Don’t Be A Sucker: A DFS Game Selection Story

For months now, I’ve been trying to figure out a proper way to contribute to the Daily Fantasy Sports community that I’ve watched grow exponentially over just a few years. I’ve been playing DFS since Week 11 of the 2014 NFL season, but I had previously been aware and cautious of the industry as I watched from afar. I can’t remember exactly why I pulled the trigger on that first deposit that random Sunday — banter in the WGL Madden League chat probably contributed — but I’m happy I did. Since I’ve started playing, I’ve watched numerous writers launch careers producing original DFS content, whether its touting players for the week or giving out tips to the community. While I do know some excellent touts in the industry and respect what they do, this was never something that intrigued me. Passing along pregame information such as starting lineups or injury news is about as far as I go. So how am I going to provide relevant information to DFS players without actually helping them build their lineups? As I continued to ask myself this question, yet another NYT DFS “hit-piece” gave me what I believed was a great opportunity to share information that I have gathered regarding game selection. Since then, the industry lost states such as Nevada, Texas, and New York, forcing contests to shrink nearly immediately. However, with football season right around the corner and New York set to return, it seems like a good time to dive back in.

Let me give a quick introduction to myself, the DFS player. I am what you would consider a profitable low stakes NFL and NBA only player who plays primarily on FanDuel and DraftKings. I tend to favor GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pool) type contests over cash games, which are multipliers (H2H, 50/50, Double Up) with a much higher win rate. As a result, my win rate is around 24%. I very rarely enter contests that cost over $25 per entry without a ticket, and I’ve never taken the opportunity to seriously mass enter any contest, not even the $1 ones. I don’t use any fancy algorithms or player projection models to select my players, nor do I pay a monthly subscription for a site to do the player research for me. In one word, my play style is casual. Based on these facts, if you had read any of the NYT’s articles relating to DFS experiences, you might assume that I am a losing player who is constantly feasted upon by the sharks and pros of the industry. As much as I’d like to say the reason that this isn’t true is because I’m so naturally knowledgeable about my two favorite sports, a big reason why is because of the games that I choose to play on a regular basis. Finding games with increased odds of cashing or that have a level entry playing field are key to enjoying this industry as a low stakes player.

On one hand, my conservative approach to DFS comes from the fear of losing. I hate to lose at anything, but DFS has a cruel way of eating away at your money and inflated ego. Wise words on the matter came from @TheEndIsNir, a hilarious DFS personality/contributor on Twitter, who once told me that grinding out games with small money is an endless battle, but to play what you can afford to lose. When you play like this, losing isn’t jeopardizing your well-being, so I took it to heart. During the NFL season, I have played about an average of $150 a week. Where I seek my advantage is in the game selection every night/week.

With the NFL season looming and the Week 1 contests on both major DFS sites being posted, I’m going to highlight a few of my favorite contests, both cash games and GPPs, for the casual player heading into the 2016 season.

Cash Games (H2H, 50/50s, Double Ups):

Let me start off by saying that while there is a great argument for why cash games are great to play, I have historically shied away from them for the most part and entirely in NFL. Cash games are generally used for a disciplined grind that I don’t really enjoy, especially the H2H option. However, I have become more open to Double Ups, granted that they are Single Entry contests. I prefer the SE/568 entry contests to increase odds of cashing and to stay out of the BIG double up contests that have 40k+ entries with 150 multi-entry limits per user because you tend to see tons of duplicated lineups/lineup trains in these types of contests. Again, plenty would argue that any cash game is worth entering, I personally don’t value the return enough to play the big contests. DraftKings also runs single entry double ups as well, generally at the $1 and $3 entry points, which may be even more enticing on a budget.

GPP contests (Guaranteed Prize Pool)

With the return of the NFL season comes HUGE GPP tournaments being offered by both of the major DFS sites. Some (see: strict cash game truthers) see entries into these contests as lottery tickets due to the amount of entries available, but the seemingly unreachable cash prize is what we play for right? So while I have my favorite GPP contests to enter on each site, slightly higher stakes contests such as the $25 entry NFL Sunday Million on FD or $20 entry Sunday Special on DK should certainly be considered if you have the means to enter. Hindsight is 20/20, but even sharper when you think about potential lost winnings after a great night.

Top 5 low stakes GPP contests on DraftKings:

• $5 Nickel 3 entry max — One of my favorite contests. Period. Not only are the odds of cashing (+$3) fairly high for a GPP (nearly 27% of entries cash), you are reasonably able to max multi enter this contest for $15 due to the entry restriction. With a $10K top prize in a contest with reasonably equal odds for every player, this is one of the best NFL contests offered.
• $3 Pylon Single Entry — Single Entry, less than 40K entries + reasonably good odds (20%) of cashing (2x entry) with a top prize of $10K. Example of why many push the Single Entry Movement.
• $3 Triple Option 3 entry max — Very similar to the Nickel, another must enter but top prize ($3k) is far less compared to the previous two contests.
• $1 Daily Dollar Single Entry — The ultimate budget contest, can turn $1 into $2k at the same odds as everyone else.
• $3 Millionaire Maker — Biggest contest of the day, can enter for $3 and win $1 million. In an industry where anything can happen, you’d be remiss to not enter. Also known as a skilled lottery ticket.

