By Shaking Up the Primary Schedule, Democrats Can Look to the Future
By: María Teresa Kumar
Future races for the White House are already taking shape. While the Republican Party has opted out of making any changes to their presidential primary process, the Democratic Party is currently updating their primary calendar for 2024 and beyond. It could not come at a better time. Party leaders have an opportunity to shake up the order of the earliest states that help determine who becomes the party’s nominee.
The good news is that Democratic leaders may finally be poised to dump the Iowa Caucus as first in the nation. However, the rumor is that some leaders are considering demoting Iowa but instead elevating New Hampshire to go first.
That would be a colossal mistake for Democrats. An older, sparsely populated, 90% white state like New Hampshire setting the tone for the rest of the presidential primary season is a bad fit.
For the state that kicks off future nominating contests, the Democratic Party should strongly consider somewhere more representative of where we are headed as a nation — an inclusive state with a strong union base, accessible voting laws, and a multiracial coalition of younger voters demanding action on a modern policy agenda.
Nevada reflects that future. It embodies the diverse coalition that flipped key states like Georgia and Arizona in 2020, propelling President Joe Biden to the White House and Democrats to Senate control. Nevada requires Democratic candidates to engage with critical factions of the party’s increasingly diverse base, appeal to a broad electorate, and develop a strong ground game in rural, urban, and suburban communities.
By moving Nevada to the front of the line, party leaders would also recognize what they have often missed: the power of the burgeoning Latino community, which officially became the second-largest voting demographic just four years ago.
Far more than New Hampshire, Nevada mirrors the path to victory in other key battlegrounds that will continue to make up the path to 270 Electoral Votes. For example, while Latinos currently represent less than 5% of the Georgia electorate, Latino children represent close to 20% of the kids in Georgia classrooms. Voto Latino has been focused on this growth for more than a decade precisely for this reason: young people of color flip states and decide who wins the White House when they participate.
In 2020, Latinos accounted for 13% of eligible voters nationwide, up from 10% in 2008. Between 2010 and 2020, the Latino population grew by 23%. In Nevada, Latino populations in Clark and Washoe counties grew by 23% and 30% respectively, over the last decade, according to Census data.
From 2016 to 2020, we saw Democratic margins among Latino voters narrow significantly in key swing states. Since then, poll after poll shows warning signs about Latino support.
If you’re a Democrat looking to win the presidency, improving Latino support has to be a top priority. By picking Nevada to play an integral role in the process of choosing a president, Democrats have a chance to demonstrate to Latino voters that they understand how integral we are to the party’s electoral success.
But winning in Nevada and other battleground states isn’t only about appealing to Latino voters. It’s about appealing to a diverse population that, when properly courted, delivers the White House. Nevada is the coalition needed to win: Latino voters, African American voters, AAPI voters, white voters, rural voters, and union members.
Winning over this coalition starts with voter outreach, and it’s clear that both parties have a lot of work to do. In a survey of Latino voters in six battleground states conducted shortly before the 2020 election, the Voter Participation Center found that only 44% of all Latinos had even been contacted by a political party.
Taken together, Nevada as the first in the nation primary offers the Democratic Party a unique opportunity. In a moment where so many voters question what the party stands for — and who the party will fight for — what better proving ground for all of its future standard bearers? If the party hopes to produce a truly battle-tested nominee capable of winning the White House, it would do well to start in a state that actually looks like America today, and one that represents America’s future, too.
As the country changes, how we choose a president must change as well. Democrats should look no further than Nevada to lead that change.
