FC Cincinnati: The Best Team in MLS?
Heading into the final straight of the season, FC Cincinnati hold an 8 point lead at the top of MLS with 11 games to go. Their league position suggests they are the best side in MLS this year — is that true? To get slightly better insight into their prospects for the post-season, let’s take a look at how their underlying numbers hold up by comparison.
In terms of both goals scored and xG, Cincinnati’s attack ranks just inside the top 5. By historical standards, the attack ranks as merely just above average suggesting that teams have somewhat struggled to create chances this season. The style of play is direct from kick off, with a roughly average pass percent, slightly favouring shot quality over quantity. Their defence similarly ranks in the top 5 both for goals conceded and xGC. Cincinnati do not employ a high press, and focus on limiting opponent shot quality. They have been good on generating shots from set pieces but have been worse on them defensively, which could prove a significant weakness in the knockout rounds.
FC Cincinnati possess a rather distinct age distribution at this point of the season. Six of Cincinnati’s most regularly used XI — as well as the next 2 most frequently used backups — are between the age of 28 and 33. The team is supplementing these players with a significant contribution from younger players (especially 22 year olds!) meaning there is plenty of fresh legs to cover any potential concerns of an ageing side.
Roman Celentano has enjoyed a promising start to his second season in MLS, albeit with a couple notes of caution. The 22 year old is a goal ahead of xG, with a high save percentage. It’s worth mentioning however that he has faced relatively few shots, and those were of exceedingly low quality on average. He also hasn’t shown much ability in coming off his line, though this can be a chicken and egg scenario with the team tactics — if the coach wants him to stay at home, so be it.
FC Cincinnati field 3 centrebacks, who are all performing well in the air. This might raise a question as to how they are still giving up more shots than average from set pieces — a coaching issue or just variance? The wide centrebacks share a relatively similar profile, while Miazga makes the fewest tackles and interceptions, but is responsible for the majority of long balls from the back 3.
Full disclosure: my fullback radars are a bit of a fudge when it comes to separating defenders in FBref’s data. How wingbacks fare in this profile is an open question especially when they play in more than one position or have been sharing minutes like Arias and Gaddis. A contrast is visible between them at least with roughly 1000 minutes each, Gaddis has been better at dribbling and not getting dribbled past, while Arias has at least offered competency in the air and solid progressive passing. On the left, dribbling and crossing have been the key offensive contributions of Alvaro Barreal while making an elite number of blocks.
Obinna Nwobodo has been a defensive powerhouse in the Cincinnati midfield, and has offered some solid ball progression to boot. The 26 year old has made 20 starts so far, and will be key to FC Cincinnati’s chances. His midfield partner, Junior Moreno, has been a tidy passer but not exerted the same influence defensively while not contributing much more of an attacking presence. The 30 year old Venezuelan international can’t be surprised if he finds his position under threat going forward.
Luciano Acosta leads the team in both goals and assists, and ranks 10th in the league for combined non-penalty xG+xA. The safe and steady midfield duo behind him obviously allow for Acosta’s high risk style of play, with all his dribbling, creativity and shooting leading to a high number of turnovers and a relatively low pass success rate.
Up front, Brandon Vazquez has started the majority of matches, while Dominque Badji and Sergio Santos Gomes have alternated the roles of starter and impact sub. Both Vazquez and Badji have been good in the air, with Vazquez a slightly better goal threat and Badji offering more creativity — neither however have been elite.
The departure of Brenner, one of the leagues best forwards last year, has undoubtedly been a loss and FC Cincinnati have attempted to address this with the signing of Aaron Boupendza who managed to score in his 15 minute debut before the break. While no one is expecting him to stay remotely at that pace, a new star striker in the back half of the season could really kick this side on to the level their league position suggests they are already at.
FC Cincinnati are undoubtedly a good team. They have a solid attack, which they have looked to improve with the signing of Boupendza. They have a better defence, which is potentially a weakness at set pieces away from being elite. They are all but a lock for the playoffs with the impressive lead they have built in the Eastern Conference, and will be an unpleasant matchup for many sides in the post season. Are they the best side in MLS like their league position suggests? The jury remains out.
Long days and pleasant nights.
