Coast to Coast — MLS 2023 Previews of LAFC, NYCFC, LA Galaxy, and NY Red Bulls
The two most populated cities in America are the only ones represented twice in MLS. All 4 teams reached the post-season last year, and each city has provided one of the previous two MLS Cup winners. Where better to start the MLS 2023 Previews in earnest than with Los Angeles FC, New York City FC, LA Galaxy, and NY Red Bulls.
To preview each team, I will use the attacking and defending radars that I used last season (unfortunately no more pressing data from Statsbomb, so I’ve added goalkeepers sweeping activity to try and give an indication of how high a line each team plays). I’m also going to use an age distribution plot as above for each squad based on minutes played. We can see the ages with the highest number of minutes is from 24 to 28, which makes logical sense with regard to peak athletic ability. Combining these with an analysis of a side’s transfers in and out, we will hopefully get a fuller picture of the prospects of each team heading into the new season.
Los Angeles FC
LAFC enter the new season as league champions and from looking at their underlying numbers, it’s easy to see why. They combined an excellent shot heavy attack, with an elite defence that gave up few shots which typically were of very low quality. It’s interesting to note that they were not dogmatic in following either a short passing game, or a relentless high press, ranking only just above average in pass percentage completed and allowed. One stand out feature of their play was how averse they were to crossing the ball relative to other sides. The only weakness of note shown in the radars is that they gave up a well above average number of shots from set pieces.
LAFC’s age distribution plot speaks to a team with a typical spread across the age ranges. Of their 11 players with the most minutes last season, 5 were in the “peak” range of 24–28, 3 were 30+, and 3 were under 23. Giorgio Chiellini stands alone as the one true veteran of the side, playing 713 minutes in a half season.
In terms of holding onto their title winning side, LAFC have only lost one of their most frequently used 10 player, but it did happen to be their top scorer. Cristian Arango scored 15 non-penalty goals with 4 assists in 26 90’s last season, and has moved on to Pachuca in Liga MX. LAFC have not signed a direct replacement as of yet, and replacing his goals, either with a single player or a collective increase, is the key challenge of this new season. If they are to fill the void with a player already on the books, they could well choose Kwadwo Opoku who played across the frontline last season. Carlos Vela was not as much of direct goal threat as previous year, but is an option as a false nine. Another shout might be Denis Bouanga, who actually had a greater xG per 90 than Arango last season, albeit in limited minutes. Looking at his radar profile from his time in St Etienne as a winger, you can see a similar high shooting approach to Arango
Although they only lost 1 of their top 10 players, LAFC have moved on the next 6 players who played the most minutes (ie positions 11 to 16). Latif Blessing (25) provided solid work rate when called upon but only provided 1 assist in 1334 minutes, while Brian Rodriguez (21) was sold midseason to Club America, having not yet fulfilled the potential LAFC when they made him their record signing as a 19 year old. Looking to take on their minutes, Croatian winger Stipe Biuk (20) has joined for €6.50m from Hadjuk Split. He has 5 goals and 8 assists in ~3300 career minutes in their league, so will probably need to improve on those returns to earn a starting spot.
At the back Mamadou Fall (19) left for Villareal midseason, while Ibeagha (30) and Segura (24) have both left for free at the end of the year. The trio combined for 33 starts across the season, essentially a full season, so a new signing was required, and their answer was to sign a player from the MLS All Star Team for free.
Aaron Long (29) arrives from the high pressing New York Red Bulls, who play a very direct style of football. He hasn’t moved to a tiki-taka side in LAFC, so his adjustment to their system shouldn’t be as severe as it could have been when leaving the Red Bulls relatively unique style. The standout feature of Long’s radar is his aerial dominance, which may help address LAFC’s weakness at giving up chances from set pieces (Long also scored 4 times last year so he may help at the other end too). In terms of depth, Chiellini will hope to increase his minutes over a full season, whole Honduran international Denil Maldonado (24) has arrived on loan, and will be similarly looking to establish himself.
Finally, new signing Sergi Palencia arrives as replacement for the departing Franco Escobar, the back up right back. It’s been a while since Palencia played top flight football that I could make a radar from, but he can probably expect to play less crosses than he did in Bordeaux in 2019.
LAFC come into this season as defending champions, but also facing a question or two holding them back from being overwhelming favourites to win it all again. They have lost their top goalscorer with no direct replacement. Their star man Carlos Vela, whose powers have been somewhat on the wane, is another year older. In their favour, they have held onto the rest of their key players, and have freshened up their bench options. Provided they find the balance to their new frontline, it’s hard to look past LAFC for another deep post-season run.
