Mark RoulstonV.C.M.: The Three Things Wrong with Voluntary Carbon MarketsThere are three problems with voluntary carbon markets (VCMs): the “V” bit, the “C” bit, and the “M” bit.Jul 19, 2023Jul 19, 2023
Mark RoulstonScience or marketing?When evaluating a study one should ask whether it would have been published had the results turned out differently. If the decision to…Mar 16, 2022Mar 16, 2022
Mark RoulstonWhy no climate warranties?The market for climate risk forecasts suffers from information asymmetries which could be mitigated by warranties from forecast providers…Mar 10, 2022Mar 10, 2022
Mark RoulstonHow climate-related risk disclosures could become a cost without a benefitThe market for forward-looking climate information is structurally vulnerable to bad products pushing out good products. This will…Dec 17, 2021Dec 17, 2021
Mark RoulstonNavigating net zero with prediction marketsThere is a proliferation of net zero pledges and commitments being made by countries and companies. We lack an effective mechanism to…Oct 20, 2021Oct 20, 2021
Mark RoulstoninHivemindAGORA hurricane prediction markets settledOn November 30 the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season came to an end and Hivemind settled prediction markets forecasting how many hurricanes…Dec 4, 2020Dec 4, 2020
Mark RoulstoninHivemindHow good are AGORA forecasts?An analysis of forecast produced by Hivemind’s AGORA prediction market platform suggests that they are well calibrated.Nov 24, 2020Nov 24, 2020
Mark RoulstoninHivemindCurrent outlook: hurricane prediction marketMark Roulston, Senior Data Scientist • 08 Sep 2020Oct 21, 2020Oct 21, 2020
Mark RoulstoninHivemindAnnouncing the Sept 2020 Covid-19 prediction market settlementMark Roulston, Senior Data Scientist • 05 Oct 2020Oct 21, 2020Oct 21, 2020
Mark RoulstoninHivemind65 percent chance another hurricane will make US landfall this seasonMark Roulston, Senior Data Scientist • 15 Oct 2020Oct 21, 2020Oct 21, 2020