the YouTube mention!

THREE DAYS AGO

Tired: Trading performance since Friday. Wired: Enjoying the weekend.

This weekend was rather dull, with the total market cap jumping 4% on Friday afternoon — restoring average prices back to Thursday’s pre-ETF FUD levels — and barely moving since, making volatility retest all-time lows. This lack of action enabled bitcoin to close its weekly candle in what most consider to be a rather bullish setup.

As for now, the bears are still hiding under the carpet. From mild-looking fractals that predict we’ve hit the top of the current uptrend to more hysterical historical comparisons that anticipate the absolute bottom only by 2019, whose logic is more difficult to follow. We suggest waiting for tomorrow’s monthly close for more insights.

If you’re playing with alternative cryptoassets, watch out for extreme moves in projects with thin order books. Even popular ones, like the well-regarded District0x, are facing 100% price swings without any fundamental reason. Some more controversial altcoins like ZClassic — a polemic project famous for the shady Bitcoin Private fork — are back making ‘pumpish’ waves. Remember that forks are not free money and don’t fall for TV show hosts ‘shilling’ the projects they advise on mainstream media!

THREE YEARS AGO

Tired: Ethereum in 2015. Wired: Nick Szabo’s smart contracts in 1994.

Ethereum launched on the 30th of July, 2015. Twelve months after its crowdsale kicked off — in which its ether tokens were sold for as low as £0.22 ($0.29) — the genesis block of the “censorship-proof ‘world computer’ that anyone can program” was finally produced. What to make of of the original decentralised app platform that is still producing 1600x returns? Is it true that “there are no dumb questions” here?

Technically, ether’s price is at a crossroad. Some say not a bullish one. Against the dollar, it’s at the end of a month-long symmetrical triangle; and against BTC, it’s at the bottom of its year-long diagonal channel. Many are seeing strong support in these but some have a contrarian view of the channel breaking down and dragging altcoin prices with it. Remember bitcoin also failed to hold its equivalent channel earlier this March, as horizontal price levels are deemed more significant whenever price is in charted waters.

Fundamentally, Ethereum is in transition. It’s getting ready to launch interesting side-chain scaling solutions — from Plasma Cash, nicely explained here, to sharding, well introduced here — in order to be able to compete with the likes of Amazon Web Services (AWS). However, it’s also the testbed for “dangerous game theory” experiments, as the recently gone viral PoWH3D and FOMO3D games — or “ponzi schemes that are not a ponzi scheme” — have machiavellianly shown. Would it be silly to ask if Ethereum still has the “best ideas in blockchain tech”, like Nick Szabo, inventor of the smart contracts, claimed in 2014?

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

Filter the noise and stay ahead of the pack

▪ The Chamber of Digital Commerce is releasing its “Understanding Digital Tokens: Market Overviews & Guidelines for Policymakers & Practitioners” today at 12pm BST.

▪ The bitcoin ETF narrative is clearly having an impact on traders’ sentiment these days. Watch out for Louis Aboud-Hogben’s “inconvenient truth about bitcoin ETFs”.

▪ The rumours about Bitmain’s secret mining operations were disregarded by the mining giant last week. A Sia developer claims having evidence to support the gossip.

WHAT TO READ TODAY

An insight a day could give you more profits to play

▪ USV’s Fred Wilson is one of the most popular VCs in the cryptosphere. He believes the crypto market is still at “the installation phase” which has so “many high-quality projects”.

▪ Daniel Jeffries is one of the most popular independent writers in the blockosphere. He believes “we need open source now more than ever” and rightly explains why so.

▪ Nic Carter is “the only VC that has never read Sapiens”, although he now identifies as a “bitcoin mostimalist”. Here’s his great graphical analysis of what drives interest in Bitcoin.

FOUNDATIONAL TRIVIA

Because the building blocks of crypto needn’t be irrelevant

What’s the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)? In short, it’s the nerve centre of the Ethereum platform. It is the program that connects all the computers or nodes across the world and acts as the engine that drives the platform. That way it maintains the decentralised network.