New York City FC
NYCFC reached the Eastern Conference finals last year, with a very good attack and an excellent defence. They combined a slick short passing style with a shot suppressing pressing system. Somewhat noteworthy is that while they pressed significantly, their keeper performed far fewer defensive actions outside the box than average.
NYCFC had a rather different age profile to the norm, with 2 distinct groups present either side of the typical peak range— a significant amount of minutes were played by young players, 23 and under, while the remainder was picked up by those 29 and over. Since all of these players would be in their 30s this season, it would be fair to expect a bit of a change, and NYCFC have certainly gone about changing things, City are going to be without 5 of their 7 most used players from last season — in addition to that, they also said goodbye to their first choice fullback Anton Tinnerholm, who missed significant play time last year due to a ruptured Achilles. Oh, and there was the minor inconvenience of losing star man, Taty Castellanos midway through last season.
Sean Johnson (33) departs for Toronto after 6 years as first choice keeper in New York. While last year was his worst season in the previous 5 from a shot stopping perspective, he has remained about average or better compared to expected goals for the entirety of that period. Despite not sweeping up opposition attacks that often, the high number of touches suggests he did play a significant role in their build up play, something New England backup keeper Matt Freese (24) will now have to provide.
In defence, NYCFC will be without Alexander Callens (29) who has followed in Castellanos’ footsteps to Girona in Spain. Tony Alfaro (29), back up CB in D.C., will look to fill the void, bringing a similar level of aerial prowess and ball progression, though he will have to adjust to a far shorter passing approach. Also at the back, Slovenia Mitja Ilenic (18) has been brought as a right back, replacing the departed Tinnerholm (30).
Nicolas Acevedo (23) was an elite defensive presence in midfield last year, but has gone on loan to Bahia in Brazil. No direct replacement has been signed so it’s possible Keaton Parks will earn more minutes again this year, though the midfield configuration would change somewhat if his more box to box style is to be accommodated.
Further forward, NYCFC lost 2 of their most creative players with Maxi Moralez (35) and Santiago Rodriguez (22) both returning to their home countries of Argentina and Uruguay respectively. Also departed, though just to Seattle, is their last conventional number 9, Heber (31), who managed 8 goals in 1100 minutes. The only forward signing they’ve made is a 21 year old American from Koln’s reserve team, Gabriel Segel.
The lack of attacking midfielders signed leads me to believe that NYCFC will look to their young Brazilian wide forwards, Thiago and Gabriel Pereira, to step up and play closer to 30 matches each rather than combined this year. Both provided a decent amount of creativity last year but not on the level of the 2 departed South Americans. With Talles Magno potentially inheriting the centre forward role, there is quite a bit of pressure on this young front 3 to step up with very little in the way of cover.
It’s been quite an eventful year or so for NYCFC. They followed up their MLS Cup win by reaching the Conference Final but have lost their manager as well as most of their title-winning starting XI from 2021. An evolution of a squad with a lot of players in their 30s was inevitable, but the simultaneous loss of their experience, with several of their best young players leaving is quite a blow. They still have a couple of veterans alongside a core of talented youngsters, but there’s no denying a lot of quality has been lost. NYCFC shave time to address some issues with transfers if they choose, namely a loss of creativity, and promotion from within may also provide an answer. A transitional year is in store for the club, where if their younger players step up, this team can still be a force in the Eastern Conference, otherwise reaching the playoffs may have to be viewed as quite the achievement.
LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy reached the Western Conference Semi Finals, losing to their city rivals, on the back of being a good team on both sides of the ball. Their short passing approach brought them an above average number of above average quality. Their defence was not based on relentless pressing but they did manage to suppress opposition shots well, both from open play and set pieces.
The Galaxy provide a rather standard age distribution with a heavy contribution from peak age players. 1 year on would see a significant number of players in their 30s so a slight refresh may be in order. They have held onto their 5 players with the most minutes from last season (although Julian Araujo was a matter of seconds away from departing). 6 players with significant minutes have left however so let’s see how LA Galaxy will account for these changes.
In defence, a couple of centre backs have departed in the offseason, first choice Derrick Williams (29) is off to the capital, while backup Nick DePuy (28) has moved to Nashville. Martin Caceres (35) arrived last summer as a depth option and may see more minutes now. Chris Mavinga (31) has joined from Toronto after 19 starts last season, putting up similar numbers to William in terms of passing and aerial wins, so may slot in well
Rayan Raveloson (25) left for Auxerre midseason, and was replaced by Gaston Brugman (29), who provided less goal threat but more of a defensive and passing presence.
