The 2017 Local Elections in Wales
Michael Cole* and Laura McAllister
“There’s too much politics going on at the moment” so memorably said Brenda from Bristol when told of the Prime Minister’s decision to call a snap election on 8th June. Tomorrow’s local elections across the whole of Wales give us a first opportunity to see how many agree with Brenda, or whether the local elections might just benefit from the febrile and intense din of a media obsessing about another election in five weeks time.
Tomorrow, those of us that can be bothered will go to the polls to elect 1161 individuals to serve on the 22 Welsh councils. These elected public servants will then make critical decisions on schools, social care, children’s services, roads, refuse and libraries and decide by how much our council tax should rise in a future almost guaranteed to be characterised by further cuts to local government budgets.
Interestingly, these are elections actually postponed from last year to avoid clashing with the National Assembly election because, it was claimed, they risked being submerged in that political debate. Mmm….
Most are predicting that proximity to the General Election, on top of the prospect of a four visits to the polls within 13 months, will induce election fatigue even amongst the politically engaged, never mind those for whom enthusiasm for saturation politics is limited.
For the optimistically inclined, there is a glimmer of hope that the primacy of politics in the public mind right now might just boost turn out. However, willing that is one thing. Until a late flurry of media interest this week, the locals have been crowded out in Wales. More realistically, contest congestion risks lowering turnout from 2012 and that was already a pretty miserable 38.6%. This is especially disturbing here in Wales where councils are elected ‘on block’ and – by-elections aside – voters won’t have another opportunity to decide who runs their councils until 2022 as councillors have five-year terms, a year longer than elsewhere in the UK.
Still, every cloud etc. etc. The timing of the elections, little more than a month before the General Election, means that these elections will have a dual purpose. First and foremost of course, they will determine the political make-up of a critical tier of democracy, one theoretically closest to the citizen. But we will also be watching the results closely as they will also provide critical intelligence as to the political mood of the country at a time of unprecedented fluidity.
When the local election results are all in on Friday, they will, at the very least, help corroborate or challenge the findings of our colleague, Professor Roger Scully’s Wales Barometer poll which showed stunning and unprecedented support for the Welsh Conservatives.
So what’s at stake for the political parties? Labour’s problems are similar to those it faced at the Assembly Election and the forthcoming General Election, but even further magnified. It has to to defend a swathe of council seats won in 2012, after a superb poll showing for the party in Wales. In 2012, Labour registered a net gain of 235 councillors (a 70% increase) and added control of eight Welsh councils. It has 580 council seats to defend, as well as overall control in ten authorities and the leadership of two further councils (Flintshire and the Vale of Glamorgan). During a period of unprecedented unpopularity for the UK party, Welsh Labour will be hoping to replicate its clever Assembly election campaign last year that effectively maximised its support in key seats and exploited a dispersed and divided opposition. That said, it is very hard to see anything but a steep slip back for Labour’s representation in the council chambers. The Ant and Dec of local elections, Rallings and Thrasher from Plymouth University, think this will translate into three figure losses for Labour and significant gains for the Conservatives and somewhat less so for Plaid. Of course, extrapolating polling evidence into seats especially at local level is notoriously difficult, but Labour activists tell us that the polling reinforces what they are hearing on the door step around party discord and division and a general dislike of its leader, Jeremy Corbyn. We also think Rawlings and Thrasher’s predictions might under estimate the outcomes of an effective focus to Plaid’s campaigning.
Specifically, Labour’s majority control would appear to be under threat in Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Swansea, Rhonda Cynon Taf and Newport. Only in Torfaen, Merthyr Tydfil and Neath Port Talbot can Labour be confident of retaining overall control.
With over 170 councillors currently, Plaid Cymru is clearly established as the second party of local government and will be hoping to make gains from a relatively low base. Plaid saw poor results in 2012, with it losing control of Gwynedd and suffering a net loss of 35 councillors. This time, the recapture of Gwynedd is a realistic objective. Plaid will also be quietly confident of building on its leader, Leanne Wood’s stunning Assembly victory in the Rhondda last year. Whether that will be enough to make serious gains beyond its current nine councillors in Rhondda Cynon Taf and generate a domino effect of further gains across the valleys authorities remains to be seen. At the very least, Plaid gains are expected in Caerphilly, which it controlled the council from 1999 to 2004 and where it currently has 20 councillors.
