The First Presidential Debate Winner is….

Hillary Clinton. Why? Take a peak at the Mexican Peso’s strength today (day after the debate).

Based on the 538 blog, Trump’s polling numbers hit a low in mid-August estimating ~11% win probability. This corresponded with recent strength in the Mexican Peso. However, as Trump’s probability of winning has increased steadily to a present ~44% the Mexican Peso has weakened in parallel.

So, a rally in the Peso the day after the debate indicates a market view Hillary “won” the first debate. Turn off Twitter, Facebook, MSNBC, FOX News and watch Trump’s win probability relative to the moves in the Mexican Peso for more insightful election analysis.