So what is going to happen next? For those who ask: I suggest that rather than yearn to know, we focus on what we can know. And that is, what is happening right now. What’s poorly understood is that seeing reality clearly is a competitive advantage. In these shifting times, I would counsel you to ask, “What do I see clearly?” and “How do I know?”
The Trigonometry of (Collapsing) Market Multiples
Gus Tai
676

Great advice Gus. I agree: Seeing reality clearly is a competitive advantage especially when working in markets where assumptions often trump data analysis. At BlogHer, arming ourselves with data was the solution in two market downturns. In 2008, right after the market tanked, we saw the first blogs by women whose families faced foreclosure, followed immediately by widespread blogging on frugal grocery shopping. After tracking the space for a couple months, We decided to invest in separately packaging BlogHer’s Food and Cooking blogs for advertisers and marketers — as well as let in the hundreds of food blogs on our wait list. While many publishers were questioning whether women would ever blog at scale (we were) and deliver quality (ditto), I believed our burgeoning epicurean community could deliver more revenue for us with foodie community advice needed by the growing number of folks eating at home to save money. By Q4 we were on our way to publishing one of the largest food networks online with a whole new revenue stream — as well as a Series B round.

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