Top low stakes GPP contests on FanDuel:

• The Single Entry contests that FanDuel runs during the NFL season have always been very good, but Week 1 they seem to be a bit less enticing than normal. I’m hoping that these contests were created before the NY DFS bill was signed and that they’ll improve a bit, but as is, they are all still worth entering. One note: it’s interesting that the $2 Safety has the same first prize as it previously did with nearly 20k less entries, so I’m optimistic that the payout structure will improve as the season progresses.
• $25 Sunday Million is fairly self-explanatory ($200K to 1st), but I do also like the $5 Sunday Rush. 231K total entries + max entries: 150, but with a reasonable price point and cash rate (20%), the $100K first prize is well worth the risk.
• Week 1 has FanDuel running 2 different $2 entry NFL Snap contests with different payout structures. IMHO, there’s no question which structure makes more sense but don’t take my word for it. Check the cash rates and top prize and make the wise choice

• Note: Leagues on FD have been changed for Week 1 (250 player leagues aren’t offered Week 1), however they are still single entry contests. These are worth joining as competing with 99 other players for a set prize makes sense if you realize your best lineup probably isn’t in the top 5% of the entire country. On the other hand, if your lineup is in the top 5% of a big contest (250K entries), you’ll very likely beat out any collection of 100 entries. The $1, $2 and $5 single entry leagues are my favorites for a couple of reasons. Every time I’ve had a contending lineup in a major tourney, I’ve swept every 100-man league I entered, not to mention the times that a lineup barely cashing in a major tourney could do better in a smaller format. These leagues are a great way to make the most of a great lineup that you didn’t play in any high stakes games. This example from December 2015 may illustrate my point a bit better — note that this was prior to FanDuel changing these to 100 man leagues for Week 1 of the 2016 season.

• Single Entry multipliers are always worth a look, but the 558 entry quintuple ups are the best ones offered. Not only can you play as little as $2 in these for a great return, your odds are the same as your opponents.
• FanDuel has 3 entry contests similar to DraftKings such as the $3 Hail Mary, but in trying to duplicate this excellent idea, they capped the potential of these contests. These are still worth entering, but aren’t as enticing as the regular single entry tourneys offered.

#DontBeASucker Contest of Week 1

I beg you not to enter this contest, even if it's just $1. With very little upside, this is a prime example of the sites taking advantage of the inexperienced player.

I’ve found that having a contest entry game plan has allowed me to organize my entries and compete with the very best in the industry, but on my own level. Sticking to this game plan has allowed me to make the most out of a limited budget, while capitalizing on my very best lineups. Again, none of this is mind-blowing information, but I do think it’s important to continue fighting the narrative that the average skilled player can’t find DFS glory. Good luck to all playing this 2016 season; you can follow me via Twitter tilting my own picks at @LBoogieonSports.

UPDATE (11/2): NFL Midseason + NBA

Since I put together this short article on NFL DFS game selection, the landscape of the industry has changed quite a bit. Mainly, a merger between the two major powers seems to be inevitable and the contests offered have been severely depressed since the massive overlay in week 1 of the season. All of the contests mentioned prior still exist, but the payout structures are mostly different, so its critical to continue to educate yourself on each contest before entering. For example, the great 3 entry max $5 NFL Nickel still runs weekly on DraftKings, but its 10x smaller (4,705 entries/20k total prizes compared to 47,058/200k total prizes in week 1). I think its important that these changes are highlighted, although I certainly wouldn’t let it discourage you from continuing to enter these contests if you’ve gotten into a weekly routine. The idea that single entry + three entry max tourneys are the way to go for the low stakes player hasn’t changed, but the maximum payouts have. Contests on FanDuel have also gotten a bit smaller, but not as drastically as on DraftKings. With that said, the $1 3 entry max Singleback is one weekly GPP on DK that wasn’t previously mentioned, but is a weekly must enter for myself.

With the first week of the NBA season quickly passing by, it seems that we have a good idea of the daily NBA DFS games being offered by FanDuel and Draftkings. Similar to NFL, there are giant GPP contests with huge first place prizes, but the key is finding edge in contest selection. After one week, the guaranteed prize pools for these contests has fluctuated based on the day of the week/number of games being played on the main slate, but there are a few contests on both sites that I want to highlight, as I will be entering nearly every single day. Please note that I do typically enter the $500k type GPPs on both sites, but also treat them as “skilled lottery tickets”.

Part of my reasoning behind entering FanDuel’s $1 NBA Swat every day is that all three entries can be covered for as little as $1 apiece in their 100 man leagues that I enjoy so much. In NBA, these leagues are 3 entry max, which matches up perfectly with the daily Swat. Despite the allure of the big GPP, its good to step back and put in perspective just how unlikely it may be to win these contests even with a superb lineup. Below is an early season example of how a lineup of mine in the top 1% of the night returned less value in the big (low cost) GPP of the day than it did in 100 player leagues. Potenitally the same $4 used to enter the large GPP contest of the day could’ve returned 5x more cash. Its obviously not a guarantee to win every single 100 player league with a top lineup like this, but in my experience, it generally works out that way. Just another reason why the 3 entry Swat + 3 entry 100 man leagues are my go-to low stakes contests for this NBA DFS season.