Victor Vazquez (35) was still putting him good creative numbers, generally playing as a 10, but the signing of Riqui Puig (22) saw the Galaxy opt for a flat midfield 3 more often. Puig has been an elite passer since joining the league, and I’m looking forward to seeing him over a full season. It’s worth pointing out at this stage that this is the only signing where the new player is actually younger than those they are replacing, and although they still have a blend of ages, they are setting themselves up for needing major changes in the not too distant future.
On the wings, LA Galaxy have lost Samuel Grandsir(26) to Le Havre and Kevin Cabral (23) to Colorado, both having played about 1600 minutes last season. Kevin Cabral only scored once from 5.3 xG, his second year of underperformance. If he can ever find his finishing boots, the Galaxy may be sorry to have lost him. Memo Rodriguez (27) is the sole signing for the wide spots, off the back of a couple underwhelming last 2 years in Houston with 2 goals and 4 assists in 3000 minutes.
Regardless of rumours swirling about Douglas Costa’s future, LA Galaxy will likely look to increase the minutes played by Efrain Alvarez (19) and Dejan Joveljic (22) out wide this year. Alvarez was very trigger happy but added genuine creativity too when on the pitch, while Joveljic ranked 3rd for xG+xA per 90 last season, albeit with 25 of 32 appearances coming as a sub. If Chicharito can still lead the line, Joveljic’s best chance of starts may be out wide.
LA Galaxy have made a number of changes to their starting XI over the last few months, with the majority of their signings being older than the players they are replacing. The Galaxy also feel light on cover in attacking spots, with young forwards Alvarez and Joveljic needed to step up. They look set for another year of being a good side, but not necessarily a great one.
New York Red Bulls
Ah New York Red Bulls! Having covered 3 teams with largely similar abilities on both sides of the ball, it is refreshing to see a side of such contrasts. NYRB’s very direct approach leads to a poor level of attacking threat, while their relentless pressing restricts their opposition to very few chances, the drawback being those chances are of incredibly high quality.
Another unique plot, NY Red Bulls’ squad is no country for old men with just one player with regular minutes over the age of 27! That makes some sense from a logic point of view, where a non stop pressing system could be too tiring for an older squad. The advantage of the young squad is that there is no need to freshen things up, and only 2 of NYRB’s most used XI have left.
“Old man” Aaron Long (29) has departed for LAFC as previously discussed. He actually missed most of the 2021 season due to injury, and Red Bull’s defence remained similarly elite so it may not be as big of a hit as losing a current MLS All Star initially sounds. His goals from set pieces will be missed, and without a new signing, it remains to be seen will they promote from within or will they favour a pure back 4 more often this season. Tom Edwards (23) featured regularly on the right of defence before his loan expired midseason. Kyle Duncan (25) returns on loan to fill that squad gap.
Patryk Klimala (24) has moved to Israel, on the back of 3 non penalty goals in 1638 minutes. While acknowledging this team does not create many good chances, his underperformance on expected goals over 2 seasons is staggering — 8 scored from an expected 17! NYRB have certainly set about addressing this weak point. Elias Manoel was just about beating Klimala for the starting spot at the end of last season, and his loan from Gremio has been made permanent. Dante Vanzeir (24) has signed from Belgium, with 23 goals and 12 assists in 4100 minutes over the last 2 seasons, he may add the creativity which this side is missing. Cory Burke (31), one of Philadelphia Union’s 4 rotating strikers, has been brought in too, becoming the team’s solo veteran. He picked up 7 goals and 4 assists in 1176 minutes, was involved in all but 1 regular season game, and will look to provide a similar impact when called upon for his new side.
New York Red Bulls have a unique style of play which has led to an underwhelming attack and a defence which is overwhelming for their opposition. They move into the new season with their young squad largely unchanged but 1 year more experienced. The questions facing them is how do they cope with the permanent loss of their most experienced defender, and how do their new forwards cope at addressing the team’s major weakness. A bit more firepower is all that stands between them and a deeper playoff run this season.
Conclusion
These previews sum up where I think each squad is with 2 weeks to go until the season kicks off. I’ll keep an eye out for any key transfers and make addendums to a thread on Twitter.
Long days and pleasant nights
