Labour Facing Wipeout?
My first thoughts are on the Richmond Park byelection are obviously a great win for the Lib Dems and a poor result for the government. Lib Dems victory in a campaign fought on a de facto plebiscite on the government’s Brexit plans.
And thus, I think we can discount an early election with Conservative MPs feeling vulnerable to EU supporters switching to the Lib Dems.
However, unpleasant the result might be for the Conservatives it is nothing compared to the how the result looks for Labour. In the EU referendum two thirds of Labour supporters are thought to have voted remain, and at a general election it’s surely clear who many Labour EU supporters are going to vote for and it’s not going to be Labour as the Richmond Park lost deposit attests to.
Labour is facing a wipe out at the next general election with its support under threat from UKIP in the North and Lib Dems in the south.
Of course, much of what I’ve written is speculation, I don’t know how many Conservative MPs would be at risk from EU supporters voting Lib Dem and the often quoted two thirds of Labour supporters voting remain is the result of a poll by Lord Ashcroft of 12,369 people after they’d voted in the EU referendum so that two thirds figure is not a fact, but it’s the best figure we have so I’ve run with it.
To repeat myself I remain pessimistic of a Labour success at the next general election so much so that I worry the party might even be pushed into third behind either the Lid Dems or god forbid UKIP or even both and fourth place.
These are worrying times!