Figuring out the Frogs: Perception vs Reality
TCU hasn’t been as good as advertised. It also isn’t in as much trouble as some people say.
Perspective is important. Stepping back to take a macro view of a situation is the best way we have to understand reality as it truly is.
Perspective doesn’t gravitate toward knee-jerk reactions or hot takes. It gravitates toward context.
Perspective is what allowed TCU to look at its 2015 season as a rousing success. Given the context of all the personnel losses on defense (first to graduation and then to injury) and later all the personnel losses on offense (first to injury and then to suspension), an 11–2 campaign and an historic comeback win in a bowl game were better than the Horned Frogs could have ever asked for.
But heading into the 2016 season, perspective gave way to projection. The Frogs were a trendy, dark horse playoff pick. The thought process was that with all the players returning from injuries, the TCU defense would return to its rightful place atop the Big 12. Conventional wisdom said the TCU offense, now guided by former Texas A&M sensation Kenny Hill and a wealth of young skill position talent, would keep churning out yards and points even without its three best players from a year ago: Trevone Boykin, Josh Doctson and Aaron Green.
Few talked about the fact that the defense was losing its best player in Derrick Kindred, as well as veteran leaders up front in Davion Pierson, Terrell Lathan and Mike Tuaua. People didn’t really talk about the fact that while a lot of players were coming back from injury, guys like Sammy Douglas and Kenny Iloka had hardly played at all before they got hurt. They didn’t really expect that Ranthony Texada, now the Frogs’ top corner, might not be all the way back from a major knee injury yet.
On offense, no one really talked about Hill’s inconsistencies in College Station, or the fact that his record-breaking debut came against a South Carolina team that finished 7–6 and 3–5 in the SEC. No one really acknowledged that while the Frogs had a ton of talent at receiver, they were still really young. Also ignored was the fact that TCU overachieved in 2015 and won three games (at Texas Tech, at Kansas State, vs Baylor) it probably shouldn’t have thanks in large part to the play of Boykin, Doctson and Green.
Even if the team was better, it would have been unreasonable to think that a better record was a given with all the late-game bounces that went the Frogs’ way a year ago. The laws of probability said the team’s luck would likely regress a little bit toward the mean.
Now three games into 2016, all that perspective has been forced upon the Frogs. The offense is still explosive, but it isn’t efficient. The defense is still young, and it’s still without many leaders, especially in the secondary.
An 8- or 9-win season was always a possibility for TCU when all that perspective was taken into account. It’s just that everyone is now being forced to actually acknowledge that possibility.
And here’s where more perspective is needed: a Big 12 title and a playoff berth are still a possibility for TCU as well. Do they seem as likely as they seemed a month ago? No. But the Big 12 has just two undefeated teams remaining in Week 4 (Baylor and West Virginia). Oklahoma has already lost twice. Texas and Oklahoma State are both 2–1.
TCU’s one loss is by three points at home to an Arkansas team that (at least right now) looks pretty good. They’re coming off a 41–20 win against Iowa State, about the margin one of the league’s top teams should expect against one of its bottom feeders.
The defense has looked better each of the past two weeks. In the first 58 minutes against the Razorbacks, TCU allowed one offensive touchdown. The Frogs allowed just one touchdown before garbage time against the Cyclones as well. Neither of those offenses really compare to what the Frogs will face in Big 12 play, but they haven’t looked as hapless on that side of the ball as they did in Week 1 against South Dakota State. The tackling, however, has been suspect, and against the pace-and-space offenses of the Big 12, that will get exposed more and more if it doesn’t get remedied.
The offense has shown the ability to move the ball when it needs to do so, racking up 572 and 481 yards in each of the last two games. The Frogs are currently fourth in the country in total offense. But those numbers also have to be put in perspective with Hill’s frequent inaccurate passes and the receivers’ ill-timed drops. Those inconsistencies have TCU ranked 22nd in yards per play and 37th in points per play, compared to ninth and 23rd last season.
