A Dream of Winning: Part 3 “ The Unit”
Units, bankroll management and the lie you have all been told. Not a bad hook hey? A little shocking perhaps, given it seems to be the most generic answer given on how to be a successful gambler. Well, I hate to break it to you, but you have all been lied to. Seen as a means to sell, the concept of a unit was born. The time was 1980, and the tout market was booming. Handicappers knew they had a product, winning bets to sell to gamblers. But a problem arose, how best to sell their information. It would do them no good to simply to state I am up so much money, because not everyone is going to have so much money to risk in the first place. Enter the Unit, and exist any chance this industry ever had at producing sound content.
A unit, as I’m sure all you gamblers know is your standard bet amount on a game. For the purpose of this article moving forward i’m going to say a Unit equals 100 dollars. It’s completely trivial in the sense that a Unit can really equally anything, and in that is the value of units. It provides something tangible to point to that’s not a dollar figure. It gives weight to a capper being up or down, up 100 units well that could be any amount really, all depends on your unit size. With this I take no issue. I use units on twitter it’s true, it makes it easy for posting, nothing wrong with that. For me anyway the issue arises when people point to needing units to be successful in gambling, no just no. It’s a crutch of an answer, so much goes unsaid with the simple reply, “bro ya need units”. Does it stem from a place of not actually knowing anything or truly believe that it’s that simple? I don’t know, you be the judge, however it’s simply not a total reflection of the truth.
Let me explain further before you get all upset. Ok, great so you have the concept of a unit down, now what? Just because you have a car doesn’t mean you can successfully drive it. So then why does units become the answer given for what it takes to be successful. No just no. It’s wrong and it’s a crutch, units are a means to an end. Not the end itself. Understand that there’s more to the puzzle, more pieces of information you need in order to actually understand what you are doing. This is why the staking component of the miniseries will be two parts long. It’s complex. If you want to get better that’s simply no longer going to cut it. I always wished there was a place to learn when I started gambling, it would have saved me a lot of money and time. Well I don’t contend that I know everything and will be the first to admit I still have gaps in my knowledge I think what I can provided you with is a better base of understanding. Do you need units? NO, however it will help keep your organized and help with that tricky discipline thing. So now the questions becomes how many do I need, and how many do I risk.
The answer to both is a little ambiguous, some will tell you that you need 100 units in a bankroll, others will say 30–50 will do. Again this will come down more to how you bet, if you are risking multi units as a base for a bet you need a larger bankroll ie more units to sustain the ups and downs that will come. If you stake more along the lines of 1u per game as the average closer to 50 units is probably a more realistic amount to have in the roll.
Personally I don’t see a reason for 3 units to be the base amount you risk on a game, other than you are looking for a way to boost your overall units records. Which sorry not sorry is only a means to sell, and again we see the issue with units. They are not the end all be all, because of their ambiguous nature. Who is a better caper the guy doing 300 unit bombs as an average play up 700 units on the year? Or the guy doing only 1u plays up 50 units on the year? If you said the 700 unit guy this isnt for you. 300 unit plays? Really? At 100 dollars a unit that’s a 30 thousand dollar play.. 1. This capper Unit size is either pennies or 2. He is looking to inflate a unit record and sell. Born as a means to an end and not an end itself. I have no issue with selling hell I do it, I do take issues with scams like this though. Be wary of the unit, it’s a leverage spot, it can be manipulated.
The more units the risk the bigger the swings, I’m a big fan of aim small miss small. I have been very successful at it. No swings just steady, if 6% growth isn’t good enough for you in a month again get out now, cause this isn’t for you. (More on this next week). It’s fine if you think I am wrong, I don’t need you to believe me. I’m just offering what I have learned based on my experience. Maybe you’re the guy who loves a 3u play as your base cause any less isn’t really worth it. Well why not just increase your unit size? Ie the amount of money a Unit actually equals? Because it potentially lowers the amount of units you can win? If your answer is yes to that question you’re either a scammer or an idiot. No in between. This isn’t about winning units it’s about winning money.
The majority of my plays come at a 1 unit stake, this is what i’m comfortable with, again aim small miss small. My unit count may be down from others that love their bombs, but my ROI is higher ill bet my left nut on that. Return on investment measures what you have gained over what has been risked. This is the measuring stick, or at least a better measuring stick than a unit.
So when you see a record ask not for how many units a capper is up, look for the ROI (Return on Investment).
All of this is not to say you can’t have bigger plays, you can and should pick your spots. My view though is a 2u play is twice as strong as a 1u play and a 3u play is 3x as strong as 1u play. How often should that happen really? Again ambiguous in that there is really no right answer, depends on you and what you look for. I think selectivity is important, I value it greatly, I pride myself on it. What really warrants a 2u play, it’s a slippery slope. What really warranted a 3u 5u play, how can you tell the difference? I’m not here to give you a system, more suggestions.
Proper Staking: Finally the good stuff. Firstly can this be done without a computer system? IE can you do this as an average guy without some crazy excel stat crunching super sheet. My answer yes, many will say no. Arguing you need some set algorithm, if you have one great, i’m sure it took you a lot of time to build and maybe it’s even really successful, however it’s not the end all be all. There is a human element to sports, don’t believe me that’s fine. What about a DFS pro though, someone who spent 50 thousand dollars on developing an all inclusive program to determine outcomes, would you care what they had to say? BeepImAJeep is a world famous DFS player. In “Dueling With Kings” He explains how through all his research all his money spent and time he found that sports were in fact not determined solely by stats. It wasn’t possible, the human element as he called it made it impossible. It was too much to account for in a computer model, did it help to have one? You bet your ass, but it can be done without one. I do it without one. I prefer the pen and paper approach to that of the mindless bet what a program says, I trust myself I trust my gut. Long term will I be successful? I think so, if you don’t that’s fine, my articles are my opinions and you should draw your own from my writing. Don’t be a leeming, think for yourself.
So you don’t have some super fancy computer model, now what? How do you determine a spot in the market to invest in and how much. I am going to give you 2 methods.
First the Flat Bet: You start with say 100 dollars as a unit and have a bankroll of 5 Grand. You bet 1 unit per game with the rare exception of 2u plays and ever rarer exception of 3u plays when you determine and inefficiency in the market based on your knowledge (ie a good spot to take advantage of). Your bet amount remains the same regardless of your bankroll size. Simple enough.
Second the Percentage Bet: Relatively similar as the methodology above with one key difference. As your bankroll shrinks or grows so does the amount you bet. Instead of set unit sizes they flow and move it’s 1% of your bankroll instead of a set 1unit amount.
You will notice both methods are seemingly simplistic and safe. Well that’s the secret, the mystery of how to do this. Don’t take stupid chances. KISS/ Keep It Simple Stupid. No reason to make this complex. Next week I will talk about when to pull money out of your account and how to determine “Value” (hate this word).
If there is anything you guys want me to write on please send me a DM.
BOL,
TheMill