The party also has hopes of re-gaining the Isle of Anglesey, where the main competition comes from independent candidates and where Plaid is only four seats short of a majority. There, Plaid council candidates might also hope to draw upon the energy and expectations generated by the forthcoming General Election contest in the highly unpredictable, three-way Ynys Mon marginal constituency, where former party leader and Deputy First Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones has been selected for Plaid.
The Welsh Conservatives enter these local contests on a wave of unrivalled optimism, buoyed in particular by polling suggesting that it is poised to make significant gains from Labour at the General Election. The party is looking to advance from the 105 seats it won in 2012, elections held during the mid-term of the UK coalition government so a net loss of 69 seats was not unexpected nor was the relinquishing of overall control in Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan. This time, the party has its eyes on regaining Monmouthshire, which is currently run with the Liberal Democrats and where a net gain of just three seats is required to secure overall control. The Conservatives also see the potential for gains in Swansea and the Vale of Glamorgan. It will also hope to progress in Newport, where it has recent history of governing with the Liberal Democrats, and where there is also a realistic chance of seat gains in the General Election. That, in itself, tells an interesting story, as normally local elections are second order opportunities to punish the party in control at first order level.
The Liberal Democrats start this contest from a woefully low base. Having lost almost half of its Welsh councillors in 2012 and its leadership of Cardiff Council, the Lib Dems are defending 75 seats (up from the 73 won in 2012), 37 of which are concentrated in only three authorities (Cardiff, Swansea and Powys). The party’s main hopes of progress rest in Cardiff and Swansea, which they governed as part of a coalition with independent councillors until 2012, and possibly in Ceredigion and Powys. The party should make gains but limited poll movement to date suggests that the local elections will not provide the Liberal Democrats with the convincing recovery narrative that it desperately needs.
Independents are still a substantive, if declining, presence in Welsh councils, although mostly concentrated in northern and rural councils such as Carmarthenshire, Conwy, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Pembrokeshire and Powys. In 2012, independent candidates won 337 seats, more than any party apart from Labour. This time, there are smatterings of new independent groupings in places like Bridgend which will test local party loyalties and exploit very specific local issues.
Despite its breakthrough in the 2016 Assembly elections and some success in local elections in England, UKIP currently has no councillors in Wales. Given the party’s widely publicised problems, including some highly public splits in Wales, victory in a First Past The Post system for any of its 80 candidates might be spun as “encouraging” for a party searching for a new purpose post EU referendum. The Greens, meanwhile, have little to defend but some potential for progress at least as it currently holds just one seat in Gwynedd and is fielding a healthy 78 candidates.
So, in contests occurring during the long shadow of a UK General Election, each party in Wales will be battling both to increase their actual local council presence, but simultaneously to produce harder evidence that its actual councillor return suggests positive things ahead in five weeks time. There is also the important sub-text of energising and enthusing party activists ahead of the next campaign. One former council leader told us that the Twitter pics tell their own story- tiny numbers out canvassing, and mostly elected MPs and AMs, rather confirming that parties are hollowed out organisations these days lacking the requisite foot soldiers to reach the local population.
For Labour, it would seem the best hope is damage limitation, trying to stem likely losses in order to show that Wales can be partly insulated from leadership travails at UK level. For the Liberal Democrats, the goal is simple- to show evidence of significant recovery from 2012, and thus also of potential General Election gains in Wales. The Conservatives will be hoping to harness the startling support levels it seems to be showing of the Westminster election to make substantial gains at local level.
For Plaid, the attention is on rebuilding its local government base, particularly in the valleys, at a crucial time for the party when it simply cannot afford another disappointing set of results.
*Guest contributor: Dr. Michael Cole is lecturer at the University of Liverpool Management School and an expert on local government.
