Maker of DecisioninSolar PanelThe Accuracy / Usefulness distinctionDistinctions are useful. They probably would top my mindlist of meta-cognitive tools. The first such distinction I can recall is that…Nov 24, 2016Nov 24, 2016
Maker of DecisioninSolar PanelHow I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Ingroup FavoritismEpistemic Status: Fairly Confident. Implications: Very Uncertain.Sep 27, 20161Sep 27, 20161
Maker of DecisioninSolar PanelDutch Books and Bayesian BettingThe last two posts spent a fair amount of time trying to explain why you should be willing to bet, and why you need to offer fair odds…Sep 9, 20161Sep 9, 20161
Maker of DecisioninSolar PanelFair Betting, and Glitches in the MatrixLast time, I talked about why betting is a good idea. I didn’t mention a key point — if you want your betting to help you the most, you…Sep 6, 2016Sep 6, 2016
Maker of DecisioninSolar PanelInevitable bets versus useful betsMany people in the rationalist community advocate betting — either because of how socially useful prediction markets can be, because it…Sep 1, 2016Sep 1, 2016
Maker of DecisioninSolar PanelMeditation on the Nature of WallsPeople have always built walls. Some walls are built by accident, some by default, and a few are built on purpose — but it’s not always…Aug 22, 2016Aug 22, 2016
Maker of DecisioninSolar PanelImpossible, Implausible, and Scaled ReasoningIt’s tempting to treat small probabilities as if they are irrelevant, and in daily life that usually suffices. That’s why Content Of…Aug 15, 20161Aug 15, 20161
