MLS Playoffs Preview: Round One
It’s post-season time! The playoffs are here, 2 teams have a bye, LAFC and Philadelphia Union, and there’s 12 teams competing in Round One for the remaining 6 spots in the Conference semi finals. Let’s see if we can determine who is likely to progress by comparing their radar profiles, and possibly evaluate if a strong underlying attack or defense is more key to success.
Western Conference
LA Galaxy (4) vs Nashville SC (5)
A balanced clash of styles for this first match, with LA Galaxy boasting the stronger attack based on a slick short passing game, while Nashville SC play a much more direct game but back it up with an elite defense, limiting opposition shot quality. The question here of course is does a good attack triumph a great defense? Both teams are excellent at limiting shots from set pieces, which is a bigger part of Nashville’s attack. I’m going to edge for the Galaxy dominating the ball at home and ultimately turning that pressure into goals.
Pick: LA Galaxy
FC Dallas (3) vs Minnesota United(6)
Our second match appears to be a rather more straight forward call. FC Dallas lead Minnesota United on both sides of the ball, with a decent attack and a great defense. Minnesota, on the other hand, may be one of the most distinctly average sides on record, neither excelling or failing on any particular stat. Factor in home advantage, and it’s hard to see Minnesota overachieving any further.
Pick: FC Dallas
Austin FC (2) vs Real Salt Lake (7)
Another match of attack versus defense, with Austin creating high quality chances from their passing game but are very porous, while Real Salt Lake are quite direct and rely on a sturdy rearguard action. It’s certainly a surprise to have a close call between 2nd and 7th seeds. Have Austin suffered from game state effects, or has their goal lived a charmed life this year on the right side of variance? Real lost 3–0 in Texas last month, but this time, they’re out for revenge and their defense might just deliver.
Pick: Real Salt Lake
Eastern Conference
New York Red Bulls (4) vs FC Cincinnati (5)
Now for the Eastern Conference, where we kick off with two of the most direct sides in the play offs. Cincinnati’s boast a great attack, creating chances of very high quality, while Red Bulls chance quality is at the other end of the spectrum, leading to a subpar offense. Defensively, the teams are more closely matched, both well above average, but differ in approaches. Cincinnati restrict opposition shot quality, but the Red Bulls’ all out pressing approach gives up huge chances on the rare occasions they get bypassed. This is a tough call, but even with the home advantage, New York’s soft underbelly may play directly into Cincinnati’s hands.
Pick: FC Cincinnati
NYCFC (3) vs Inter Miami (6)
A rather one-sided match between NYCFC and Inter Miami is to be expected, where the Citizens are dominant on both sides of the ball, while Inter couple a weak attack with an above average defense. Both teams follow a similar style of play with the ball, but NYCFC restrict the passing game of their opposition while Miami allow their opponents the ball but try to limit their shot quality. Sadly, Gonzalo Higuain’s career looks set to end in a first round defeat.
Pick: NYCFC
CF Montréal (2) vs Orlando City (7)
Finally, it’s second seed CF Montréal versus seventh seed Orlando City, and the underlying numbers back up the seedings. The Canadians’ good attack will find a challenge against the Miami side’s above average attack, but their elite defense should not have much to fear from Orlando’s weak attack. The teams have similar passing styles and pressing intensity, but Montréal create chances of far higher quality and restrict their opposition to very few shots.
Pick: CF Montréal
That’s 4 picks in line with the seedings (and home advantage), we’ll review the results next week when the lineups for the Conference Semi Finals will be confirmed.
Long days and pleasant nights.