So the fact is that TCU’s season is not over. All the Frogs’ goals are still in front of them. With the potential they have flashed and in a Big 12 that looks weak, a conference title is still very much in play. However, the fact is also that the Frogs have some major concerns on both sides of the ball. If they don’t become more consistent on offense and defense, all those preseason hopes will evaporate very quickly. That’s the macro view for the Frogs right now. It’s up to them what that perspective looks like in December.
Four-Down Territory:
1. KaVontae Turpin’s knee injury is a major hit.
And it’s even more disheartening given the sophomore had been putting together such an electric season. Through two games, Turpin led the nation in all-purpose yards (236 per game).
He had also begun stepping into a bigger role on the offense, providing Kenny Hill with a consistent, reliable target. Even after catching just two passes against the Cyclones, he still leads the team in catches (16) and receiving yards (196). And beyond that, he had begun showing signs of leadership and maturity, even at a young age.
In a two-minute drill late in the first half against South Dakota State, he made an 18-yard grab for a first down, then sprang to his feet and reminded Hill, his junior quarterback, to call timeout. On one of his two big catches against Arkansas, he felt a defender chasing him down and put both hands on the football to defend against an attempt to strip the ball. That kind of awareness, for a true sophomore, is impressive.
The severity of his left knee injury hasn’t been made public, but any time he misses will be a significant loss for TCU’s offense and special teams.
(UPDATE: The Star-Telegram’s Carlos Mendez reports that Turpin has a torn PCL but that the injury may not require surgery, which could allow Turpin to return in four to six weeks.)
2. Deante’ Gray’s move to cornerback is extremely obvious in hindsight, and I’m mad I didn’t expect it before the game.
Gary Patterson has pulled this once before, against the same opponent no less. Gray switched from receiver to cornerback after his freshman season, but Patterson had him play corner against the Cyclones in 2013 while Jason Verrett nursed a shoulder injury.
Gray looked good in coverage, and even when he got beat, he had the speed to make up ground on receivers quickly. His tackling, like the rest of the defense, needs work. However, it was a smart move by Patterson. With all the depth at receiver and (ironically) Turpin taking Gray’s starting spot at H-receiver, it was a good way to get some veteran leadership and another talented athlete in the secondary, which desperately needed it.
On the other side of the field, Jeff Gladney’s injury is significant because he and Gray actually gave the Frogs a pretty solid cornerback pairing. Gladney, in his first game as TCU’s top corner, allowed Allen Lazard to make just one catch for eight yards. Even with how abysmal Iowa State’s offense had been to that point, Lazard had averaged 120 yards receiving in the Cyclones’ first two games. He’ll likely finish the season as second- or third-team all-Big 12.
TCU probably gave Gladney a little more help over the top than it normally would give its field corner, but it was a promising showing. That’s why the injury has to be even more frustrating. Now if Gladney misses any time, TCU will need Ranthony Texada, whose struggles forced the team to go to Gray in the first place, to make some major strides pretty quickly.
3. The Frogs should run the ball more. They probably won’t run the ball more.
With TCU’s struggles with efficiency on offense, the Frogs could use a source of consistent yardage. They found one in the first half against Iowa State in Kyle Hicks, and then they promptly abandoned him.
TCU ran the ball with Hicks 11 times for 108 yards in the first half. Even if you take away his 64-yard touchdown run, he still averaged 4.4 yards per carry. The Frogs’ first three scoring drives, which resulted in 17 points, all featured Hicks heavily.
So of course, in the second half, he got one carry.
This is TCU’s M.O. under Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie, and it’s been the one continuous problem with their offense. The Air Raid is a pass-first offense, and the coaches consider the scheme’s quick throws to the outside to be an extension of the running game. However, when you’ve had running backs like B.J. Catalon, Green and now Hicks, why wouldn’t you feature them in your offense just a little bit more?
