Is an upcoming yuan devaluation the reason for Bitcoin ban?
The writings are on the wall.
So have the People Bank of China (PBOC) just spent the last 8 months shaking out yuan speculators in the midst of a US dollar weakness?
A quick peek in USDCNH shows that we’re sitting on a trend line right now that I’ve drawn since 2016. The wick down and V bottom also further validates that trendline.
things are about to change it seems.
Let’s take a look at the daily chart of the US dollar:
We’re now nearing the bottom of the megaphone range. Just as the public (CNBC, bloomberg) is starting to be bearish on the US dollar, the trend is starting to change.
What about the EURUSD?
1.18 is the multi year resistance, along with a gap fill recently. There’s also another gap further down at 1.08 range, and the fact that Mario Draghi says he doesnt want to see EURUSD above 1.2.
Do you see how the stars are aligning here? Major markets could be reversing : BTC, USD, CNY, the chinese stock market, EUR
It could be the fact that PBOC is anticipating a messy situation like 2016 where yuan collapses, chinese stock market dumps.
They’re preparing to prevent a possible outflow of funds overseas. Bitcoin is the first place they want to look at. I’d doubt PBOC wants the same narrative to be circulating around too. “Long Bitcoin because the yuan devalues!”
How can I profit from it?
- Long Dollar
- Short Yuan
- Short Chinese market
- Short Euro
- Long gold/silver
- Long bitcoin of course ;) “yuan is devaluing! currency outflow”
See the opportunities in the broad market now that PBOC have given you hints of their intention with regards to the yuan? :)
Have fun trading!