How the Tory surprise majority and the massive SNP rise is a proof of the Canadianisation of British Politics

The British general election of 2015 last week was historic in many ways.

The Tories won a surprise majority. The pollsters failed to predict a ‘’shy Tory’’ factor like in 1992. UKIP did remarkably well in popular vote especially in England and Wales — but failed in winning any seat except the seat of popular MP Douglas Carswell in Clacton.

But as much as 2013 and 2014 were the years of an sizable rise of UKIP support especially at local and European elections in England, the greatest change of this general election was the massive rise of the SNP in Scotland.

The SNP rise is so big — and the party was helped with the first past the post electoral system that the party dominance is unlike any party in Scottish politics in ages. In 2010, it would have been really difficult to find any pundit who would have predicted that Labour would have the same number of seats than the Tories (or Lib Dems) in Scotland five years later.

What we see here a Canadianisation of British politics. In the last federal election of 2011, the Canadian Tories won a surprise majority which no pollster predicted — and regionally the left-of-centre New Democratic Party achieved massive swings (in the 30–40s% in many constituencies) especially in the French-speaking province of Québec.

It’s not rare also in Canadian politics to have high ranking politicians (or even major party leaders) lose their seats especially in the last few years- like this happened for Ed Balls who unexpectedly lost his seat in Yorkshire in a Michael Portillo-esque moment.

The irony is that this swing was to a unionist social democratic party against a party similar to the SNP, which is the Bloc Québécois. It was the exact opposite of what happened in Scotland but with a situation which was a spitting image of how the first past the post electoral system sometimes give disproportionate results to winning and losing parties.

Before the general 2011 election, in the 1990's and 2000's, the SNP cousin in the Canadian House of Commons (the Bloc Québécois) was able to win a load of seats in the province of Québec 75 constituencies (or ridings) in the Canadian House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois even had such a big caucus that they were even Her Majesty’s official opposition in the Canadian House of Commons from 1993 to 1997 after the Progressive Conservative implosion and the rise of a Canadian UKIP-like party (the Reform Party).

From 1993 to 2011, the Bloc Québécois was in national party TV debates even if it did not had candidates outside the province of Québec. The only difference is that the Bloc Québécois always was weak among non-francophones and among immigrants who are concentrated in a few electoral constituencies especially in the island of Montreal.

Even with a paltry popular vote like in 1997, 2006 and 2008 — the first past the past tend to help regionalist parties if they are able to command a certain level of support especially against a divided opposition.

In time of minority governments (they happened in Canada without interruption from 2004 to 2011), the Bloc Québécois had supported both the government and the opposition, whatever it was Liberal or Conservative.

This SNP landslide who had defeated so many Labour MP that it will create a dangerous situation for Labour just like it did from the Canadian Liberal Party for decades.

In Canada, the Bloc Québécois rise had given a lot of trouble to the Canadian Liberal Party who had massive support for decades and decades in Quebec until 1984.

Even today — in part because of the Bloc Québécois astronomical rise in 1993 and their abrupt fall in 2011 to a meager 4 seats, the Liberals were never able to do well in Quebec even if four if their last five non-interim leaders were from the province of Quebec. No matter what, in every leader debate, there was always at least one leader from Quebec because of the Quebec Nationalists who were strong in the Canadian federal political sphere until 2011.

And yet, the most illustrious fact is that at a sub-national level, the Quebec Nationalists were able to win a majority in the Quebec National Assembly in each of the elections after the two independence referendums (in 1980 and 1995) they had lost. Perhaps this could be a sign of another SNP majority in the next Scottish Assembly election even if Scots are not keen for another referendum according to recent polling.

The new normal is that the SNP will be part of the daily business in Westminster as the main third party in the House of Commons. Even if the British Labour Party have another Scottish leader — the SNP rise will make it more difficult for Labour to have a ‘’favorite son’’ bonus like it did for Gordon Brown as Labour leader in 2010.

The main consequence of having so many Labour losses in Scotland is that it could put the Scottish Labour Party in the wilderness for many, many years. Just like the Liberal Party of Canada were never able to gain again a strong footing in the province of Quebec since the 1980 Canadian election.

Could we say that in politics — plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose? Could Canadian politics explains what lies ahead in British politics?