Meacham will say that his play calls are based on what the opposing defense doing, and he’s right. If a team is dropping seven or eight men into coverage consistently, TCU suddenly loves to run the ball. That’s what the Frogs did against Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas State in 2014. It’s what they did against Texas Tech and, to a lesser extent, Baylor in 2015. But the reality is that unless the defense dictates that TCU has to run the ball to win, its commitment to the ground game is flaky.
Meacham and Cumbie are extremely creative with their passing game, constantly trying to find new ways to get their best receivers the ball in favorable matchups. They’ll even do the same for their running backs out of the backfield. But at some point, they should try to lend some of that same creativity to the running game, given that their best and most consistent player on offense is probably Hicks and they’ve got a quarterback in Hill who’s adept at running the read-option.
They probably won’t though. It’s not in their DNA.
4. Patterson has some safety concerns.
A quarter of the way through the regular season, TCU has yet to force an interception, due largely to the underwhelming play of its safeties. Patterson has harped on how his safeties have played for three weeks, and their play is part of the reason TCU’s defense has underperformed expectations this season.
For one thing, we all undersold the significance of Derrick Kindred’s departure. He was an all-Big 12 player in 2015 despite playing most of the year with a broken collarbone. Now the Frogs are stuck with the reality of being thin at safety for the first time in years.
Denzel Johnson has been as good as expected at strong safety. He’s a long, athletic guy who can make plays in the run game, rushing the passer and in coverage. His pass defense hasn’t been as great as some would have hoped, but overall he’s still one of the Frogs’ best players on defense.
The other two safety positions in TCU’s 4–2–5 have been a major concern. The assumption was that Kenny Iloka would return from his knee injury and take over at weak safety, allowing Nick Orr to slide into Kindred’s spot and giving TCU a trio of lanky, athletic safeties that could fly all over the field.
However, Iloka hasn’t cracked the starting lineup. He’s healthy enough to play on special teams, so it’s unclear if he just isn’t good enough to start or if there’s still some lingering effects from his injury that keep him from getting a larger number of snaps.
Meanwhile, Orr hasn’t quite developed into the player people expected him to become when he started in Week 1 last year. He started out playing corner for the Frogs in 2015, but less than a month into the season he started getting beat. That began happening right around the time Kindred got hurt. So the Frogs began moving him between weak safety and free safety, depending on if Kindred was healthy enough to play.
This season, he’s been solid for the Frogs, but he doesn’t bring the same ball hawk skills Chris Hackett had in 2014 at the weak position, and he doesn’t have the hard-hitting physicality or the coverage abilities Kindred had at free or as a nickelback.
Then there’s Niko Small, who has flashed potential but is still only a true sophomore. And at free safety, which is a position entrusted with a lot of responsibility in Patterson’s defense, he’s going to go through growing pains.
Behind those guys, there’s just not many other options. JUCO transfer Markell Simmons lost out to Small for the starting job. Ridwan Issahaku made five starts last season but eventually got passed over at weak safety in favor of Orr. Michael Downing doesn’t have the speed to be an every-down player, and Arico Evans is a sophomore with no career starts.
The Frogs’ next best option might be former safety and current linebacker Travin Howard, an option they experimented with against Arkansas. But TCU’s biggest issue is just lack of experience. When the Frogs fielded one of Patterson’s best defenses ever in 2014, they had Sam Carter, a fifth-year senior who obsessed over watching film, Chris Hackett, an athletic freak who had already been starting for two years, and Kindred, who had started the final three games in 2013 and had gained enough of Patterson’s trust to cross-train at three positions.
When you have that much experience and talent in your defensive backfield, you’re not going to give up easy throws and you’re going to force a lot of turnovers, which is what TCU did in 2014. But TCU’s most experienced player in the secondary right now is Johnson, who is only in his second season as a starter. When that’s all taken into account, TCU’s big zero in the interceptions column makes a lot more sense.
