An Open Letter To Superdelegates

Dear Superdelegate,

How are you? I hope you are doing well.

So you have decided to vote for Hillary because you think she can beat Trump. I’d like to propose an alternative train of thought.

In this asymmetrical election season, we see all kinds of demographic studies trying to explain why people like Trump or Sanders.

I would like to think through the lens of cognitive behavior and make two points on why Hillary does not compete well with Trump.

In Daniel Kahnerman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow, he described our mind as having two systems. System one is fast, intuitive, emotional, and often illogical. System two is slow, deliberate, rational and logical.

How many undecided and independent voters favor using system one to make decisions compare to system two? Do they have the time after work and the mental energy to process information using system two?

Here’s the first point I’ll make. For voters that utilize system one for majority of their decision making process, Trump has a huge advantage over Hillary. His direct marketing skill is leaps and bounds beyond what Hillary is capable of. He is aware that media needs stories, and no stories can be written without attention grabbing headlines. The headline that he delivers will often serves as confirmation bias towards what he would like to create in people’s mind.

My second point is this. For voters that have a reservoir of mental energy to process information primary through system two, Trump also present a better bet. The rationalization here is very simple. One does not build great new things without taking down what exists previously. For example, voting for Trump will actually get people closer to single payer because Trump and the Republicans will repeal Obamacare and have nothing substantive to replace it with. At the end of Trump’s term, things will be so bad that even conservatives will demand a separation of health and the profit motive. Trump represents a reset button. Could Hillary GTD her way to improve Obamacare with a Republican controlled house?

So, superdelegate, are you really confident Hillary can beat Trump? What is the math that tells you Bernie people will convert to Hillary when Hillary does not and will not push for what they are asking for? Wouldn’t a Bernie vote be a better bet against Trump? You get all the Bernie people plus all the Hillary people. You wouldn’t even need to hope for a nomination bump to give Hillary a lead beyond margin of error at the polls.

Your friend,

Louis