Syrian Refugees in Neighboring Countries: A Complex Predicament with No Immediate Solution
In a blunt and unembellished statement: there is no foreseeable solution to the issue of Syrian refugees in neighboring countries, not even in the medium term. The refugee crisis, akin to the issues of detainees, abductees, and forcibly disappeared persons, constitutes a core aspect of the escalating Syrian crisis. This is undeniably a human rights issue, concerning people living in camps fit only for magazine and newspaper photos.
The matter is also a humanitarian one, affecting generations born and raised in places devoid of education and healthcare. However, politics override all these considerations.
The decision for voluntary, dignified, and safe return is ultimately a political one, despite its human rights and humanitarian dimensions. I assert that the political decision has not been made yet, nor does it appear likely to be made soon. Why? Because we must carefully examine the political realities.
Syrian Authority’s Perspective
Firstly, what interest does the Syrian authority have in the return of millions of refugees? How can it facilitate the return of 1–1.5 million refugees from Lebanon, when it sees this as a political, social, and economic threat/challenge? The majority of refugees hail from communities that posed political, if not military, challenges to the Syrian regime, implying that many (if not most) of the returnees carry an “opposition” legacy that the Damascus regime cannot handle.
Additionally, how will the Syrian government cope with the economic burden of the return, while already struggling with the needs of those in its controlled areas, with an economy groaning under corruption and the “Caesar Act” sanctions?
Furthermore, refugees will return to destroyed homes or homes occupied by others. How will the authorities manage potential social tensions when the old residents clash with the new ones? We are talking about communities with divergent identities, unfamiliar with each other. Thus, it is likely that the Syrian regime neither wants nor can facilitate the return.
Regional and International Dynamics
There is no talk of the safe, dignified, and voluntary return of refugees without a political agreement at both the regional and Syrian levels.
Regionally, the situation is more complicated. The presence of Syrians in Turkey is troubling for Ankara. It is an economic and social challenge, exacerbating existing tensions. The distribution of millions of Syrians along its southern borders implies an increase in the Arab minority over the years, intensifying social and identity-based tensions.
However, Ankara realizes that returning refugees to opposition-controlled areas is impossible, given the inability of the infrastructure there to accommodate millions, which could lead to potential explosions in these areas, inevitably impacting Turkey. Ankara certainly desires a stable Arab belt on its southern borders, not a ticking time bomb.
Iran is concerned about the refugees in Lebanon and the potential demographic changes that could threaten its key ally (“Hezbollah”) if Syrians were resettled there, alongside the chronic Palestinian refugee crisis. But it also understands that their return poses a significant challenge to its ally in Damascus, imposing political and economic burdens that it cannot bear now.
The Arab countries, unlike Iran, recognize that the presence of Syrians in Lebanon and Turkey is a crisis for their regional competitors. However, their presence in Jordan does not pose a significant issue, as Syrian refugees in Jordan are an important economic source, a demographic counterbalance to the Palestinians, and a social model similar to Jordan’s. Perhaps the Arab states could leverage their financial power to push for actual returns, but do they want to?
Finally, Lebanon strongly desires the return of refugees. This is a common desire among all political factions without exception. However, Lebanon and all its political factions are incapable of effectuating this return, making Lebanon the most affected and the most desirous of refugee return, yet the weakest player in the scene.
European Union’s Role
Internationally, the European Union appears the most interested compared to Russia, the United States, and China, and its interest is likely to increase following recent election results that saw a significant rise in the right-wing, threatening the very idea of the European Union. However, the EU needs political leverage to persuade the Syrian regime to facilitate refugee return, a leverage it currently lacks and seems unlikely to acquire soon, especially for France and Germany, which have created a reality preventing them from speaking to Damascus without a political solution that preserves their dignity, in addition to the legal obstacles related to the “Caesar Act” and general sanctions.
Path Forward
Therefore, stakeholders in the refugee issue either want and cannot, or can and do not want, or neither want nor can. So, what can be done?
The work begins, in my view, with accepting that thinking about the refugee issue in isolation from other issues such as economic sanctions, detainees, regional agreements, and Syrian-Syrian dialogue is futile. It is impossible to find a radical solution to the refugee issue without a meaningful political solution.
However, this does not mean that small, localized solutions are impossible, whether to improve the living conditions of refugees in host countries, enhance the conditions for return, or provide support to host countries to help improve their living conditions.
Moreover, the lack of a visible political solution does not mean that dialogue among all parties concerning refugees (including the regime in Damascus and de facto authorities in other areas) should not occur.
Refugees and detainees are victims of a war that has not ended, even if military operations have calmed! There can be no talk of safe, dignified, and voluntary return without a political agreement at both the regional and Syrian levels!
Meanwhile, the clamour here and there often appears as exploiting the lives of refugees who seek a decent life but cannot find a way to it, refugees unwanted by anyone, including the sea!
About
This article was originally written by Zedoun Alzoubi in Arabic for Awan Magazine. It is available at LUGARIT website in both English and Arabic. Link >
Publishing Date: 25 June 2024
