There are 104 days left until the Bitcoin Halves
Jan 28 · 4 min read

Our last-week prediction about the increase to 9200USD stood as true. Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown will be on 12 May 2020, there are only 104 left until the Bitcoin Halving, how will it affect the bitcoin price? Let’s take a look by combing with the fundamental indexes.

Daily trading volume — Bitcoin

Source: BitInfoCharts

Bitcoin price went up and down during last week, the top was 330,000 and the bottom was 261,000. This data was keeping increase in a slow path since February 2018, it shows the core value of Bitcoin and is the fundamental support for Bitcoin price. The current transaction volume is relatively stable in keeping this increase as well.

Daily trading volume — Ethereum

Source: BitInfoCharts

Ethereum’s trading performance was not as strong as Bitcoin, the top was 698,000 and the newest was 429,000, this is also a new low and this needs us to take more pay more observation on it.

Daily Hashrate

Source: BitInfoCharts

Bitcoin hashrate was keeping at a high level last week, the top was 118.7EH/s, the newest was 106.9EH/s. Computing power (aka mining hashrate) is a key metric as it illustrates the network transactional demand.

Active & New Address

Source: BitInfoCharts

The number of active address was keeping a broad fluctuation last week, the highest was 658,000, the bottom was 499,000, showed a flat trend.

Transaction Volume on Bakkt

Source: @BakktBot

The total bitcoin’s future option on Bakkt has been decreased to 41Millions USD, decreased more than 60% comparing with last week. The maximal open contract volume was 770,000USD, decreased over 20% since the beginning of this week. This implies the institution fund has decreased their fund to BTC market.

USDT Snapshot

Source: CoinGecko

The fluctuation of USDT has became more large than last week, implies the bigger gap between investor’s long and short position. Although the entire trend towards the negative, but the premium range was getting narrow. Moreover the trading volume has increased as well, implies are doing the bottom-fish.

Google Search Trend

The decreased public enthusiasm did not show a good performance last week from the Google Search trend.

Fear & Greed Index

FGI was 50, was at a Neutral sentiment. FGI looks at six different factors to score investor sentiment on a scale of zero to 100 — extreme fear to extreme greed respectively: market volatility (25%) + market momentum (25%) + social media trend (15%) + market survey (15%) + the ratio of Bitcoin in the market (10%) + Google trend (10%).

Long/Short Ratio

Source: OKEx

The newest long/short ratio was 1.75, the long position has kept dominating. This showed a high consistency on short-term increase, which may also have a bounce back. According to past experience, if the ratio is too high it is highly likely that we will see a market correction.

In conclusion

The price may keep the increase trend in next week, the price where it can archive is depending on the new fund and the market sentiment. Since the long/short is already in a high level, a bounce back will not be easily prevented. However, the increasing trend has already shown up, we don’t need to be fear about the adjustment.

In the next week the price may go to USD$9200 again.

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