As we come to the end of Q3 we can start to reflect on what has been a strange summer indeed. Usually towards the end of a bear market, trading volume and liquidity reaches a bottom over summer and its really not worth trading — most traders go and “ touch grass “ and funds down tools for the boats of the South of France. This year was different — we saw a huge rise in onchain activity ( eg assets not listed on major exchanges ), and random tokens launching and doing many times multiples in a short period of time — $PEPE being a prime example, which did a 74000x return from the first point of being able to buy it.
This surprised us to begin with — we had expected and planned for the shift to come in Q2 2024, but it seems that FTX and Celsius’ failure along with the SEC’s and FCA’s actions against the major CEXs, market makers and funds over the last 12 months have had a real impact.
The core of Launchpad proposition is that the next cycle is on chain — people are tired of random individuals becoming rich from insider trading , market manipulation and other nefarious activities. This has only accelerated. So we’ve dedicated more of our time to providing our Launchpadders with access to market leading alpha. Over August and September we have shared 139 trades. Of these 29 have returned 400% or more , 10 700% or more and even one 1000% or more trade . This is a very small part of what our full platform will offer. Our alpha group is open to all for a very limited amount of time as we build the platform . You can access here.
So — what’s next to come in the market
Lets start with $BTC . Yesterday it was announced that Michael Saylor and his Microstrategy group had acquired 5445 BTC at an average price of $27053 . Which likely means they were the TWAP buyer through the $26500-$27500 pump. This accounts for around 80% of the volume, and clearly negates the view of any market demand for $BTC.
It is likely now that $BTC stays in the $24800-$26800 4h range until any further ETF updates ( which are next released in October ) . So focus will be on trading this range, sizing up heavily at the extremes , with tight stops if we break up or down. Currently short from $26400.
Next — $ETH . We had hoped we would get a small pump from $1565 to $1650 , with the plan to short there. Volume however decreased heavily around $1600, so we have closed our long and shorted there. Resistance looks pretty strong now through the $1600–1620 range.
$LINK — we sadly exited out very well placed long at $7.18. With the major Link conference taking place on October 2nd-3rd we will look to short around these dates. Any major dip before then we will look to long around $7–7,20
$SOL — could not hold above $19.70 — looks like TWAP selling from the FTX case has started. Shorting any pumps is likely to be the best strategy.
From next week we will start introducing you to our charting methods . Sign up for a free tradingview account here https://www.tradingview.com/ so you can follow along and practice. Join our presale here — and our alpha signals group here
