The reason why Ethereum transaction volume has reached a lowest point
Last week we concluded that although Bitcoin will have a bottom price in January 2020, but the short term adjustment will be continued. Ur prediction stood largely correct. Before we move on to this week’s analysis, let’s look at the “Imagine 2030”, reported by Deutsche Bank: Since people will tend to doubt the sustainability of the Fiat-Currency, the public will have more demand in gold or Crypto-Currency. The inflation will come in the future, and there need to be something to control the inflation.
Daily trading volume — Bitcoin
The daily trading volume has kept the up-down movement during the last week, the top was 337K and the bottom was 278K, had a slight increase in the entire situation. It shows the core value of Bitcoin and is the fundamental support for Bitcoin price, indicates the trend of the increase in BTC price.
Daily trading volumes- Ethereum
The on-chain transaction has decreased rapidly as a result of being affected by Ethereum’s Istanbul Hard Fork. The top was only 681K and the bottom was only 440K.
Although the hard fork has been finished, but there were still more than half of the nodes are still using the old version of the Ethereum network. This inconsistency in network will prevent the data and block on the old fork from communicating with the new fork. The block transfer is therefore invalid due to this information gap, we then don’t need to be worried about the decreasing transaction volume.
Daily Average Hashrate
The performance of hashrate was well comparing with the previous weeks, the top was 104.2EH/s and the bottom was 101.8EH/s. Computing power (aka mining hashrate) is a key market metric as it illustrates the networks transaction demand. It has been on a steady rise since last year, which lays the foundation for the value of Bitcoin.
Active & New Address
The number of active & new address had an entire decrease last week, which was 659K on the top and 483K in the bottom.
USDT Premium Snapshot
USDT price hasn’t had a significant change during last week. The transaction volume increased in first half week and decreased in second half week, which implied the entry fund was limited.
Google Search Trend
Looking at the past-30 day google search trend for “Bitcoin” and related terms, we found that the global search for “BTC” has increased.
Fear & Greed Index (FGI)
FGI was 32, the fear sentiment has been mitigated. FGI looks at six different factors to score investor sentiment on a scale of zero to 100 — extreme fear to extreme greed respectively: market volatility (25%) + market momentum (25%) + social media trend (15%) + market survey (15%) + the ratio of Bitcoin in the market (10%) + Google Trend (10%).
Long/Short Position Ratio
The long/short position ratio is at 1, this equilibria has been kept for half week. Having a “long” position in security means that you own the security. Investors maintain “long” security positions in the expectation that the stock will rise in value in the future. The opposite of a “long” position is a “short’ position. A “short” position is generally the sale of the stock will decrease in value. In the market of contracts, the total positions of long and short are equal. For each long position, there is a short position. If the long/short position ratio is high, then it means that there were fewer people who go long than those go short. According to our experience, if the ratio is too high it is highly likely that we will see PBX or stocks nosedive.
The mainstream investor institutions are getting more interested in crypto market. According to the Bakkt, more than 1000 Bitcoin contracts have been traded with settled by using fiat-currency. Secondary market is still being under the adjustment, the nosedive may occur. We predict this trend will be kept until next March, all we need to do is to keep our BTC before the bull market.